Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

i wouldn't bet anything on this 7-5 wager.

if i had 1.25 million and didn't want to bust my ass working any longer then i am in protection mode. losing hurts 10x's more than the thrill of winning.


however, if working is easy and i am making an almost guaranteed $200,000/yr then i risk maybe $10,000 of it.

actually i dont even do that becasue i am against gambling.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

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a) i think david would bet ((1.2 * .5) - .5) / 1.2 = 1/12th of his bankroll

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

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This isn't a repeated game.

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Doesn't need to be.

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the Kelly criterion, or Kelly formula, is a formula used to maximize the long-term growth rate of repeated plays of a given gamble that has positive expected value.

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Short-term simply has to do with how much you value your money and how much "gamble" is in you, no formula will fit that.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

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actually i dont even do that becasue i am against gambling.

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And you're posting here why?

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

I would probably bet 20-25% of my br. Notice that I also am pretty overrolled the stakes I play, and I have blown 10-20% of my roll a couple of times in massive tiltsessions. So I know losing 25% really wouldnt kill me. Guess Im still a nit for having 100+ buyins tho..

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

A. Kelley Obv.

B. Most would over bet

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

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honestly i think people generally might gamble more than you expect. there is that popular tv show... i forget what it is called but there are all the different suitcases with different amounts of money in them, and people get offered buyouts by some dude, and they have to decide whether to take the buyout or continue to gamble.

im always really surprised at these poor families who pass up on 100k to go for more, when they have a 1 in 4 (or whatever) shot of getting like $50.

i dunno, just sort of an anecdote, but either that show selects people that tend to be gamblers, or people are bigger gamblers than you would think.

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You're talking about Deal or No Deal. The banker is essentially making an offer on the specific suitcase you hold. 95% of the time the offer on the suitcase is lower than the expected value of the suitcase. People still take the money a good portion of the time, indicating they are risk averse. The few times the offer was better than the EV, the contestant took the money.

It is fair to say that the majority of the American public is much nittier than Sklansky.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

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a) i think david would bet ((1.2 * .5) - .5) / 1.2 = 1/12th of his bankroll

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

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This isn't a repeated game.

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Doesn't need to be.

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the Kelly criterion, or Kelly formula, is a formula used to maximize the long-term growth rate of repeated plays of a given gamble that has positive expected value.

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Short-term simply has to do with how much you value your money and how much "gamble" is in you, no formula will fit that.

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Utility formulas will fit that.

Saying Kelly doesn't apply to one time only situations is like saying you shouldn't use EV calcs to figure out whether to take a one time only bet.

That being said, Kelly won't necessarily be best if your utility from of differing bankroll sizes does not work on a linear scale, or if you gain utility from gambling more.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

I read somwehere that:

"You may think that a particular play is profitable, but sometimes it may not be the best play because an alternative play is more profitable."

While risking 10% of your bankroll is profitable, you make even more profit risking 100% of your bankroll.

"Therefore [risking 100%] has the higher positive expectation and is the better play."

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

this is retarded. you are a nit because you play limit.

Re: My Answers
 

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Any good gambler who says more than 25 percent is a moron.

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dear mr. sklansky,
if you want to be one of us, which you apparently do, you're gonna have to start spelling it "moran"

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

I think risking 20% is a good all around amount.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

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A. How much do you think I would REALLY bet as a percentage of my bankroll?


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You will bet full Kelly.

For example if you have a 40% edge you bet 40% of your bankroll.

You won't bet much less than half Kelly in any event.


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B. What proportion of all 100K to 10 Mil Americans would bet a higher proportion of their bankroll (lets also elimate those with pressing expenses)?

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I don't know about Americans but for Canadians my guess is 5% will bet much more than full Kelly.

15% will be around Kelly to half Kelly.

Anyone who bets much less than half Kelly is a nit... My guess 80% of the population is probably a nit.

The above stats are just made up guesses...

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

oh hay there!

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

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Needs more beedogs imo, do you see why?

http://beedogs.com/index_files/image002.jpg

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lmfao


Bee Dog ftw

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Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

sick lock on the did david get hacked thread

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

man sklansky is posting alot

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

50% works for me.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

I'll take 7/5 on my life.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

sklansky how bored have you been lately?

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

100k and 10 mil are two very different numbers

if i have 100k ill bet 100 percent without thinking twice

if i have 1 mil, id probably bet like a quarter of it, still leaving me pretty comfortable if i lose, id bet less cuz its a lot harder to rebuild

if i have 5 mil, id probably bet like 20%, iof i lose i still got 4 mil who cares

if i have 10 mil id actually probably bet half, i might go on tilt for a whi;e if i lose the bet, but really its worth the risk as i dont need more than 5 mil to be set living comfortably for life and its a huge +ev bet

but im a [censored] sicko