Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Caveat: I have no experience of high buy-in B&M tourneys, so I'm looking at this as a high buy-in PP MTT.

Let's review CO's actions. A tight player limps from the CO, to me that means small PP, hoping to flop a set, perhaps suited connectors looking for a cheap flop. He calls the raise which again leans me towards the small PP.

He checks the flop. Would he do this with the T9 out there? He's got to assume either one or both his opponents are holding overcards. However, he may also believe that the preflop aggressor will likely bet into this flop thus giving him the opportunity to check raise. This plan goes amiss when our hero checks. Now the scarey queen arrives and he realises he has to make a move. I don't think he'd do this with a smaller pair that hadn't hit or, say, 98. Nicely weighted bet too.

In other words, despite not betting the flop I think he has a made hand. 33/T9 or possibly JT (99 would raise pre flop). His range for us includes only draws and overpairs the only ones he needs to worry about being QQ, TT & possibly 99. I think if we raise he'll reraise us all in, I also think he'd call our all in bet.

I call, hoping for a scarey card on the river, with which to dislodge him, but if a blank comes, I'll be content to play on with 9,000+ chips.

The problem is MJ; I haven't got a clue what he's got [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] and if he comes over the top, I'm pretty certain I can't call, especially given his solid poker playing profile.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Best card in the deck (or worst) I'd raise to 5000.

a) it looks like you had a set, or maybe KJs, so you have FE.
b) you now got lots of outs for the river, assuming he actually calls you.

If he or MJ pushes, i'd call getting 2.5:1.


edit: if you are 35% to win if your bet is called, then your raise has to take it down only 25% of the time to be profitable.

Not sure if that'll happen, but i think your FE is bigger now than it was on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're gonna bet half your stack here? Why not push?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I think pushing here looks wierd, and i know you're commited to call a push, but i think i like giving him the opportunit to just call, and then if we brick on the river we dont have to lose the rest, though we could try a bluff on the river, but i dont think i would.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't call because the pot it's currently laying me only 2.5-1. With implied odds, I think this call is barely justifiable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please do the math before saying things that can be calculated easily. You have 12 outs to the nuts on the river. You know 6 cards, so there are 34 bad cards and 12 good cards--so you're a 2.83:1 dog. Considering that a K gives many other reasonable hands a good second-best hand, you've probably got implied odds just from that. Factor in that your A and your 8 are pretty likely good, and call.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I'm happy to see that the original Hero took the same line I would have preflop and on the Flop...anyways

My original range for CO was [JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A3o,KTo+,QJo,JTo]

After checking the F and betting the T his range has been narrowed to [TT-99, 33, A3s, A9s, ATs, AQs, AJs, AKs, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A3o, A9o, ATo, AQo, AJo, AKo, KTo+, QJo, JTo]. He will call/raise a reraise with 20% of that range [TT, 99, KJo/s, T9, 33]) , so equity wise assuming I reraise the pot and MJ is folding:

CO: Fold= +3450 (80% of the time)
Calls/Pushes= -5000 (20% of the time)
Simplified EV= +1760 (very good compared to the nearly neutral EV play of calling) Of course, MJ is far from certainly folding. Now let's deal with MJ...

My original range for MJ was [22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo +]. After checking the Flop and Turn it has been narrowed to everything except [TT,99,33,T9s,KJo/s]. There's a 10% chance he's utilizing game theory and playing his set/twopair/straight too passively.

If you call there's a chance MJ will take it for weakness and raise as a bluff. But if you reraise the Turn it will be very hard for him to do that and he will probably fold 90% of the time.

Conclusion: Raise to 5000. This is heavily predicated on the Hero's read that CO is Tight which means he will fold a high enough percentage of hands to make a raise the best EV. And there's no reason to call a Push either because you have around 11.5 outs (a few outs are counterfeit when an opponent has a good enough hand to Push) so that's about 25% and after a pot reraise a Push would require you to call 5900 into a pot of 23750 which is about 25%. Being that having 5900 chips with blinds at 100-200 is perfectly comfortable, that neutral EV play should be avoided.

BTW Lloyd: who are the experts and when are they going to chime in? They're already a few streets late

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just don't think we're getting paid off too much if we hit our flush or straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why we raise now.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is faulty logic.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think that the CO is going to check/fold his KJ when the 2 falls on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he would fold it to a reasonable value bet. While you may get him to call a half a pot size bet, he isn't giving you too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well that's enough to make the call correct.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I'm just curious about what Sossman's image is like here.

I'm not likely to raise KJ here preflop or to slow play a set or an overpair against multiple callers on an even semi-coordinated board so it's hard for me to imagine that someone would believe me if I were to suddenly semi-bluff the turn here. Would it be consistent at all with his play for him to have a set or the straight here? Would CO have seen enough of his play to know if it's consistent or inconsistent?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

MJ probably doesn't have a hand, as he would have bet by now with this draw-heavy board.

CO probably DOES have a hand, because the Qc is a terrible card to bluff into. We raised preflop, then didn't bet the flop shorthanded. The most logical hands to play that way are overcards, meaning:

AK - overcards and gutshot draw
KQ - top pair, gutshot
KJ - made straight
AJ - OESD
QJ - top pair, OESD

The card putting a flush draw on board after it was checked around is also troublesome for a bluff. Assuming CO is a good enough player to realize all of this, of course.

With all that in mind, seems like a semi-bluff won't work, and the only river that's troublesome to play is an A; we bet/raise if one of our nut draws gets there, and I don't think we should feel at all bad about folding if a J hits. Seems to be a call.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I'm raising the turn to 5000 for the following reasons:

- Number of outs: I have a tremendous number of outs (at least 15, at most 21). If the CO re-raises me all-in, the pot will be 17850, easily giving me the right price to call.

- My hand: Although I have alot of outs, I'm still drawing. I overbet the pot a little, hoping that the CO will fold. At this point, I'm really not worried about the small blind, who has checked twice.


I put the CO on the following holdings:

1) A pair of tens w/ top or decent kicker

2) A pair of nines w/ a straight or flush draw

3) Two-Pair (Queens & Tens, or Tens & Nines)

4) A set of threes


If he has anything in groups 1 or 2, my raise will probably make him fold. If he has anything in groups 3 or 4, he'll most likely put me all-in. By virtue of hand combinations, It's more likely he has a group 1 or 2 hand than a group 3 or 4 hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
And a less probable scenario - in the event MJ has a better A we can get him out and buy ourselves 2 more outs maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Name one better A that would:

-Play the hand the way he has played it so far (AQ and AK should have bet some time ago, AT may also have bet the flop)
-Overcall your call on this draw-happy board (smaller paired A's have to worry about the fact that they could be way behind and some of their "outs" put straights and flushes on the board (especially since he does not have the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm counting on villain paying off a value bet on the river because he's got a mountain of chips and my draw is pretty disguised.


[/ QUOTE ] We checked the flop and called the turn. This screams draw to me.

[ QUOTE ]
Co has over twice your chip stack and very likely has a set or two pair that will call your push because of the chance that you are betting a draw or AQ/KQ or AA here.


[/ QUOTE ] I would think he makes this same bet with KQ, QJ, J10. He has shown no strength at all in this hand. He has limp/called preflop and has checked the turn. If he has Q10 he probably bets the flop. So the only reasonable two pair hand is 109 and I'm not so sure he wouldn't bet that on the flop. He's tight, not scared.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

If he bet less I would raise, but I hate calling a push 3 bet after i raised with a draw and only 1 card to come, so in this case I would call.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would think he makes this same bet with KQ, QJ, J10.

[/ QUOTE ]

JT bets the flops (the same as the QT) if it doesn't then QT is also a likely holding on the turn. QJ semi-bluffs the flop or check-raises. It probably doesn't suddenly bet the turn because it's afraid of being raised off the draw if villain has AQ, as slow played set or AA.

What most likely bets the turn is a set that was looking to check-raise the flop, a super draw that plans on pushing over a raise, a turned straight, or two pair.

So you call because you've got little folding equity to those kinds of hands and you hope that big stacked villain still pays you off when you make your hand because he can't fold to a value bet on the river given how many chips he has and the fact that he's attached to his hand and he knows that you are fully capable of betting a scare card on the river.

When I said your draw is disguised what I meant was that you didn't bet a two flush board, check the turn, and then bet out on the river when it hit. It's hard to believe that the turn is the perfect card for your hand that lets you call when villain bets more than enough to shut out your odds of drawing to anything but a superdraw (remember Sossman's not an internet donk) as opposed to you calling with something like AA/AQ/KQ that doesn't reraise because it can't stand a push and you think there's a good chance villain is betting the draw or a weaker hand and depending on the river action you may be able to bluff villain off a stronger hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

This looks a lot like a call. We just don't have a lot of FE here, and even though we have a big draw, we'd like to see the river without having to put in all our chips.

The risk of calling is a raise from the SB but I just don't think it's very likely that the SB goes for a check-raise on the turn, on this dangerous board, after it's been checked around on the flop. And there are too many ways you or the CO can have a real hand for him to check-raise this with air.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I can see a very good case fr a semi-bluff raise here. With at least 10 outs on the river to the winner (assuming not only that aces wont be good enough, but also that the 9 and 3 of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would give CO a full house).

I'm sticking with my read on the CO, namely that he has a set of 9s. As such, I think he would reraise a semi-bluff to protect his hand. I call here and hope MJ does the same.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

most likely the queen hit the co. (yet u have a draw to a royal flush, that alone is enough to call if he pushed all in--just kidding) a call here is both weak and scary. weak beacuse looks like ur on draw. scary beacause it may look like ur slow playing a monster. he could have two clubs and be semi bluffing. im leary of the call because when a blank comes on the turn its over. and a raise only walks into the co's possible set. yet i say call with all the outs.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I flat call here as I now have a great draw but I'm certainly behind at this point with a tight player making a potsized bet into 2 players and I don't believe raising here after checking on the flop is getting him to fold a good hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

fold..you lost the lead on the flop

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I'm not sure anybody has recommended this, probably because people are afraid to bust on an all-out bluff. Call the turn. Obviously get whatever chips you can if you hit one of your draws. In the event that you miss, you fold to a bet and push if he checks. If he really had a good hand, which he bet on the turn and got a call with, he would almost always bet into us again on the river. The fact that he's slowing down here indicates that he's probably planning to check-call a reasonable bet, and he's hoping you'll give him a good price. Either that, or he's looking for a free showdown with an A-high/small pocket pair type hand and will fold to any bet. He's very rarely checking with the intention of calling an all-in. Seriously, who does that? When did we give him any indication that we wouldn't check behind him? I take his show of weakness and drive him out of the hand here almost every time.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

The CO is tight, but is he aggressive or passive?

I believe I'm behind here, and have less outs than we may think. We are either against a set, JJ, or KJ. So, an 8, A, 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are all tainted, IMO. That leaves 7 clubs and 3 King outs. If any of the tainted outs come, it is going to be hard to call a large bet.

So, with position, I like a call here. I may be put to the test with a tough river, but I prefer getting all my chips in with the best hand in the early part of tournaments, and I don't have the best hand, just the best draw, right now. I call, hoping to squeeze out a river card and a lot of COs chips.

I forgot to take Miami John into consideration. He could conceivably make a big check raise here in hopes of taking down the pot. However, with CO being classified as tight, I'd have to believe MJ also sees this, and is going to fold all but a few big hands. And a raise isn't going to push him off anything he is check raising with. So, if MJ raises behind, we have an interesting decision, depending on what CO does. I believe if MJ raises, CO will push and we will be forced out of the hand. If MJ calls, we are in an even better position. And if he folds, which I believe he will do, we are hoping for a nice river.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

This thread is 2 months old, why the reply all the sudden.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Because I'm just reading it. I often have very little time and only read a few posts. I've got time now and I'm catching up on my reading. I posted because I wanted to remember what I was thinking when I get to the rest of the hand at a later time.

Is that OK with you?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Post away! I would hope these are read and reviewed on an ongoing basis so any new additions or thoughts would just add to the discussion.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Im dumb sry

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Just call. We have a big draw and direct odds to hit it, plus a tiny bit of implied odds. There's a difference between playing to accumulate chips and getting ourselves into situations where our chips go in as a clear dog.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Wow, I just reread this thread as well as PF/Flop, and three things come to mind:

1. I wish I had posted (been around to post?) in these.

2. A lot of really great players have suggested some really not great lines.

3. I am 100x the player I was when I first read this thread.

Seriously, this is the biggest confidence boost evar. I remember deliberating and going back and forth on all these streets the first time around, and now I can confidently snap-off my line here with no second thoughts. And referring to #2, it's not that I'm saying peepz is dumb, just that even the most respected of posters on this forum have obviously improved dramatically over the last year.

Oh, and this is a call on this street.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I'm sure we're behind CO. He could have KJ for straight, or k10 for draw and pair. I say we call for chance at monster, even if it screams draw. FWIW, MJ refers to Michael Jordan, not Miami John Cernuto.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Maybe I'm just wierd but again my logic is totally different, but I arrive at a common conclusion.

The CO is on KJ, QT or TT. Why?

He limped pre-flop to see what came on the flop, had enough faith in the hand to call the extra 450 pre-flop AND wasn't strong enough to bet out before seeing what the pre-flop raiser (the button) did. Now, with that Q, he's on the attack. Could it be a bluff? Sure, but that's a lot less likely when it's 3 way, it's early in the tournament and there are two people he has to deal with. However, he has nearly twice the stack of his opponents so, of the 3, he's the most likely to try a bluff since he can most easily absorb the hit if it goes sideways on him.

All things considered, he's most likely holding 2 pair, a set or a straight. This means KJ, QT or TT. remember, if he had QQ or JJ he couldn't have afforded to let his opponents see a free card on the turn and he's not likely to be on AA because he would have tried to isolate one opponent pre-flop. KK is a longshot and not very likely, but still possible if he was trying to slow play pre-flop... but I doubt that he's reckless enough to do that from the way he's described.

Now, this is where my logic deviates...

Any hand that the CO could have is the one we need to be concerned with, I agree. Any hand that the SB (MJ) might have had that would justify his actions so far is a hand that we will lose to if we lose to the CO, or that we will beat if we beat the CO. So we will either win the hand or come out sucking hind teat. Can we use that?

Yes.

If we push, it's likely that we'll get called and be a dog. Tournaments are about survival and pushing here and now isn't going to help us survive. If we raise 5k then the SB will most likely fold and we'll nearly be pot committed. If the CO calls then we're either all in on the river or we have to let it go... leaving us severly crippled and easy to pick off with a micro-stack. And for those lovely options what do we get?

We get 6950 for our 5000, because the SB folds... and that only if we're not re-raised all in by the CO. This is looking to be about as fun as a root canal.

But what if we only call? The SB is going to be looking at getting 4950 for his 1500 and even if he's only got an over pair, he'll probably call. It's extremely unlikely that he's going to raise into 2 callers who just ponied up 1500 each because, considering what we have and what we put the CO on, the SB can't be very far ahead, if he's even ahead at all.

By calling we will most likely get a call from the SB too, making the total pot 4950 for our 1500... which is a heck of a lot better than 6950 for 5000. This move also allows us to preserve our starting 10,000 so we won't be crippled if we're forced to let this hand go on the river.

When I look at it all that way, using my wierd-ling logic and looking at our great draws, it's an auto-call.

Vorlin