Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Falcons/Panthers under
Colts
Steelers
Browns


I agree that I don't like the numbers (as opposed to writing team names) so much. As mentioned earlier, it makes it harder to see the consensus.


Thanks so much, Homer. This is a fun contest and I'm glad you took over.

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

COWBOYS/JAGS UNDER
BENGALS
STEELERS
GIANTS

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Homer, thanks for picking this back up

400 Niners
300 Bills
200 Panthers
100 Lions

-Ftball

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Steelers
Lions
49ers
Chicago/GB over

Thanks for taking this over Homer. I really need to redeem myself after last year's implosion. So I'm looking to start off by going 0-4. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Steelers over Dolphins
Steelers are still a good team. Charlie Batch doesn't change the offense all that much. The defense will still be tough for a mediocre to poor Dolphins offensive line to handle. Culpepper looks like he has had an anchor strapped to his ass, killing that mobility that would have been helpful in this game. Steelers are still a 3 point favorite in my mind so you've got to take the value.

Lions+6.5 over Seahawks

Maranelli is a very good coach who will really toughen up the Lions this year. The Lions are going to play teams tough and surprise a lot of people. I'm also looking for a bit of a Superbowl hangover for the Seahawks. While I'm a bit scared of this matchup, I can't pass up 6.5 at home if I feel this way about both teams.

49ers +8 over Cards
This just reaks of a trap game to me. The 49ers are an improved team. Of course it would be hard not to improve from how awful they have been. They will jump up and bite a few people in the arse this year. Arizona has the whole new stadium and all of the distractions that go with opening week there.

Bears/Packers over

Huh, a Bears over? The Bears offense will be a bit more explosive this year and their defense will head back to the mean a bit. (and I say all of this as a Bears fan) There will be some very low unders early in the season and I plan on banging them for a few weeks.

Oh, to anyone that doesn't know, fade me like it is nobodies business.

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Broncos/Rams over
Falcons
Bengals/Chiefs under
Jets

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Eagles
Bucs
Bengals/Cheifs over
Bears/Packers under

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Panthers $400
49ers $300
Chargers $200
Cowboys $100

Thanks for picking up the ball and keeping this going Homer.

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

"we should vote on this, because I sure don't want that rule changed"




Yes, please continue to allow side/total on same game. Thanks and great work Homer.

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Colts/Giants UNDER 48
Bengals/Chiefs UNDER 46.5
Broncos/Rams UNDER 45.5
Seahawks/Lions UNDER 45.5


Every year there are horrible Offensive errors during week one and surprising low scores.
I'm starting the year off with this most ridiculous of 'systematic picks', especially as preseason coverage has to be researched if you're from England, (rather than forcefed) and I'm not yet up to speed.

Rely on those uncoordinated new offenses to win me some money on the unders.

Thanks for running this Homer, I look forward to it every year.

Lori (Top on 3+1 picking 'push' bets 2 years running)

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

213/214 under
221/222 under
223/224 under
206

Thanks for taking this over Homer

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

400 Eagles
300 Chargers
200 falcons
100 patriots

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Consensus data:

All right, I'm really bored at work, so I went through and tabulated the bets placed on each of the 64 different lines so far in this contest. I'm not sure how much of it I should pass along, since it could provide an unfair advantage to people who haven't locked in picks yet, so for now I'll just share info on tonight's game and one or two other particularly interesting facts. If I get positive responses, and people convince me they aren't worried about this damaging contest integrity, I could give more detailed info, since I'm sure some people out there would be interested in following particularly strong consensus with some real bets of their own.

So here's what I'll share for now. Total amount wagered so far: $79,000. $62,200 of that is on spreads, and $16,800 is on totals. Of the money wagered on spreads, $5100 (1/12th of all spread bets) is on the Steelers, with only $800 on the Dolphins. Since there is clearly no reason anyone here might have had any bias when they picked Pittsburgh, we can assume this means that the Steelers are a lock at PK, so go hammer that line. Bet like, I don't know, $1100 or something.

The one game from down the road that I want to point out is San Diego. The Chargers have had $3800 (1/16th of all spread bets) placed on them at -3, while the Raiders are one of two teams who has not yet had ANYONE pick them. This is a pretty strong consensus, so if you feel comfortable following 2+2 on anything, this is probably your best bet. Especially since according to SBR lines you can get San Diego -3 (+114) at Pinnacle right now.

Do you want to hear more? Or should I shut up and stop helping the people who haven't picked yet?

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

$400 Bengals/Chiefs u46.5
$300 Steelers pk
$200 Jaguars -2
$100 Ravens/Bucs o33.5


Many thanks to Homer for stepping up and running the competition this year. You, sir, are a mensch.

I'm figuring that KC's offense has downgraded due to age and retirement, while their defense has finally improved to "decent" with their free agent additions plus some recent draft picks maturing. Combine that with Carson Palmer feeling shaky about his knee, and I really like the under here.

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

I don't think you're giving away too much. If someone really wants to go with who others like it's not too hard to browse through and spot teams being taken a lot (except for the fact that some people are using numbers). I know I saw a fair amount of "Eagles" and "Bengals" myself while browsing posts. Think there were a lot of "Bears" too.

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you're giving away too much. If someone really wants to go with who others like it's not too hard to browse through and spot teams being taken a lot (except for the fact that some people are using numbers). I know I saw a fair amount of "Eagles" and "Bengals" myself while browsing posts. Think there were a lot of "Bears" too.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well you're certainly right that there were lots of Eagles. They were far and away the most popular pick, with their $7900 dwarfing Pittsburgh's second place $5100. Their opponent Houston has only gotten $800 in action. It's a less useful pick, though, for someone who wants to follow along with actual bets, since the line has moved to -5.5 now at several places.

Also, since I mentioned there were two teams that hadn't received a single pick, let me just add that the other unanimous choice is San Francisco (with $3300) at +8.

Then there is Indianapolis -3, with their $4100, to just $400 for the Giants. Also extremely popular is the under in this game, with $2000 riding on it (more than is on any other total) and just $300 on the over.

Other unanimously popular totals include Cowboys/Jaguars under ($1400 to $0), Vikings/Redskins over ($1200 to $0), and Falcons/Panthers under ($1000 to $0). Not unanimous, but still popular, is Bears/Packers under, by a margin of $1800 to $600.

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Eagles
Vikings/Redskins over 34.5
Bears/Packers under 35
Bears

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Bills
Dolphins
Browns
49ers

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Eagles
49ers
Packers
Steelers

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

lions
bills/pats over
texans
falcons

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Pittsburgh pk $400
San Diego -3 $300
Minnesota +4.5 $200
New Orleans +3 $100

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Morphling29 picks

Ravens
Cowboys
Bengals/Chiefs over
Bears

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

$400 Eagles
$300 Bills
$200 Ravens @ Bucs Under
$100 Bengals @ Chiefs Over

**edited for team names

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

$400 Chargers
$300 Eagles
$200 Bengals
$100 Rams

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

100 Steelers
200 Titans
300 Packers
400 Chargers

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

still open?

400 Jags
300 Bengals/Chiefs over
200 Falcons
100 Bucs

thanks for running this homer

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Packers
Seahawks
Colts
Cardinals

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
Packers
Seahawks
Colts
Cardinals

[/ QUOTE ]
Someone FINALLY puts a unit on the Cardinals!

The Raiders are now the only team who haven't been bet on at least once in this contest.

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Bears
Jets/Titans under 36
Texans
Saints

Looking foward to the season!

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Chargers
Bears/Packers UNDER
Panthers
Jets/Titans UNDER

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

thanks Homer, this looks like a big turnout so far

400 Titans
300 Browns
200 Panthers
100 Cowboys

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Patriots
Ravens
Vikings
Under Cowboys/Jaguars

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Bears - 3.5
Eagles -4.5
Over chiefs/Bengals 46.5

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Bills
Lions
Jaguars
Packers

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bears - 3.5
Eagles -4.5
Over chiefs/Bengals 46.5

[/ QUOTE ]

so are you checking the turn?

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Chargers
Bears/Pack Under
Seahawks
Eagles

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Taking my typical contrarian view

400 Texans
300 Lions
200 Rams
100 Chiefs

Thanks Homer!

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

If you ever get the chance to do the stats again Mr. Baseball it would be fantastic. I do realise though that it's now a monster task to even attempt it.

Lori

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

Jaguars
49ers/Cardinals under
Falcons
Lions

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1 MY BAD~!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bears - 3.5
Eagles -4.5
Over chiefs/Bengals 46.5

[/ QUOTE ]

400 Bears
300 Eagles
200 Over chiefs/Bengals
100 DALLAS
revised! sorry about the mistake!

Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you ever get the chance to do the stats again Mr. Baseball it would be fantastic. I do realise though that it's now a monster task to even attempt it.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]
What stats are those? I'm keeping track of the total amount wagered on each game, to find our "consensus" picks, so if you mean that it's already being kept, though not posted... yet.