Re: DERB
 

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I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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41.65%

mine is 41.98...

sick i tell you, sick.

-Barron

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I just wanted to check Nate's BB/100 calcs based on the stats:

BB/100 = (.753 * VPIP) - (.0102 * (VPIP^2)) + (.435 * W$SD) + (.658 * W$WSF) - 56.12

His comes out to about 6.4457BB/100

Pretty silly, although I don't know what the outcome of Nate's formula was! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: DERB
 

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I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies?

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i have his W$WSF at about 42

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My W$WSF in the 30/60 is 44.7 with a W$SD just over 52, although I've been running well in that game myself. Your W$WSF should be pretty high in this game since so many pots are contested 2- and 3-handed.

Re: DERB
 

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RE: The lotto winner comment.

Exactly. Read this post if you are a non-believer.

a 2+2 lottery winner

We don't see the guys with these numbers who come in with 10k and go bust. Most of them go bust at 2/4. Some people have the roll and get lucky, that's poker guys.
-James

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ok so its a conditional probability if you break it down in 10k # of hands up to 100K...

what is the pr(winning at a rate of 3bb/100 given DERB's stats)=Pr(Derb) for A=10k hands. B=next 10khands. up to J=last 10k hands.

so the Pr(Derb|{A-J}) is what we're lookin for...and i'll tell ya thats definately lottery winner style probability.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

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I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies?

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i have his W$WSF at about 42

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My W$WSF in the 30/60 is 44.7 with a W$SD just over 52, although I've been running well in that game myself. Your W$WSF should be pretty high in this game since so many pots are contested 2- and 3-handed.

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well now i see where i need to improve abit...maybe i'll move to the HUSH forum for a while...either that or stop being your slot machine.

44% is real good nate....im at 41.98.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

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I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies?

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i have his W$WSF at about 42

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My W$WSF in the 30/60 is 44.7 with a W$SD just over 52, although I've been running well in that game myself. Your W$WSF should be pretty high in this game since so many pots are contested 2- and 3-handed.

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well now i see where i need to improve abit...maybe i'll move to the HUSH forum for a while...either that or stop being your slot machine.

44% is real good nate....im at 41.98.



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I'm at like 40% in full-handed 15/30 games so I'm sure it will come down some.

One thing is that I basically never open-limp in the 30, which should result in a higher W$WSF.

Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
 

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yea, im a dork

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I have had a long discussion with my 18 year old son about the differences between geeks, nerds and dorks.

Based upon that, Barron you are a geek not a dork. For what it's worth, being a geek is way, way better than being a dork.

Re: DERB
 

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I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies?

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i have his W$WSF at about 42

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My W$WSF in the 30/60 is 44.7 with a W$SD just over 52, although I've been running well in that game myself. Your W$WSF should be pretty high in this game since so many pots are contested 2- and 3-handed.

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well now i see where i need to improve abit...maybe i'll move to the HUSH forum for a while...either that or stop being your slot machine.

44% is real good nate....im at 41.98.



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I'm at like 40% in full-handed 15/30 games so I'm sure it will come down some.

One thing is that I basically never open-limp in the 30, which should result in a higher W$WSF.

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so i should stop limping 77 UTG? ... and 55 when the game looks good...you raise 77 that far outa position?

its too good to fold and i like limpers...i need to adjust pf strategy for this game i think so im ALWAYS raising utg, apparantly...

what about JTs (i limp 100% with it in the 15 game but only do so when the game doesn't look totally aggressive now...but then again, i dont lrr enough so limping should be inherently bad)

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

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I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies?

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i have his W$WSF at about 42

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My W$WSF in the 30/60 is 44.7 with a W$SD just over 52, although I've been running well in that game myself. Your W$WSF should be pretty high in this game since so many pots are contested 2- and 3-handed.

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well now i see where i need to improve abit...maybe i'll move to the HUSH forum for a while...either that or stop being your slot machine.

44% is real good nate....im at 41.98.



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I'm at like 40% in full-handed 15/30 games so I'm sure it will come down some.

One thing is that I basically never open-limp in the 30, which should result in a higher W$WSF.

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so i should stop limping 77 UTG? ... and 55 when the game looks good...you raise 77 that far outa position?

its too good to fold and i like limpers...i need to adjust pf strategy for this game i think so im ALWAYS raising utg, apparantly...

what about JTs (i limp 100% with it in the 15 game but only do so when the game doesn't look totally aggressive now...but then again, i dont lrr enough so limping should be inherently bad)

-Barron

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I have no fundamental problem with open-raising 77 or JTs from anywhere on the table depending on the usual things.

Re: DERB
 

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RE: The lotto winner comment.

Exactly. Read this post if you are a non-believer.

a 2+2 lottery winner

We don't see the guys with these numbers who come in with 10k and go bust. Most of them go bust at 2/4. Some people have the roll and get lucky, that's poker guys.
-James

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James,
I feel it's more likely that Poker Paul had forged his database results by purging his losing sessions, which is very easy to do in PT. He may not have been the "lottery winner" that his winrate would suggest he was.

Re: DERB
 

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[ QUOTE ]
RE: The lotto winner comment.

Exactly. Read this post if you are a non-believer.

a 2+2 lottery winner

We don't see the guys with these numbers who come in with 10k and go bust. Most of them go bust at 2/4. Some people have the roll and get lucky, that's poker guys.
-James

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James,
I feel it's more likely that Poker Paul had forged his database results by purging his losing sessions, which is very easy to do in PT. He may not have been the "lottery winner" that his winrate would suggest he was.

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I tend to believe him because he came back a few weeks later complaining about 280 bb downswing, which seemed pretty honest. Obviously there is no way to tell for sure.
-James

Re: DERB
 

I'd say the chances of him colluding are very low. He's not raising anyone out of pots with a partner because nearly every pot is 2 handed on the turn and the party 30/60 community would notice this very fast since there are only 6 tables. Everyone just plays together too much to get away with that.

He really just goes to war on the turn. He'll check behind a ton of rivers.

Also, so people know, W$WSF is around 10% higher for people in the 30/60 game since less people see each flop.

Lastly, I have a bit over 30k hands with him and he's about a 1.8 BB/100 winner on it. He's gonna have to run real good to get it up to 3.

Very lastly, I think socuties knows him or has at least spoken with him and undoubtably knows more about him then me. If anyone knows if he posts to 2+2 have him chime in.

-f

Re: DERB
 

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He's not raising anyone out of pots with a partner because nearly every pot is 2 handed on the turn and the party 30/60 community would notice this very fast since there are only 6 tables.

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Apparently this is not how teams collude. See my other post in this thread for a link to articles on this topic.

-Brad

Re: DERB
 

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Apparently this is not how teams collude. See my other post in this thread for a link to articles on this topic.


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Yes, good teams collude by denying others proper odds through folding when teammate is ahead. But him playing 30% of hands doesn't fit with that. Also I was more specifically replying to someone who thought he might be pumping it with a partner.

-f

Re: DERB
 

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Apparently this is not how teams collude. See my other post in this thread for a link to articles on this topic.

-Brad


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Ok, well I really don't know what a "proper" colluding team does, but if this is the case then never mind what I was saying.

Is a close to 50% folding to river bet very high in that game, or do people not bluff as much on the end? that still seemed to me like the strangest of his stats, esp combined with a high went to showdown, and a low wonSD% when called river bet. Maybe these are just the types of numbers that are normal with that high a VPIP and aggression levels though, i don't know?

anyways, you guys are probably right about how it woudl be tough to cheat in a game like that with so many "regulars". At the same time it would be tougher for Party to prove too much, since being at the same table with certain players all the time doesn't prove anything with only 6 games going. esp if you had several different accounts on different skins and switched off between them, it woudln't be that hard for a sophisticated colluder to slip under the radar i would think.

I do aggree with others that he's probably just running REALLY, REALLY hot, but just out of curiousity, what type of PT numbers would one have if they were colluding with other players?

Re: DERB
 

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Apparently this is not how teams collude. See my other post in this thread for a link to articles on this topic.

-Brad


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Ok, well I really don't know what a "proper" colluding team does, but if this is the case then never mind what I was saying.

Is a close to 50% folding to river bet very high in that game, or do people not bluff as much on the end? that still seemed to me like the strangest of his stats, esp combined with a high went to showdown, and a low wonSD% when called river bet. Maybe these are just the types of numbers that are normal with that high a VPIP and aggression levels though, i don't know?

anyways, you guys are probably right about how it woudl be tough to cheat in a game like that with so many "regulars". At the same time it would be tougher for Party to prove too much, since being at the same table with certain players all the time doesn't prove anything with only 6 games going. esp if you had several different accounts on different skins and switched off between them, it woudln't be that hard for a sophisticated colluder to slip under the radar i would think.

I do aggree with others that he's probably just running REALLY, REALLY hot, but just out of curiousity, what type of PT numbers would one have if they were colluding with other players?

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If I could see 2 others hands I wouldn't need to collude in the traditional way! I would always be a couple of seats closer to the button then everyone else.
If I am in the hijack seat and I am colluding with the button and SB I would have a huge advantage with my starting requirements which would result in very high Preflop #'s. I could basically start allot looser then everyone else with a huge advantage. I would appear to be a cannon b/c of my starting requirements but basically I would be 2 spots better then it appears.
This would be the perfect way to collude in a tight game like 30-60 Party.
Hogger

Re: DERB
 

I've noticed that playing opponents in this VPIP range is very difficult because, unlike your typical 2+2 TAG, I have trouble putting them on hands. I will have to check but I recall checking some 15/30 stats a while back and while most players with a >25 vpip are losers, some of the biggest winners were between 28 and 35. By contrast, supertights (<18) were sometime good winners and sometime slight losers (never big losers). I firmly believe that your avg player (like me) cannot win with such a high VPIP, but I also believe that it is more likely that the best player in the world has a much higher vpip than the typical 2+2er.

Re: DERB
 

very good point.
also, two 2+2ers say that they have 75k + hands on him and these aren't likely ALL the exact sames hands in both databases. if the overlap is 75% then he is winning his "streak" is more like 100k + hands.

Re: DERB
 

If he were colluding with one or two others, wouldn't there be one or two others whose stats also stick out like a sore thumb in that game?

Re: DERB
 

Not if you were smart about it!
Or maybe the most likely scenario he has hacked into a few players computers and can see their hole cards and he doesn't extract extra bets when he is in a hand with them to go undetected but does improve his position tons when they do not have a hand.
All I am saying is his stats and winrate are what I would expect if I could see 1 or 2 hands that act after me in a tight game!
Improving my position every round by a notch would be huge!

Re: DERB
 

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very good point.
also, two 2+2ers say that they have 75k + hands on him and these aren't likely ALL the exact sames hands in both databases. if the overlap is 75% then he is winning his "streak" is more like 100k + hands.

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I was thinking the same thing. Maybe even more hands

Re: DERB
 

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I've noticed that playing opponents in this VPIP range is very difficult because, unlike your typical 2+2 TAG, I have trouble putting them on hands. I will have to check but I recall checking some 15/30 stats a while back and while most players with a >25 vpip are losers, some of the biggest winners were between 28 and 35. By contrast, supertights (<18) were sometime good winners and sometime slight losers (never big losers). I firmly believe that your avg player (like me) cannot win with such a high VPIP, but I also believe that it is more likely that the best player in the world has a much higher vpip than the typical 2+2er.

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That's because these people run very well over a short period of time. Show me 5 guys with this sort of luck over 100k period of hands and I'll be totally stunned. But, you won't be able to show me that.


PS: Update on our man - last 2,100 hands I've played with him he's on a 12k+ slide.

Re: DERB
 

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very good point.
also, two 2+2ers say that they have 75k + hands on him and these aren't likely ALL the exact sames hands in both databases. if the overlap is 75% then he is winning his "streak" is more like 100k + hands.

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I was thinking the same thing. Maybe even more hands

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This is incorrect. They are giving numbers from compounded databases from the same source.
-James

Re: DERB
 

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-He has a very high W$WSF, esp for somebody with such a high VPIP.

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This is what really confuses me here. As Nate has shown in other posts, there should be something of an inverse correlation here. Taken alone, his W$WSF is good for the 30/60 game, but not better than other top players. The thing is, the other top players who have similar W$WSF numbers in that game have substantially lower VPIPs. And I am talking 10% or 12% lower, not 3% or 4%.

Re: DERB
 

could easily be collusion.


if there were 2-3+ accounts playing together, it would be easiest to only cash out 1 account. Thus, the other accounts lose to this guy on purpose.

Re: DERB
 

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could easily be collusion.


if there were 2-3+ accounts playing together, it would be easiest to only cash out 1 account. Thus, the other accounts lose to this guy on purpose.

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or they could just give the money to their friend lol...

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

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could easily be collusion.


if there were 2-3+ accounts playing together, it would be easiest to only cash out 1 account. Thus, the other accounts lose to this guy on purpose.


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or they could just give the money to their friend lol...

-Barron

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or they could just use one account. No reason it's more than one guy anyway.

You wanna play that game?
 

Another player. Same city. Same awful player. Up through 30k hands. Don't have the exact stats in front of me for win rate but I know his VIP 30 18 2.1! He is also up way more than he should be, but plays worse than the other guy in question.

Familiar? They don't seem to be in the same game that often though.

Re: DERB
 

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He can't win and thats a guarantee.

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You're ignorance is brutal.

Re: DERB
 

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He can't win and thats a guarantee.

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You're ignorance is brutal.

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How many hands do you have in the Party 30?

How many have you played against the player in question?

I suspect you're the ignorant one.

And there is no way in hell this player can be beating that game. He's either running extremely well, or there is something else at play.

Nevermind the 30/17, he just plain plays bad.

Re: DERB
 

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He can't win and thats a guarantee.

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You're ignorance is brutal.

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How many hands do you have in the Party 30?

How many have you played against the player in question?

I suspect you're the ignorant one.

And there is no way in hell this player can be beating that game. He's either running extremely well, or there is something else at play.

Nevermind the 30/17, he just plain plays bad.

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I agree he plays bad, but it is possible his bad play works against bad players and just sucks against strong players?

Re: DERB
 

If Party can use screen-scrapes, why can't a computer savy guy as well? That said, if the guy is capping ATo, that means someone 3-bet, and that someone likely has ATo in trouble.

Re: DERB
 

i've logged hands against the guy and think he plays good.

he certainly gets value out of me when i make a 2nd best.

Re: DERB
 

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i've logged hands against the guy and think he plays good.

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I've been watching this thread the last few days and while I haven't gone as high as the Party 30 game, there are certainly enough people out there to watch this guy and get a better feel for the game.

I am not of the belief that someone can't have those stats and be a winning player OR a good player - he would be certainly very non-traditional, but he could have developed a style that is suited well to his image / metagame.

The best idea is to get as much information as possible as it's certainly best to examine if he has got onto something rather than blindly dismiss him as a lucky so-and-so or anything.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

Re: DERB
 

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He can't win and thats a guarantee.

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You're ignorance is brutal.

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I agree 100%

There are many players who play loose and win in high limit games. This is just one of many. To think otherwise is pure arrogance.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com

Re: DERB
 

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Nevermind the 30/17, he just plain plays bad.

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You're missing the point. There's no place in understanding poker for "this CANNOT BE this". Maybe someone can have a 30 VPIP and be a winning player. Maybe they cannot. There is no way we can tell for sure at this incomplete stage of poker knowledge.

Absolutes are for idiots and the narrow minded.

Re: DERB
 

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There's no place in understanding poker for "this CANNOT BE this". Maybe someone can have a 30 VPIP and be a winning player. Maybe they cannot. There is no way we can tell for sure at this incomplete stage of poker knowledge.

Absolutes are for idiots and the narrow minded.

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I think you're absolutely correct.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

Re: DERB
 

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There's no place in understanding poker for "this CANNOT BE this". Maybe someone can have a 30 VPIP and be a winning player. Maybe they cannot. There is no way we can tell for sure at this incomplete stage of poker knowledge.

Absolutes are for idiots and the narrow minded.

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I think you're absolutely correct.


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At least you acknowledge that there is an upper limit of looseness where a great player can no longer win.

Re: DERB
 

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He can't win and thats a guarantee.

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You're ignorance is brutal.

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I agree 100%

There are many players who play loose and win in high limit games. This is just one of many. To think otherwise is pure arrogance.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com

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You guys are morons. J_V is saying this particular player can't win and that's a guarantee, not that someone with those stats can't win. Get off your high horses and come sit in the game and WATCH the guy before you go calling him ignorant. You guys are your cliche "think outside the box" arguments just sound incredibly foolish to people that have logged a significant number of hands with this guy. You are being results oriented. Go back and read an old thread by ZeeJustin where he outlines "sharks" with a similar strategy. Hint: these "significant winners" all went bust inside a month.

A guy as smart as ZeeJustin is fooled by their short term results so I can understand why people are in this instance as well, but if you haven't played a lot with this guy then don't render judgments on a guy like J_V whom I know has logged significant hours with him.
Jesus.
-James

Re: DERB
 

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He can't win and thats a guarantee.

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You're ignorance is brutal.

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Awesome.

Re: DERB
 

I've played a decnt amount in the 30 game, but I don't datamine, so I have nowhere near the stats that some of you have to search through. For the life of me, I can't figure out who this is, although I have a few possiblities.

I respect the fact that we don't throw around others screen names in the public forum...but if a PM is appropriate, I would appreciate it. I would like to see what I could learn from this player...I think it could really be educational.