Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

NO would be super bowl favorites by a large margin with manning

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

Probally more to do with the fact that they are in the NFC. Just look at how NO has faired against the AFC this year, it isn't pretty.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

To be fair, a lot of fluky things went wrong in thsoe games.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bears would be super bowl favorites by a large margin with manning

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Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

Such as?

They were down 35-7 to the Ravens at home.

Against the Steelers they did give up some rediculously long runs.

In the Cincy game, they were down 31-0, but it pwas probally due to a couple of luck things. Still they didn't fare too well against the AFC North at all.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
To be fair, a lot of fluky things went wrong in thsoe games.

[/ QUOTE ]
i saw them play the ravens live... they got RIZZZZOCKED

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

ya charliedontsurf use a stupid head yo

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bears would be undefeated with manning

[/ QUOTE ]

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Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It was broken TWICE in the last 3 years. Yet it won't happen in 15 years. Give me a break. It'll probally be broken again soon enough, maybe a couple of times. You act like this is the home run record or something that hasn't been broken or approached often. LT has had 31 tds, 20 tds and 18 the last 3. SA before this year had 28, 20, 16, 18 (total TDs), Holmes had 24 27 in 2 consecutive years.

Faulk had 26, 21 in 2 consecutive years. This record can be broken.

[/ QUOTE ]
Scoring doesn't really change much over the years, so there has to be a peak with these types of records. I think we've reached it.

[/ QUOTE ]


As with other arguments, you lack reason and logic to back up your claims.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Such as?

They were down 35-7 to the Ravens at home.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, they played like crap but there were a couple of tip drill pick sixes that game.

[ QUOTE ]
Against the Steelers they did give up some rediculously long runs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fumbled like 4 times and lost 3 of them, one of them deep to tie the game

[ QUOTE ]
In the Cincy game, they were down 31-0, but it pwas probally due to a couple of luck things.

[/ QUOTE ]

31-10, you mean? A pick six and a couple of red zone ints. I mean, I'm not saying it's all luck.

But they played the Steelers close and Bengals close until the 4th Q. Yeah, Ravens game sucked, I turned it off after a half, haha.

Still, I think it'd be wrong to look at that and just say that it's because they're in the NFC. They beat 3 playoff teams, and 2 of them were good at the time! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a Saints fan and I disagree. Not only was Peyton better in the numbers, the Colts O was better than the Saints O, and he's more responsible for that offense than anyone is to any offense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its Brees easy.

Peyton has been in the same offensive system for years with the same WR's, oline etc, coach, etc. Everything is the same cept for Edge and losing his TE mid season and #3 WR.

Bree's coming off shoulder surgery, on a new team, with all new teammates, 1 WR with any solid NFL game expierence, a team and town in total dissaray, a brand new 1st time head coach, a rookie RB, a RB coming off surgery from last year etc etc. Brees was more valuable to his team than Peyton was. But the MVP award isn't about that so it doesn't really matter.

The mainnegative is he plays in the NFC while Peyton is in the AFC.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think peyton could have done a better job than brees with that saints team?

[/ QUOTE ]

We assume something like this to be true but we have no way of knowing if it is the case. Peyton has played in a system with the same coach, wr, great line, etc for awhile now.

I have a hard time believing that Peyton is so awesome that he is the same QB on any team no matter what the personel, coaching, system etc. I would think the same of just about any QB in the league

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

So essentially you are arguing that because Peyton knows his offensive system better then Brees knows his, Brees is more valuable?

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

Peyton basically is what Bonds used to be, a guy that deserves MVP pretty much every year but the writers don't want to give it to the same guy every year.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

I don't understand the argument that Manning should be MVP just because most other NFL QB's are horrible. This is the not the most valuable player relative to people who suck.

I also don't understand the claims that replace LT with someone who sucks and they'd still be 14-2. They improved by 5 games this season and got worse at the QB position. Even with a solid backup like Turner they would have dropped minimum 2 games (too hard to determine the actual number IMO to bother with that).

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the argument that Manning should be MVP just because most other NFL QB's are horrible. This is the not the most valuable player relative to people who suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

so Manning isn't great, it's just that everyone else doesn't know how to play QB?

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the argument that Manning should be MVP just because most other NFL QB's are horrible. This is the not the most valuable player relative to people who suck.

I also don't understand the claims that replace LT with someone who sucks and they'd still be 14-2. They improved by 5 games this season and got worse at the QB position. Even with a solid backup like Turner they would have dropped minimum 2 games (too hard to determine the actual number IMO to bother with that).

[/ QUOTE ]
Manning is probably worth about 4 (I think this is fairly correct) wins a year over an average quarterback (think Brett Favre, or Eli Manning).

LT is probably worth about 2 to 3 wins a year (and I think I'm being generous) over an average running back (Ahman Green, for example). SD is still going to be a very good running team behind their awesome O-Line and Lorenzo Neal even with an average RB.

Do you disagree?

Peyton Manning is probably at least a full win better than any other QB in the league, I don't think any other player, at any other position comes close.

Edit: Replaced 5 or 6 with 4, I think that's a better estimate.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

I'm not going to read the entire thread -- read the first four pages -- but LMAO @ LT's MVP.

It really isn't close. WOW, HE HAD 31 TDS? Not nearly as important as you think. TDs are overrated.

"
Running back is probably the most overrated position in football, but that doesn't make it unimportant. Consider this, Peyton passed the ball 557 times this season and LDT touched the ball just over 400 times. If you were to assume Peyton was going to gain the same number of yards per attempt that LDT does per touch, Peyton would obviously be more important because LDT only gets 70% as many touches. Now if you add factor in the extra 2+ yards per touch Peyton gets, its just not close anymore."

That basically sums up everything. This is inarguable. Manning is loads better than any other player in the NFL. QB is the most important position by far in the NFL, and again, it's not close. They have the most touches, and therefore the most impact on the game. Just as importantly, QB is a MUCH harder position to replace than any other position in football. RBs are very fungible -- they are almost entirely dependent on their offensive line and blocking scheme. QBs are not. You can easily platoon RBs and end up with an above-average RB tandem. Not so with QBs.

People take Manning's greatness for granted. He should have four or five MVPs by now. He is the greatest player in the history of the NFL, and it's a shame he is not hyped as much.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

Cross posted from the Colts/Chiefs game, but I thought that this one stat emphasized the greatness of Peyton Manning more than any other that I have seen:

Bob Kravitz from Indy Star had this interesting stat today:

Since 1978 there have been 40 teams that have given up more than 2500 rushing yards in a single season. 39 have missed the playoffs. The exception: You 2006 Indianapolis Colts

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

People who say the MVP shouldn't just be the guy with the highest DVOA or DPAR. I agree. If two people are close Peyton is #1 by so much that it not much else should be considered.
Look at baseball MVP threads guys didn't say he should be MVP because his VORP or WARP are the highest by 3 runs. All of these stats have flaws in the sense they cannot perfectly capture a players value, but these stats do much better jobs than stats like TDs.
People who say obviously QB's are more valuable than RB's, but it's unfair to always give them the MVP. Either they are voting for an award which isn't MVP or they are borderline retarded.
CDS the Saints would be better with Peyton and some of the stuff you mentioned such as Brees coming off shoulder surgery are irrelevant when discussing MVP.
Also Noodleman hit it right on the head.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cross posted from the Colts/Chiefs game, but I thought that this one stat emphasized the greatness of Peyton Manning more than any other that I have seen:

Bob Kravitz from Indy Star had this interesting stat today:

Since 1978 there have been 40 teams that have given up more than 2500 rushing yards in a single season. 39 have missed the playoffs. The exception: You 2006 Indianapolis Colts

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that great a stat, since it doesn't factor in rushing attempts. The Jets were actually worse at defending the run than the Colts.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
People who say the MVP shouldn't just be the guy with the highest DVOA or DPAR. I agree. If two people are close Peyton is #1 by so much that it not much else should be considered.
Look at baseball MVP threads guys didn't say he should be MVP because his VORP or WARP are the highest by 3 runs. All of these stats have flaws in the sense they cannot perfectly capture a players value, but these stats do much better jobs than stats like TDs.
People who say obviously QB's are more valuable than RB's, but it's unfair to always give them the MVP. Either they are voting for an award which isn't MVP or they are borderline retarded.
CDS the Saints would be better with Peyton and some of the stuff you mentioned such as Brees coming off shoulder surgery are irrelevant when discussing MVP.
Also Noodleman hit it right on the head.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah the shoulder thing your right...but I simply don't buy the argument by most that Peyton is so good he performs fantastic no matter the team/system/personel.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]

but I simply don't buy the argument by most that Peyton is so good he performs fantastic no matter the team/system/personel.

[/ QUOTE ]

That imply one of two things: That Peyton Manning is not a Hall of Fame quarterback, or that Hall of Fame quarterbacks can not perform exceedingly well regardless of team / system / personnel.

I think both are extremely incorrect.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

but I simply don't buy the argument by most that Peyton is so good he performs fantastic no matter the team/system/personel.

[/ QUOTE ]

That imply one of two things: That Peyton Manning is not a Hall of Fame quarterback, or that Hall of Fame quarterbacks can not perform exceedingly well regardless of team / system / personnel.

I think both are extremely incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 1st isn;t true...2nd is.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

LT's the man. Manning and his brother are weak.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]


"
Running back is probably the most overrated position in football. Consider this, Peyton passed the ball 557 times this season and LDT touched the ball just over 400 times. If you were to assume Peyton was going to gain the same number of yards per attempt that LDT does per touch, Peyton would obviously be more important because LDT only gets 70% as many touches. Now if you add factor in the extra 2+ yards per touch Peyton gets, its just not close anymore."

That basically sums up everything. This is inarguable. Manning is loads better than any other player in the NFL. QB is the most important position by far in the NFL, and again, it's not close. They have the most touches, and therefore the most impact on the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

It may be "inarguable", but I want to throw some tidbits out there that I may not have been discussed yet. I'll play the devils advocate for LDT, since apparently everyone on this board thinks he's a horrible choice for MVP.
Yes, Peyton gets more yards per touch than LDT. He also has like up to 4 guys to throw to, and an option to run on every play. He literally has more ways to burn a D than an RB does.

Keep in mind that when Peyton gets X yards per touch (pass, since we know he never runs), some of that credit has to go to the receivers. Not half, but certainly some. Sure Peyton is accurate as hell, but you can't tell me he doesn't get occasional help from Marvin and the boys. Hell, Marvin made one of the best catches I've seen this year on a TD. Peyton can't get 100% of the credit for Yards-per-touch when things like this happen.

When an RB gets the ball, he basically IS the option, and there sure as hell aren't 4 or 5 holes that his O-line made for him to hit on each touch. Usually one, if he's lucky. Peyton has several options on each touch.

You also have to account for what LDT does downfield that other RB's can't do, like lay out some damaging stiff-arms to pick up an extra 15 yards here and there. Once LDT hits a hole, it's ain't over. He does some amazing things downfield that other RB's usually can't. (This argument has little to do with Peyton, as basically I'm comparing LDT to his peers).

Also you guys are forgetting that LDT had a couple TD passes this year, so I think he accounted for 33 TD's all-told.

Also factor in LDT's occassional blocking when an OLB is rushing the passer. Not that other RB's don't do that. But you have to add that to his value above Y/T. Just because he doesn't get the ball every snap doesn't mean he isn't blocking, or maybe even open somewhere but not getting the ball.


Also factor in that a QB's numbers go up bigtime when they are trailing late. Because they basically never run the ball, and the D is playing soft to not give up huge gains late. Peyton lost 4 games this year, so I haven't looked at the numbers, but I'm pretty sure he benefitted from getting several attempts to come back late through the air.
Hell, you can routinely see QB's add another 50+ yards late in the game when they are down. Those yards are pretty much meaningless if they still lose the game, and should probably not even count, but meh.

Also take into account that LDT has presumably never called his kicker a "drunken idiot" like Peyton did. His players all seem to love him. He's pretty valuable to those guys. Just look at how they celebrated his efforts when he got the record this year. I think LDT is a pretty damn valuable guy to have on your team.

Honestly, with all this said, I really could care less if Peyton won it. It would in no way have been a shocker. I'm just trying to make arguments for LDT since all the math nerds are pissed off tonight about Peyton getting snuffed.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]

He also has like up to 4 guys to throw to, and an option to run on every play. He literally has more ways to burn a D than an RB does.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why bother this route of argument? Who's more dependant on his teammates: LT or Peyton? With a below-average offensive line, he'll average 3.6 ypc, like his rookie year. Peyton Manning made BRANDON STOKLEY a somebody.

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind that when Peyton gets X yards per touch (pass, since we know he never runs), some of that credit has to go to the receivers. Not half, but certainly some.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some, yes, but their jobs are made much easier by the fact that they only have to get open a LITTLE, and have the ultimate confidence in knowing that if they run their routes right and are open, they will get the ball. Peyton does not play favorites for the sake of playing favorites, and as a result the jobs of WRs are a lot easier.

[ QUOTE ]
Sure Peyton is accurate as hell, but you can't tell me he doesn't get occasional help from Marvin and the boys.

[/ QUOTE ]

He also gets makes people like Ben Utecht contributors.

[ QUOTE ]
When an RB gets the ball, he basically IS the option, and there sure as hell aren't 4 or 5 holes that his O-line made for him to hit on each touch.

[/ QUOTE ]

For the RB to make stuff happen, blocks have to open it for him. Peyton needs less daylight to hit his WRs than LT needs to burst through blocks. I would also say LT's blocking > Peyton's receiving. I would also say the fact that LT has Gates lets him face less men in the box. At times, everyone knows Peyton is going to throw, and they can't stop him anyway. You can't blitz him, you can't sack him, you can't sit back in your zone coverage. The best way to stop him is a 3-4 with a lot of great LBs to bring pressure. If you really, really wanted to, you could stop LT. Remember, LT wasn't even having a great season until teams started respecting Rivers.

[ QUOTE ]
You also have to account for what LDT does downfield that other RB's can't do, like lay out some damaging stiff-arms to pick up an extra 15 yards here and there.

[/ QUOTE ]

DPAR counts it.

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Once LDT hits a hole, it's ain't over. He does some amazing things downfield that other RB's usually can't. (This argument has little to do with Peyton, as basically I'm comparing LDT to his peers).

[/ QUOTE ]

Peyton is much farther ahead of his peers YEAR AFTER YEAR than LT is. Hell, the Chargers don't MISS A BEAT when Michael Turner comes in.

[ QUOTE ]
Also you guys are forgetting that LDT had a couple TD passes this year, so I think he accounted for 33 TD's all-told.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great. It's too bad TDs aren't that important. Manning had 35 TDs, if you really want to compare. What, your excuse is that Manning gets more of an opportunity to throw the ball, and, in general, gets more of an opportunity to accumulate value? Well yeah, that's the point -- that's the inherent value a QB has over a RB.

[ QUOTE ]
Also factor in that a QB's numbers go up bigtime when they are trailing late. Because they basically never run the ball, and the D is playing soft to not give up huge gains late.

[/ QUOTE ]

They have to be trailing by a lot for garbage stats to come into play, and by that same logic, more desperate throwing attempts to come back = more turnovers. Even assuming Manning had a lot of opportunities to pile up garbage stats -- he hasn't -- it's a testament to how great a QB is that he still keeps his TOs low. He fumbled twice all year! That is mind-boggling for a QB.

[ QUOTE ]
Peyton lost 4 games this year, so I haven't looked at the numbers, but I'm pretty sure he benefitted from getting several attempts to come back late through the air.
Hell, you can routinely see QB's add another 50+ yards late in the game when they are down. Those yards are pretty much meaningless if they still lose the game, and should probably not even count, but meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

See above. Lmao @ it being meaningless. If the defense knows you are going to pass, and still can't stop it, but end up winning anyway, it's meaningless? Wtf? And do you REALLY think ANY defense is saying, "Yeah, let's play super soft and let Manning pick us apart so they can come back and beat us!" Um, no. The Colts are the most explosive offense in the NFL, and if you play worse as a defense just because they are behind, that is beyond stupid.

[ QUOTE ]
Also take into account that LDT has presumably never called his kicker a "drunken idiot" like Peyton did. His players all seem to love him. He's pretty valuable to those guys. Just look at how they celebrated his efforts when he got the record this year. I think LDT is a pretty damn valuable guy to have on your team.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaningless coachspeak [censored]. Winning breeds chemistry. Nothing more, nothing less. Of course, I could throw out the whole "Peyton calls his own plays!" "Peyton is a head coach / offensive coordinator!" Whoops, looks like I did anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, with all this said, I really could care less if Peyton won it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The phrase is "couldn't care less." Sorry, that bugs me.

[ QUOTE ]
It would in no way have been a shocker. I'm just trying to make arguments for LDT since all the math nerds are pissed off tonight about Peyton getting snuffed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you implying that you don't even believe that LT is really the MVP?

I'm far from a math nerd. In fact, math is my worst subject. I abhor it.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

tell peyton he can have the MVP if he fights LDT for it

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

Vyse,

Logic has no place in this forum. Now shoo.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just trying to make arguments for LDT since all the math nerds are pissed off tonight about Peyton getting snuffed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find it amazing that the N-word gets used so often in these discussions. In my adult life I have never seen someone called a nerd in a serious way unless that person was advocating the use of better sports statistics.

Why is that? I'm really curious.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

Nerd can be swapped with stathead etc.
its not really derogatory.

once you realize that the MVP has nothing to do with who is the most valuable player just like the oscar's best picture has nothing to do with who made the best film...you'll realize its pointless to argue peyton should be the MVP instead of LDT.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nerd can be swapped with stathead etc.
its not really derogatory.

once you realize that the MVP has nothing to do with who is the most valuable player just like the oscar's best picture has nothing to do with who made the best film...you'll realize its pointless to argue peyton should be the MVP instead of LDT.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, what you're saying is that there's no point in argueing the most deserving player/film doesn't always win. It's not that we're missing the point of the award.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't think peyton could have done a better job than brees with that saints team?

[/ QUOTE ]

We assume something like this to be true but we have no way of knowing if it is the case. Peyton has played in a system with the same coach, wr, great line, etc for awhile now.

I have a hard time believing that Peyton is so awesome that he is the same QB on any team no matter what the personel, coaching, system etc. I would think the same of just about any QB in the league

[/ QUOTE ]
ya same situation... if peyton signed with the saints as a free agent instead of the saints...... Peyton would be better

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

so peyton would be the best qb in the league no matter what team he played on.
so your saying peyton manning is the greatest football player of all time.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
so peyton would be the best qb in the league no matter what team he played on.
so your saying peyton manning is the greatest football player of all time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and yes.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

You bring up some good points, in a tasteful way. Thanks.

I do have a question though, why does everyone say touchdowns are overrated? I really don't understand that. If touchdowns are overrated, than are kickers the most underrated players of all time?

Also, once inside the 10 yard line or so, the difficulty of throwing a TD pass goes up, because the field is is now only 60 feet long. In this instance, an RB's relative value goes up, as the difficulty of an RB to pick up a typical 4 yards per touch doesn't change much when the field is shortened this drastically.

If you can prove to me why touchdowns are overrated, then I suppose this point is negated.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

It's not so much that touchdowns are overrated so much that the other plays leading up to it get no love.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/9...vardellos6.jpg

Tommy Vardell says touchdowns are not overrated.

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

Moe Williams and Mike Alstott ftw!

Re: LT AP\'s MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I do have a question though, why does everyone say touchdowns are overrated? I really don't understand that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Touchdowns aren't overrated as a team accomplishment. They're vastly overrated as an individual feat, however. Most TDs are the result of the offense working its way down the field and into scoring position. Focusing on the last play of the drive tends to obscure the ultimate cause of the score.

For example, say the Chargers offense takes the opening kickoff for a touchback. They march 79 yards down the field with balanced mix of Tomlinson runs and short-intermediate passes. On 1st & Goal from the 1, Philip Rivers sneaks into the end zone for a TD. Was Tomlinson's contribution to the score significantly different than if he'd carried the ball that last yard? No. At that point the EV of the drive was probably around 6.5 points, and the difference in effectiveness between LDT and some other runner is miniscule at that point, so there just isn't much more vaule to be gained.

Or take another hypothetical: On the first play of the game, San Diego's opponent is on offense and throws an interception, which is returned all the way to the 1. On the next play, Tomlinson plows into the end zone. How much has he actually helped his team? They would score a TD the overwhelming majority of the time in that spot with or without LDT. Now say, for argument's sake, that with 1st & Goal on the 1 the Chargers would score a TD about 90% of the time. Let's also be really generous and say that without Tomlinson, that number drops all the way to 85%. That would mean that Tomlinson's actual contribution on the goalline was about 1/3 of a point.


That's all a long-winded way of saying that TDs are a poor measure of any RB or WR because they are so heavily dependent on opportunities provided by the rest of the team. What if, prior to Week 1, the Chargers had traded Tomlinson to the Raiders and had to use Michael Turner as a full-time RB. Who would have more TDs in 2006, Turner or Tomlinson? In fact, I would be surprised if Turner didn't wind up with twice as many TDs. That wouldn't mean, though, that Tomlinson was any less of a RB than he is now, nor would it mean that Michael Turner was one of the best backs in the league.

LDT isn't a great RB because he crosses the goalline so frequently. He's a great RB because he helps his team get down around the goalline so much. What's needed is a statistic that measures the approximate expected value in points of all of a RB's touches, then adds them up and compares how many points a given player contributed to his team above what a typical backup player would be expected to accomplish.

Oh, right: DPAR.