Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

psh just ignore it...

we're all just cranky from 300 posts about this one hand [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Side question to Lloyd: did the experts already have a separate private discussion thread that's about to be revealed? Or are they going to start posting responses in new discussion thread? Just wondering.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]
They were given each decision point via PM, responded to me via PM, and did not discuss the hand with each other prior to doing so. I asked for thought process and will be including what they sent to me. I wanted to hold off debate and discussion between them until the end and in the forum post.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Man people are going to get bored if it takes this long to post the "experts" opinions after the original threads. Either that or I'm really bad at finding that thread.

[/ QUOTE ]
And my last comment on this. I have been working on the last thread for over 20 minutes so far and still am not finished. This is a little more extensive than just throwing up some answers. Patience is rewarded. Impatience severely penalized. And believe it or not I don't have the time to do this 24 hours a day so things get done when it's convenient for me.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I changed my mind on the river. I guess you really have to push the river. I don't like the line on the turn, but I guess if you're going to take that line and villain shows any weakness at all you're stuck with a river bluff. Hope villain had K9c, 89c, 87c, or QJ and felt priced into calling the turn and now will fold.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Man people are going to get bored if it takes this long to post the "experts" opinions after the original threads. Either that or I'm really bad at finding that thread.

[/ QUOTE ]
And my last comment on this. I have been working on the last thread for over 20 minutes so far and still am not finished. This is a little more extensive than just throwing up some answers. Patience is rewarded. Impatience severely penalized. And believe it or not I don't have the time to do this 24 hours a day so things get done when it's convenient for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I for once appreciate the effort on this hand series and mod'ing in general. Standard brews on me in vegas/10k buyin tourney line inserted here

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Man people are going to get bored if it takes this long to post the "experts" opinions after the original threads. Either that or I'm really bad at finding that thread.

[/ QUOTE ]
And my last comment on this. I have been working on the last thread for over 20 minutes so far and still am not finished. This is a little more extensive than just throwing up some answers. Patience is rewarded. Impatience severely penalized. And believe it or not I don't have the time to do this 24 hours a day so things get done when it's convenient for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry Lloyd, I didn't mean my comments to infer that I had a problem. I'm just eager and don't mean to come off as an a-hole if I did.
We all appreciate the work you and Durron are doing and this forum's much improved for it.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Yeah Lloyd, you're still the man, but we're jonesin' here!!

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm happy to see that the original Hero took the same line I would have preflop and on the Flop AND on the Turn...anyways lol

My original range for CO was [JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A3o,KTo+,QJo,JTo]

After checking the F and betting the T his range was narrowed to [TT-99, 33, A3s, A9s, ATs, AQs, AJs, AKs, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A3o, A9o, ATo, AQo, AJo, AKo, KTo+, QJo, JTo]. After calling the Turn reraise that range has been narrowed to [TT, 99, KJo/s, T9s, 33]. I'm going mostly on the read that CO is Tight and usually Tight players don't call 2:1 odds with just one pair and a OESD out of position. Now the hands that could fold to a Push include T9s and 33, and the other random hands below that strength that CO could have gone this far with. That comes out to a Fold 33% of the time. 66% of the time you're going to lose if you Push.

At least the raise on the Turn knocked MJ out of the hand so we don't have to worry about him anymore...

Now the pot is 10k, and I have 7k with the Villain covering me. If the CO:
Calls: -7000 (66%)= -4620
Folds: +10,000 (33%)= +3333

Conclusion: (Bill Walton voice) "Check it down, big man, check it down."

BTW it's perfectly reasonable for CO to have checked the nuts or the near nuts on the River. Some players are weak-tight and others (Doug Lee on TV comes to mind) check the River after being raised on the Turn with the nuts in hopes of a check-raise. Not a good play, but it happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 more things:

1) It would have been great to get the 2+2 members who are generally respected as at least competent professionals (Fossilman, Jen Harman, Greenstein, etc) to put in their "expert" analysis

2) The utility of saving 10BB by bluffing 5k instead of All-in into a pot of 10k against a Tight player should outweigh the lower FE.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
2) The utility of saving 10BB by bluffing 5k instead of All-in into a pot of 10k against a Tight player should outweigh the lower FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way, you need all the FE you can get here, and your 10BB stack is going to be tiny as hell in this tournament, you're in push fold mode this early? that's like have 200 in a pokerstars tournaemnt in the 10/20 Blind level while everyone else is at 1500...

Not a cool situation.. i'll take the extra FE thank youver much.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
We all appreciate the work you and Durron are doing and this forum's much improved for it.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYI, Durron is a mod for another forum and not this one. Thanks.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We all appreciate the work you and Durron are doing and this forum's much improved for it.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYI, Durron is a mod for another forum and not this one. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2) The utility of saving 10BB by bluffing 5k instead of All-in into a pot of 10k against a Tight player should outweigh the lower FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way, you need all the FE you can get here, and your 10BB stack is going to be tiny as hell in this tournament, you're in push fold mode this early? that's like have 200 in a pokerstars tournaemnt in the 10/20 Blind level while everyone else is at 1500...

Not a cool situation.. i'll take the extra FE thank youver much.

[/ QUOTE ]

except that it's debateable which bet actually has more FE. I think that it's different for different players. You might have more FE w/ a 5k bet vs. some players plus the fact that if they call you, you have 10x left.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We all appreciate the work you and Durron are doing and this forum's much improved for it.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYI, Durron is a mod for another forum and not this one. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'm a little drunk and a big jerk obviously. That's the other forum I read most and am not thinking clearly. Jeez, what can I do to get on your good side? You make it sound like I called a girl by a different name during sexicourse.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

You're doing a great job Lloyd of promoting deeper level discussions in the forum; keep up the good work.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I check the river here because i don't believ i have enough FE to get him to fold to a push here with his stack size with the possibilty he may have a big hand here. I think a push only gets 2nd pair to fold. I check looking to fight another battle.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Say your initial range for opponent inclues 50 hands. You eventually narrow the range down to 5 hands. Let's further accept as true Harrington's postulate that any opponent bluffs at least 10% of the time. For the tight opponent in this problem, we'll say it's exactly 10%.

So now you have 6 possible explanations. Your 5-hand range, and a bluff. From your initial range of 50 hands, the 5 hands each has a probability of .02. The odds of a total bluff now are: .1/((.02 * 5) + .1) = 50%!

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

This is absolutely fantastic.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Possible hands, AA, KK, QQ, TT, 99, 33, AK, AJ, KJ.

I check as I see no value in betting, you are surely beat.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Say your initial range for opponent inclues 50 hands. You eventually narrow the range down to 5 hands. Let's further accept as true Harrington's postulate that any opponent bluffs at least 10% of the time. For the tight opponent in this problem, we'll say it's exactly 10%.

So now you have 6 possible explanations. Your 5-hand range, and a bluff. From your initial range of 50 hands, the 5 hands each has a probability of .02. The odds of a total bluff now are: .1/((.02 * 5) + .1) = 50%!

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

This is absolutely fantastic.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wish this part of the thread would have received a little more love. I realize that it might not be that useful to talk about since it's abstract and not something that would come across in a hand post since it can only be applied with a great read...(*inhale*) but I think it's interesting and has some merit.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

NOTE: Making the assumption this tight CO player has atleast a decent understanding of cards since there is nothing said to the contrary.

First, I highly doubt a tight player makes a pot sized bet on the turn with something as low as a draw, let alone calls a decent sized reraise with his draw.

Second, I don't think he holds kj,qq,1010,99 because even a tight player would probably push these hands facing your reraise. There's just too many draws, the pot is getting large.

I think it's very possible for CO to hold 33, hoping to see a showdown and a blank on the river or a 9 or 10.

A few other possibilities might be 910s,q10s.

Unlikely but possible holdings might be JQ, KQ.

I think you get an unhappy call from the set and probably the two pair, and you likely get away with a push when he is holding jq or kq.

I check the river, it's early and I have plenty of chips left. I don't need to make this very questionable gamble.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Uh boy... this is why I carry Tylenol.

Someone else said that this is a lot harder when the earlier moves were not what you yourself would have done and they were right... I love the PF raise but would have probed the flop bet for 500 and called the turn to get the SB's money too with little risk to myself. But we're here and it's time to deal with this...

The CO almost has to have 2 pair. QT, maybe Q9. I think T9 would have fired a bullet on the flop because you just can't slow play 2 pair for fear of being run down too often, so I still disregard T9 as a possibility.

What's more interesting is what the CO would put us on...

1) We raised 3X the BB pre-flop.
2) We checked the flop.
3) We jacked him up pretty hard on the turn.

What could someone raise PF with? Premium hands and pairs.

Now, what would he need on the flop in order to let an opponent have a free card on the turn and then ambush him on the river?

A flopped set, most likely 99 and up.

Considering this board, there is only one hand that meets the requirements of the PF raise and the post flop play... and that's TT.

Hero has one shot, and that's a push. It would serve to convince the CO that we have TT but even that's no guarantee that we won't be called down because we don't have enough chips to take away the odds for the SB to pay us off if he has 2 pair, which is nearly certain.

If we fold, we have 6,900 to survive with. That's do-able, so this is NOT an automatic shove. The real question is, how convinced is the SB that we flopped the set and ambushed him on the turn?

Without seeing him face to face, it's impossible to know. He is, however, considered to be a tight player... and most likely a "good" player. Good players are bluffable players... and the bets leading up to this tell a story. The story that the SB reads is that we have trips. So, if we push, that's going to be perfectly consistent with what he's read so far.

"A good bluff tells a story that the victim believes and understands." (Quoted from Matt Lessinger's book... or maybe mis-quoted!).

For me, it comes down to this. Can we out-play the table well enough to make a go if it with only 6900? Our M isn't critical yet, so we need to look at the rest of the table.

- If we think we can prosper by playing small-ball with only the 6900, then check it and muck without showing when he shows that we're beat.

- If the table is tough, we'll get picked apart if we only have 6900... so it's better to take the shot and maybe, just maybe, the SB will believe what our bets have been telling him all along. In this case, burn some incense, say some prayers and shove the chips.

Vorlin

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

CORRECTION: I just noticed all the places in the above post where I put SB and should have said CO. It's 5 AM, the edit button is no longer available and I apologize. Please read the above "SB"s to be "CO"s.

Vorlin