Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
 

Other than the horrible Pats line, one potential problem is that whoever beats them may appear amazing.

If, for example, the Colts beat the Pats 35-28 and they don't play the Cowboys or Packers. The 15.5 may not move much.
If the Colts somehow beat the Pats 35-21, even if they played the Cowboys or Packers, the line may still be double figures.

I'm not claiming they would be at the moment, but the likelihood is that if they beat the Pats, people will assume they are playing really well and the line could still go stupid.

Lori

Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
 

Indy v healthy Cowboys or GB will not be anywhere near 15 or more. 10, sure. 11, okay.
> 14? No.

Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
 

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Indy v healthy Cowboys or GB will not be anywhere near 15 or more. 10, sure. 11, okay.
> 14? No.

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Agree entirely, but if you've already lost a patriots bet to pay for those 4-5 points, is it really worth it?

Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
 

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You're looking at something similar but it isn't really the same idea. You need to weight a NE SB chance with the line you'll expect to see along with other probabilities and lines.

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Right. That's along the lines of what I was thinking. Obviously I'm out in left field on this one though.

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Mostly since that NE line is horrid.

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Yeah, but the question wasn't about the exact line, it was about the concept. Apparently that wasn't obvious.

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is the concept to combine multiple -EV bets into a +EV proposition? because that doesn't work.

Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
 

Daliman,

Your post about the injury is entirely pointless and whatever you were alluding to is clearly lost on just about everyone.

The idea of hedging MLs with off spreads is a fine one. If one is accurate and the other errant. Judging by the prices -200 is abs horrid. Someone else will have to figure out if a diff price would be better.