Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the 30-35k hands is including my downswing (was only 4-5BI but some bad plays).

[/ QUOTE ]
Ah, ok. That makes it more more plausible that you are a winning NL $100 player.

[ QUOTE ]

my current downswing is way beyond any recognizable std dev (-19PTBB/100 over 7k hands), I think there is no argument that a lot of this downswing is probably from bad runs.


[/ QUOTE ]
That is much lower than a plausible losing rate. However, it's much more likely that you can find some period (starting with hand 1) in which you are 3 standard deviations below average than that you will do in a fixed period. So, it's not clear that this is an outrageously bad streak as opposed to just uncommonly bad.

However, there is a potential benefit. In case you are a losing player, losing rapidly saved you a lot of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha I don't know if I wanted to save time [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
I do believe I was a winning NL100 player, maybe 6PTBB/100 was above my actual winrate but I believe I was still a winning player.
I have definitely ran bad in the last 7k hands but it can't be all that, and I know it isnt all that, but even if I was playing pretty bad, with my understanding of the game and perticipation on this forum over the last 2 years, etc. Being a -19PTBB/100 at NL25 is clearly some sort of bad run, weather this type of run will eventually happen to everyone, I am not firmiiar with stats enough to figure that out. (Although I am taking a stats class this semester with a horrid instructor so its hard to apply it to real life because she sucks at explaining anything, but I have a 100% average in the class !! ;D )

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
So did you fix your leaks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats the best part, besides my Matusow blowups where i'd push with TP3rdkicker or make some absurd hero call or get super annoyed im not hitting and call an allin from a 60/5 on a 567triple suit with AA, I was actually playing much better then I think I was at NL100. I was value betting thinner, getting away from trouble hands, playhing in position way more, 3betting lighter, squeezing more, not calling 3 bets as much with bad hands, especially OOP. Overall I really think I expanded my game but I got [censored] owned. I could just be playing a totally wrong style for NL25 but to be honest I was playing pretty ABC.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Time to update your Location?

[ QUOTE ]

Loc: 5buyin swings.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Maybe it's just me picking my spots poorly (or sucking), but thin value bets and light 3bets are something I've gotten badly pwnt doing at NL25. I've had much better results at NL25 by playing more weak-tight without firm reads on opponents being very tight. Fold equity is so goddamn low it's amazing, and fish play so passively with monster hands I never really know where the hell I stand.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

I don't think much of my losses have resulted from light 3bets, but stakes like NL25 would probably be a good place to value bet thin IMO because you will be looked up light.

aka bluffing a lot at NL25 is suicide.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Time to update your Location?

[ QUOTE ]

Loc: 5buyin swings.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Done [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]