Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I personally feel that DET is extremely overrated - I would take GB + the points. However... a note of disclaimer - Favre has historically had a tough time in the DET dome...

[/ QUOTE ]

First part = true
2nd part = common misconception - this has changed over the past 5 years since Ford Field opened -as has Favre's dome record overall. here are the last 5 games for GB AT Det.
02 W37-31
03 L14-22
04 W38-10
05 L03-17
06 W31-24

Favre 3-2 with 3 games over 30 points of offense does not equate to a 'tough time in the Detroit dome.

GL

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I personally feel that DET is extremely overrated - I would take GB + the points. However... a note of disclaimer - Favre has historically had a tough time in the DET dome...

[/ QUOTE ]

First part = true
2nd part = common misconception - this has changed over the past 5 years since Ford Field opened -as has Favre's dome record overall. here are the last 5 games for GB AT Det.
02 W37-31
03 L14-22
04 W38-10
05 L03-17
06 W31-24

Favre 3-2 with 3 games over 30 points of offense does not equate to a 'tough time in the Detroit dome.

GL

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for clarifying - I guess I was working off of old information.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Favre was HORRIBLE in domes for years. He has turned it around, but the announcers on tv haven't caught up with the record.

If you hear something said often enough, it's only natural to believe it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Borrowed from a poster at RX.

Favre Career Since 2002 in All Domes
SU 9-7 ATS 7-8-1

Before That
SU 8-22 ATS 10-20

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Favre is like the anti-Wakefield.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you hear something said often enough, it's only natural to believe it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

contrariwise, if you believe something strongly enough, it's only natural to repeat it often.

-c

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

My plays:

Record: 16-11-3 +6.84u
ATS: 10-5-3 +7.56u
Totals: 6-6-0 -0.72u

Colts -12.5 (-110)
Risk 2u to win 1.82u

This looks like such a donkey pick from all angles, and yet I don't care too much. DVOA has Indy as about a TD favorite in Atlanta here, and yet I'm taking Indy -12.5. Why? Atlanta has no redeeming qualities. They can't run, they can't pass, they can't stop the run, they can't stop the pass. DeAngelo Hall may be able to keep Reggie Wayne more in check than most, but with Clark getting another week to recover and the rest of Indy's WRs hopefully getting on the same page as Manning, I expect Indy to finally get their offense rolling and win big.

Colts/Falcons U42
Risk 2u to win 1.82u

This line isn't nearly as juicy as the Chiefs line last week, but I still don't think we can expect Atlanta to score very much. 7-10 is a good estimate, and while I expect Indy to turn things around, I think it's a bit too early to think they'll start hanging 35 on a team with this squad. I think we're looking at a 28-7 game here. I'd say 31, but the Colts don't have a kicker. I realize that I'm taking a spread of -12.5 and an under of 42 here, which is counterintuitive, but call it a reverse correlated parlay. I lose both of these bets very infrequently, as the Falcons are going to struggle to score 14 against a highly underrated Colts defense.

Dallas/NYJ O47
Risk 1u to win .91

The second best offense against the worst defense. I mean, we can expect to see 30+ from Dallas more often than not. The Jets O isn't as bad as people would like to think, and I expect to see them put up almost 20 points.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

For everyone betting on the Indy game, something to keep in mind:

The receiver-thin Colts have placed Aaron Moorehead, their ostensible short-term Marvin Harrison replacement (which is tough to do when you have a -4.6 DPAR and a 36 percent Catch Rate), on injured reserve with a back injury he suffered in Indianapolis’ 13-10 win over the Chiefs last Sunday. The Colts hope to have rookie receiver Anthony Gonzalez, who himself has missed three straight games with an injured thumb, back for the Thankgiving game against the Falcons. If not, it’s pretty much Reggie Wayne, Craphonso Thorpe, and Devin Aromashodu. Marvin Harrison, he of the knee injury, was listed on the official Tuesday NFL injury report as having limited participation in practice, but there’s no firm timeline, according to this Indystar.com report .If they can get past Atlanta, there’s a while to recover before a December 2 visit from the Jaguars.

---------

Epic receiving corps, amirite?

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

rust,

Epic with a capital E.

But really, Gonzalez SHOULD be back, and if he's not, Wayne, Thorpe and Clark should be a potent enough receiving squad against Atlanta. Thorpe's had a week or two to get accustomed to the offense.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

I'm really liking the under for the Indy game now.