Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
 

looks good. being a little deeper is your ally in spots like this.

Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
 

dont like the flop call ... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
and the ace fits perfect intos SB raise range.
and the ace seems to not scare SB, he fires the second barrel...
and you have no outs if he calls for the river ...
but maybe you have some fold equity, depending on your opponent, hard to say on the green table...

Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
 

How about viewing this as an algebra problem. Let x be the % of time you have trips or a boat in this spot, and let y be the % of time you fire a second bullet as a bluff on the river.

If he decides to call you down all the way, his EV is:
x(-550) + y(675) + (1-x-y)(275)

If he decides to call on the turn and fold to a bet on the river, his EV is:
(x+y)(-150) + (1-x-y)(275)

You need to find an x and y such that both of these come out negative. I whipped those formulas up really quickly and the details may be off, but you get the idea.

I guess you have to account for the possibility of him using a mixed strategy too, but this is too much math for me right now.

Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
 

id make a smaller raise because this only works when villain doesnt have an ace which is most of the time

Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
 

lets assume SB raises with Ax, Kx, 22+:
he has around 40% of the time an ace there or a 9
lets also assume he calls the turn in this case 80% of the time. we give it up on the river if he calls.
he folds 68% of the time we have 131*0,68 = 89
he calls 0,4*0,8 = 32 % of the time we lose (131+190)*0,32=-103, giving a total of -14.