Re: Nl600: AQs
 

if you insist on doing this just shove the flop

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

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Wtf at this being terrible. Villain has a hand here like close to never and I dont want to let him suckout. Raising here is totally standard although we dont necessarily have to puah.

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Why do you think you're folding out pairs vs this 40/20?

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

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if you insist on doing this just shove the flop

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agreed. This isn't a flop where you wanna price him in. open shove seems fine imo.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

I just saw I misread the hand. I thought we had position and he donks into us. This changes things as we are behind a lot more whwn he bets like this. Checking to induce a bluff looks good. Now that he bet so small a call is probably in order although we`ll get into tough spots a lot so yea - i still like a raise.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

MH,

What about sets and 44/66 in villan's range? That would swing it so he has to fold some of the time for +0EV. Im saying this is close to breakeven play, but good for meta game!

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

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Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results.

Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411
Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8)
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6

Equity when called*:
*The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot.

Board: 2c 5d 3h
Dead:

Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s }

Let X = probability villain folds.

EV of Shove is neutral when:
0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8)
X = -5%.

So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers:
X = 0%, EV = 17.91
X = 10%, EV = 57.22
X = 20%, EV = 96.53

So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero!

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This is some wishful thinking. There are some hands that you left out that may call. IMO, this guy is never folding here with his stack. Let's see the numbers

<font color="blue">Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
83,160 evaluations, 84 hole card combos

Board: 2c 5d 3h

Wins Ties Equity
24.17% 2.83% 27.01% ( AdQd )
70.16% 2.83% 72.99% ( AA-22,A4,A5 ) </font>

0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.25 - 328.8) <font color="red">X = 16%</font>.

If I remove A4 and A5,

<font color="blue">Wins Ties Equity
29.18% 1.46% 30.64% ( AdQd )
67.91% 1.46% 69.36% ( AA-22 ) </font>

0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.3 - 328.8) <font color="red">X = 7%</font>.

So, if the guy is never folding (which is mostly true considering he is committed), this is clearly -EV. If you really wanted to do this, like some one said, better push the flop simply.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

i can never see folding here with this stack sizes and i dont see why he can never fold after leading that weak. he wont do it often though. other option would be to call after his bet was so small, i dont see how this can be good though.