Re: PokerFink\'s NFC Rankings (Week 7)
 

I think the Giants are a real team to watch now. That defensive line is unstoppable. In the playoffs that line could make any QB have an awful game, so I could see them doing something.

Unfortunately Eli is their QB.

Re: PokerFink\'s NFC Rankings (Week 7)
 

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

MEAN WINS

CAR: 8.3
DET: 8.0
ARI: 7.8
Minny: 7.3
Philly: 7.1
Chicago: 6.7
NO: 6.5

MY RECORD PREDICTIONS

CAR: 8-8
ARI: 8-8
DET: 7-9
CHI: 7-9
PHI: 6-10
MIN: 6-10
NO: 6-10

I mean, seriously, wtf, it is predictive and they're right where they should be.

[/ QUOTE ]
man honestly put away the stats for two seconds. 6 games is not a great sample to predict anything. if you took just their last two games those stats would paint a drastically different picture. minus stats, from what you have seen of Carolina and NO, and what you know of their remaining schedules, do you really think the Saints won't at least tie them? [censored] there is probably a better than 50/50 chance that they will be tied in 3 weeks, cause NO has to play SF, JAX, STL, while Carolina has to play Indy, Tenn and ATL

Re: PokerFink\'s NFC Rankings (Week 7)
 

So Philly is discounted not because you don't think they are better than Det,Chi,Ari,Car, but because they'll likely finish worse? Basically, your power rankings at this point of the season list teams in order of W/L? Despite Chicago's win last week, I'd still rather face any of those teams ranked 7-10 than Philly.

Re: PokerFink\'s NFC Rankings (Week 7)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, your power rankings at this point of the season list teams in order of W/L?

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the point I was trying to make.

Re: PokerFink\'s NFC Rankings (Week 7)
 

Sem,

I look at NO and Car's schedules and see about 4 wins for each of them. As for the next three weeks, I see NO as 2-1, and Car as 1-2. Do you think Car is going to lose a home game vs. Atl? This weekend's game in SF doesn't have to go well for the Saints either. Then they play Jax at home which should be a loss. I can't see them being tied in 3 weeks. The 50/50 I see is whether the two teams maintain their current gap or NO gains a game.

Re: PokerFink\'s NFC Rankings (Week 7)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the Giants are a real team to watch now. That defensive line is unstoppable. In the playoffs that line could make any QB have an awful game, so I could see them doing something.

Unfortunately Eli is their QB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eli has played much much better this season. He still turns the ball over too much obviously, but a bunch of those have been off dropped/deflected balls.

Regardless, he is the 3rd or 4th best QB in the NFC this season, I know that isn't saying a ton, but he has def. improved if you have watched all the games.

Re: PokerFink\'s NFC Rankings (Week 7)
 

[ QUOTE ]
man honestly put away the stats for two seconds. 6 games is not a great sample to predict anything. if you took just their last two games those stats would paint a drastically different picture. minus stats, from what you have seen of Carolina and NO, and what you know of their remaining schedules, do you really think the Saints won't at least tie them? [censored] there is probably a better than 50/50 chance that they will be tied in 3 weeks, cause NO has to play SF, JAX, STL, while Carolina has to play Indy, Tenn and ATL

[/ QUOTE ]

Better than 50/50? Really? There's a better than 50/50 chance that NO beats SF AND NO beats STL AND Carolina loses to Indy AND Carolina loses to Tenn AND either NO beats Jax or Carolina loses to Atlanta? Maybe you should get the stats back out again.

Re: PokerFink\'s NFC Rankings (Week 7)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sem,

I look at NO and Car's schedules and see about 4 wins for each of them. As for the next three weeks, I see NO as 2-1, and Car as 1-2. Do you think Car is going to lose a home game vs. Atl? This weekend's game in SF doesn't have to go well for the Saints either. Then they play Jax at home which should be a loss. I can't see them being tied in 3 weeks. The 50/50 I see is whether the two teams maintain their current gap or NO gains a game.

[/ QUOTE ]
i realized my mistake right after i posted that. i was only accounting for a 1 game lead.

EDIT i give the saints 5-6 wins and carolina 2-3 depending on whether the saints can win in carolina.

Re: PokerFink\'s NFC Rankings (Week 7)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is SF a choice for worst team? Is that a joke?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's nothing funny about it. You can make a very good statistical argument that they're the worst team in the league.

[/ QUOTE ]

This depends on how you'd define worse. I don't think SF is the worst team by any measure, but I can certainly see the argument for it. I would judge it somewhat by talent and future. The SF offense is abysmal, but the defense has been pretty good. They've got some pieces on offense, whereas Miami is just a complete disaster minus a decent Oline now that Ronnie Brown is gone.

I'm obviously biased since I'm a SF fan. I'm curious what you think about the Niners going forward Fink. I don't get to see them a lot since I'm stuck with D&E in State College, and haven't been able to catch any non televised games on certain web outlets, but their Oline seems like such a disaster. To be honest, I thought this would be a strong point coming into this season, but it appears that Larry Allen has completely fallen off. I know you mentioned him before, but what do you think of Jennings? I'm really hoping Staley develops, because they're pretty [censored] giving up a top 10 pick to NE, and are probably getting back something in the 26+ range from Dallas. I'm also pretty skeptical that Smith has what it takes to run the team. I see him developing into a pretty average NFL starter, but don't really see anything more than that. I'd love to hear otherwise, but am pretty sure that's accurate.

This season really sucks for me, in past 49er down years I at least took some joy in following the Eagles as a sort of bandwagoner, but all I look forward to now is more Testaverde starts [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Apologies for the really rambly post

Re: PokerFink\'s NFC Rankings (Week 7)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the Giants are a real team to watch now. That defensive line is unstoppable. In the playoffs that line could make any QB have an awful game, so I could see them doing something.

Unfortunately Eli is their QB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um...Eli isn't at least a competent QB now? He's definitely not making anywhere near as many stupid mistakes as he used to...