Re: Deal values Facebook at at least 15 Billion Dollars
 

I would imagine that microsoft is getting access to a huge amount of facebooks stored information by buying such a small percent and thus deriving a valuation from that purchase is prolly irrelevant. Correct me if my logic is wrong.

The article in the economist is in this weeks issue. They go on to talk about how "graphing social patterns" can be very valuable and this is why some perceive them even to be the next google. However, the article went on to say that the information that face book collects is much less useful then the information that google collects for targeting it's advertising. The ads that google provides are useful to searchers, whereas the ads facebook are an annoyance. This statement makes sense to me because the main function of facebook is to foster social interaction, and not buying things etc, so advertising simply can't be as effective.

I think whenever something is such a stunning success, even if not in terms of revenue/profits, but in terms of sheer number in increase in users there is bound to be huge amounts of hype about it and thus crazy valuations are going to be thrown out there.

Re: Deal values Facebook at at least 15 Billion Dollars
 

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I would imagine that microsoft is getting access to a huge amount of facebooks stored information by buying such a small percent and thus deriving a valuation from that purchase is prolly irrelevant. Correct me if my logic is wrong.

The article in the economist is in this weeks issue. They go on to talk about how "graphing social patterns" can be very valuable and this is why some perceive them even to be the next google. However, the article went on to say that the information that face book collects is much less useful then the information that google collects for targeting it's advertising. The ads that google provides are useful to searchers, whereas the ads facebook are an annoyance. This statement makes sense to me because the main function of facebook is to foster social interaction, and not buying things etc, so advertising simply can't be as effective.

I think whenever something is such a stunning success, even if not in terms of revenue/profits, but in terms of sheer number in increase in users there is bound to be huge amounts of hype about it and thus crazy valuations are going to be thrown out there.

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I agree with your post for the most part, but just have the following things to add:

I agree that the facebook database is extremely valuable. However, I don't see how Microsoft could get much more value out of this as opposed to data-mining their msn and hotmail emails from their current database consisting of millions of users. That is, unless they are bascially paying $240 million for one big spam list of non-msn/hotmail users.

Also, I do not see how ads will ever be prevelant on a site like facebook (or youtube while we are at it). If these sites become flooded with ads, all of the current users will just flock to the next social networking site, that will remain ad-free until another major corporation purchases it and tries to add ads.

What many advertisers don't realize, is that the online ads they are making today are so intrusive, that they are not beneficial. Even if they are getting clicks, it does not mean the user clicked on their ad on purpose, the user very well might have been trying to click on that little "x" to try to close the ad that was scrolling across the screen (and moving as you put your cursor over it), while covering up the text you were trying to read. As soon as the user realizes they clicked on that ad by mistake, they close the window, yet the advertiser thinks they just had a successful click. There are countless examples of this all over the interent.

If you need to force ads down the users' throat, it is not going to be successful. The best ads are those that catch the users eye without being intruisive. Examples are google's adwords and how the banners are displayed here at 2+2.

Just about every news site is terrible at displaying intruisive ads. Instead of remaining at their site, I often close my browser in disgust because the article I am trying to read is covered by a pop-up/rollover ad that I cannot get to close. I end up going to another source to read the same news. They have this idea that their site is somehow special when in reality the news is plastered all over the internet.

Also many sports sites like cbs.sportsline and cnnsi.com are especially bad as well.

Re: Deal values Facebook at at least 15 Billion Dollars
 

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$15B sounds just terrible from what I know, which is obviously not near as much as those guys. I mean, no one has even showed FB making an operating profit yet.

Like I mentioned in a thread earlier about a $750M valuation, MySpace only made $10M on $550M revenue. And that's a site with more users and not plagued by the scalability problem facing FB where you can't have more than 5,000 friends.

It'll be interesting to see how this turns out.

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Why does everyone keep mentioning that? Who the hell has more than 5,000 friends...?

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http://www.sandiegoconcertarchive.co...ddyMercury.jpg

Re: Deal values Facebook at at least 15 Billion Dollars
 

Facebook >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>> Myspace

Re: Deal values Facebook at at least 15 Billion Dollars
 

How come you can only have 5000 friends on Facebook? If they wanted, wouldn't that "big problem" be solved in about 20 minutes?

Re: Deal values Facebook at at least 15 Billion Dollars
 

I don't see facebook being a fad. Kids as young as ~high school ageish use it to meet people, "hang out" online (something that isn't going away), and to express themselves. As you get into college, it's more for just keeping in touch with people, seeing what people are up to (facebook stalking), and sharing pictures, stories, etc. Once you graduate, it's more just for networking, keeping in touch, etc.

The beauty of it for facebook is that all of the college educated people are on it. I don't have statistics, but pretty much all of my friends that went to college are on facebook, and pretty much all of my friends that didn't aren't or have just recently joined. They have a stranglehold on the best and brightest that are under the age of 25. I can't think of a better advertising demographic to basically have complete control over.

Also remember, when comparing social networking sites, that facebook still has an immense "snob appeal" effect over myspace because for 2 years facebook was only open to .edu addresses. This made sure anyone involved was college educated and it kind of gave facebook a "we're better than myspace" feel, that for some reason still exists today. This might be because the website itself is just leaps and bounds better looking (with more functionality) than myspace.

tc

Re: Deal values Facebook at at least 15 Billion Dollars
 

I'll add that literally 95%+ of my friends are on facebook and use it at least a couple times per week, many every day. It's so rare that college educated kids aren't on facebook these days that I can literally name friends off the top of my head that AREN'T on it because it's weird that they aren't.

I'll admit that I am surprised that kids in my class are still using facebook as much as we do. We are 1 1/2 years out of college but still using it almost as much as we did in school.

As an aside, I thought I would always use AIM (aol instant messenger) religiously, but that has died down considerably for almost all of the people I know since we left college.

tc

Re: Deal values Facebook at at least 15 Billion Dollars
 

what will happen to the microsoft stock?

Re: Deal values Facebook at at least 15 Billion Dollars
 

btw, considering that microsoft got various perks out of this deal in addition to the part ownership, wouldn't it mean that this deal values facebook at AT MOST 15 billion dollars? i don't understand where this "at least" thing is coming from.

Re: Deal values Facebook at at least 15 Billion Dollars
 

Don't think this really should have much of an effect on MSFT. All the naysayers seem to forget that at the worst this is the equivalent of somebody spending a weeks salary on a trinket he doesn't want a rival to have.