Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

looks like the rams first win of the year to me.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

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Why has the line not moved on the Indy/Car game? From what I can tell people are hitting Indy at -7 pretty hard. Does Vegas know something that I don't know?

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I intend to wait until kickoff and pray that Carolina gets more points. I will be betting Carolina at +7 and I hope to get more, but I'm not sure that's happening.

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Anyone like NYG/Mia u48? Long trip, playing in a strange place, NYG def is solid, etc... The long trip is what does it for me.

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I thought about this too. However, fans want to see points. I think the NFL would love for this game to be high scoring. There may a little added pressure to bump up the score. Remember when Arizona and SF played in Mexico City? I'm not sure if that makes sense...

Also, I don't know if you're a West Coaster like me, but in reality these are both East Coast teams and it is only a 7 hour flight to London (from New York) and only 5 hours time difference. That's less of a time difference than when the players play in Hawaii for the Pro Bowl. I think I'm laying off of it.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

any thoughts on a round-robin with this 6pt teaser combo?

Colts -7 at Panthers
Raiders at Titans -7.5
Patriots at Redskins +16

don't really like betting against NE obviously, but getting 22 points at home going across 17 and 21 can't be wrong can it?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

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any thoughts on a round-robin with this 6pt teaser combo?

Colts -7 at Panthers
Raiders at Titans -7.5
Patriots at Redskins +16

don't really like betting against NE obviously, but getting 22 points at home going across 17 and 21 can't be wrong can it?

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The game is in NE.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

oops, i didn't even look, for some reason my brain took it as a given they were playing in washington, certainly not as confident as i was before, i still think 3 TD's is a nice cushion regardless of venue though

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

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any thoughts on a round-robin with this 6pt teaser combo?
Colts -7 at Panthers
Raiders at Titans -7.5
Patriots at Redskins +16

don't really like betting against NE obviously, but getting 22 points at home going across 17 and 21 can't be wrong can it?

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Well it is wrong if you define -EV as "wrong". The only time teasing 6 points is +EV is if by teasing the game you CHANGE the outcome >20-22% of the time. If you think WAS +16 has good value, bet that don't tease it.

Put another way, they only time teasing from +16 to +22 is a good bet is if NE wins by EXACTLY 17-22 over 21% of the time (since you need to hit the teaser leg ~72% of the time and if NE doesn't win by 16 or more 50% of the time, you should have simply taken WAS +16).

That was a long-winded answer, but does that make sense to you?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

yes, but a range of likely point differentials including:

-3 3 7 10 14 17 21 24 27

would have 17+21 (2/9) right at that 22% figure just on random chance, and i gotta think you would weight the range between 2-3 TD's in NE's favor as being more likely to occur than the scores at the outer bounds of the range

in any case i appreciate you helping me look at it from a more mathematical perspective

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

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looks like the rams first win of the year to me.

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LOL @ people that think Clev is a bad team this year.

Clev is the #4 scoring team this year. Their D isn't good, but the Rams are bottom of the league in both O and D.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

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looks like the rams first win of the year to me.

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LOL @ people that think Clev is a bad team this year.

Clev is the #4 scoring team this year. Their D isn't good, but the Rams are bottom of the league in both O and D.

- C -

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I'm much higher on Cleveland than most people, but this really feels like a game that STL can win.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

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I'm much higher on Cleveland than most people, but this really feels like a game that STL can win.

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Why is that, other than the fact they're playing the Browns who have historically sucked?

- C -