Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

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West Virginia -7? Oregon -2.5? Some of these lines are way off.

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I was thinking -6 on WVU so I'm not too surprised by that. I will be on the Mountaineers if it drops. Agree on Oregon. The Auburn line is the one that has me stumped. Seems like a typical letdown situation for Auburn. Is someone out for Ole Miss?

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

Oregon -2
Purdue -12.5
Kentucky -13
Ole Miss +17.5
Kansas -3
Boston College +3
Pittsburgh +10.5
Florida -10

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

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West Virginia -7? Oregon -2.5? Some of these lines are way off.

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I was thinking -6 on WVU so I'm not too surprised by that. I will be on the Mountaineers if it drops. Agree on Oregon. The Auburn line is the one that has me stumped. Seems like a typical letdown situation for Auburn. Is someone out for Ole Miss?

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I don't think WVU line is that far off. I would lean Rutgers, but wouldn't be betting them until 7.5.

WVU was -7ish at SF. SF -2.5 at Rutgers. So even at 6.5 it's been adjusted down slightly, even when Rutgers arguably hasn't done much to merit it (they needed a fake punt and fake FG to edge SF, could've gone either way).

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

leaning
Stanford
Washington St
Cal
Penn St
Ole Miss
Kansas
Duke

but will wait til late in the week

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

Yeah, but the only reason USF was favored against Rutgers is that they'd already beat WVU. You can't really compare the lines that way. I think a better comparison would be that USF's 2.15 points better than WVU in the Sagarin ratings and has a TO margin that's .43 turnovers better per game which would be worth just under 2 points. Therefore, the WVU line should be a half point lower than the USF line.

Maybe you could adjust 2 points in WVU's favor for reversion to preseason projections, but I can't possibly see how WVU should be favored by more than 4. 7 seems way too high. I agree that the Oregon line's probably better though.

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

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Stanford +12.5
Northwestern +12.5
Virginia Tech -2.5
Ole Miss +16.5
Illinois -13.5
North Carolina +6.5
Duke +18.5
Nevada -16.5

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Very surprised to see you like Northwestern here on the road. That line strikes me as way off. Purdue has blown out all their weak opponents at home, both this year and in the past. They just beat Iowa 31-6 and they're better than Northwestern. Purdue's only two struggles were against OSU and on the road at Michigan. Northwestern barely beat a truly awful Minnesota team and also lost to Duke at home.

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

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Yeah, but the only reason USF was favored against Rutgers is that they'd already beat WVU. You can't really compare the lines that way. I think a better comparison would be that USF's 2.15 points better than WVU in the Sagarin ratings and has a TO margin that's .43 turnovers better per game which would be worth just under 2 points. Therefore, the WVU line should be a half point lower than the USF line.

Maybe you could adjust 2 points in WVU's favor for reversion to preseason projections, but I can't possibly see how WVU should be favored by more than 4. 7 seems way too high. I agree that the Oregon line's probably better though.

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I don't think SF is better than WVU on a neutral if they played tomorrow. You forget Pat White didn't play in the 2nd half against SF, the game was at SF, and SF had a defensive touchdown in addition to several other costly turnovers for WVU, one when they were about to go in for a TD. WVU outgained them handily IIRC.

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

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Two I like thus far.

Mississippi +17.5
Oregon -2.5

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Adding:
Kansas -3
Pitt +10.5 (Navy couldn't stop them. How can UL?)
Nebraska +21.5 (Methinks the Huskers will enjoy getting away from home for a week.)
UCLA -6.5 (Trap game after Cal, but Wazzou can't stop the run.)

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

They outgained them handily in total yards due to more possessions, but they were almost dead even in YPP. I do think WVU's a little better than USF on a neutral field and that's why I mentioned reversion to preseason projections, but I don't think it's more than 1 or 2 points.

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

Leaning, but waiting:

Wyoming
VT
USF
Vandy
Baylor
Cal