Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

Ok now that i've read the hand w/o my clownhat on..

We are ahead of villains range, OOP, and are playing against a player who is giving us TONS of value by calling with worse hands but giving us little-to-no value by bluffing or valuebetting worse hands.


I suggest 3betting the turn to an amount that makes calling w/ AhX/set unprofitable.

Fold if he raises.

If he calls:

a) make a smallish valuebet on a safe river
b) on a heart river, c/f
c) bet/fold a river that pairs the board

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

my brain is starting to hurt a little but I'll try to answer your questions.


[ QUOTE ]
Keyser,

I hear ya, but...

ok, take out the set hands...8J/AJ/A8/A4/lower flushes/higher flushes make up his range, right? Do you really think THIS villain is folding to a smallish 3bet turn? If you do, then make your 3bet smaller to increase his calling percentage...make it like 90, and then your river bet will be like 105 or something...even with your range, I believe this is the most EV line- though I admit it is pretty thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose this is fine it's just too thin, imo. Of course villain can have two pair hands but I see flushes way more when the action goes like this (bet in a multiway pot, 2 callers, PRF bets again despite the obvious flush getting there, then a raise).

It also opens you up to making a huge mistake if he reacts in a way that we don't expect (i.e. he 4-bets a lower flush).

[ QUOTE ]
The range you are putting him on and the line you want to take just don't make sense...He is NEVER going to bet the river with a smaller flush or a weaker made hand, but you want to ch/c the river? I think that line is burning money by 1)not getting value out of the weaker part of his range, and 2)getting taken to value-town by hands that have us crushed.

I think raise turn/VB river>>call turn/bet river>>>>>>call turn/ch-c river.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, I agree with FGators about leading the river, although I don't know if I take that line at the tables. I think villain value bets lower flushes on the river close to 100%, so I disagree with that. He might also value-bet two pair hands (which are hands that in general he's not calling a 3-bet/big river bet with, although that is debatable as well).


This hand gets really murky when we're dealing with a donk, but one thing I can say with full confidence is that if we are playing a very good TAG we should never be 3-betting the turn, and a the EV of c/c the river vs. leading the river is very close since TAGs will bet lower flushes and will probably bet two pair hands as well (but fold them to a raise).

lastly, I edited this question into my last post so you might've missed it, and I think it's pretty important: does a donkified villain ever get all-in with a 7 high flush here? And if he is shoving it, how confident are you now about 3-bet/folding?

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok now that i've read the hand w/o my clownhat on..

We are ahead of villains range, OOP, and are playing against a player who is giving us TONS of value by calling with worse hands but giving us little-to-no value by bluffing or valuebetting worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just so damn dangerous to say "the pot is only 12.5bbs and there's 600bbs left to play, but we're ahead of his range so lets put lots of monies in when 4 higher flushes beat us." I might just be being a nit about this, I dunno.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
It also opens you up to making a huge mistake if he reacts in a way that we don't expect (i.e. he 4-bets a lower flush).

[/ QUOTE ]

This! Casper, I think you are assuming way too much about Villan's tendencies with lower flushes. By becoming passive in this deep situation, we are able to save ourselves from making a huge mistake.

Why do you think the "donkey" will only shove better flushes?

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok now that i've read the hand w/o my clownhat on..

We are ahead of villains range, OOP, and are playing against a player who is giving us TONS of value by calling with worse hands but giving us little-to-no value by bluffing or valuebetting worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just so damn dangerous to say "the pot is only 12.5bbs and there's 600bbs left to play, but we're ahead of his range so lets put lots of monies in when 4 higher flushes beat us." I might just be being a nit about this, I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

See the thing is, we're not putting a lot of money in.

We're losing what, like 50-70bb's when we are beat? If he is tricky he will just call the turn 3bet with the nuts and extract another river bet.

Meanwhile, we are making him define his hand so we dont lose a lot og money if he has us beat, making him play unprofitably with a draw, and getting max value out of worse flushes/worse hands.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

again, how confident are you he doesn't 4-bet a smaller flush? And why would you want to define your own so well while this deep?

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
my goodness, I really think ch/c river is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I kinda like to control the pot when I have a highly marginal hand. Big pots for big hands, and all that. You may play differently and be happy to gamble hundreds of BB, or may somehow believe that your hand is not highly marginal, in which case there is nothing else I can say.

Edit: We have 30 hands on Villain. Even if we had 1000s of hands his stats aren't all that donkish and even huge idiots realize when there is a flush on the board. You might also not realize that this type of player will often play any 2 suited cards and there are WAY more combos that are ahead of us than we beat. OK, I'm done.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
again, how confident are you he doesn't 4-bet a smaller flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty confident. If he 4bets a lower flush, he is essentially turning his hand into a bluff and thats the downside of taking our line.


[ QUOTE ]
And why would you want to define your own so well while this deep?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he can't handread and will still play poorly with a large number of hands in his range.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. FGators, despite being annoying as hell, was totally right imo. Unless you have some specific history or something that orange surely would've mentioned, this is always a flush. Only question is whether ours is higher.

PS, lock in 5..4...

[/ QUOTE ]

[censored] i agree with FGators, questioning myself lol

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

Keyser, (I don't want to quote because then it gets forever long)

I think villain very very very rarely 4bets lower flushes or anything that beats us.

Also, I dont understand why you think this villain- who by his pf stats indicates he likes to call (yes its preflop, and yes its only 30 hands)- would rather BET than call??? I guess thats where our thought process diverges.

I agree that 3betting a TAG on the turn sucks.

As for your question- No, I do not think even a donk will get it all in here without a higher flush...but we are not trying to get it in...I am trying to maximize value from what I percieve as a wide enough range.

FWIW, this really just comes down to what you said earlier about 9Thh being just under the line you would raise with....for me it is just barely above the line....so that and then our ideas of villains betting/calling frequency is the base of our disagreement.

Albedoa, I think becoming passive in this hand is allowing villain to control the size of the pot with hands that we beat, and to bet when we are beaten. This would obviously be a totally different scenario if we were IP.

Pineapple, I dont know why you got so upset- I definitely understand why most of the people voicing their opinion are just calling the turn, but I do not agree with ch/c the river for reasons I already stated. Since you believe that his range is only flushes, and since there are more flush combos that beat us than we beat, I believe that if you check the river you should fold to his bet.