Re: WCOOP HORSE
 

betgo, is that you at the final table of the pl he one, if it is congrats

Re: WCOOP HORSE
 

Busted out 50 short of the money with this hand, it sucks but i cant fold right?

PokerStars Game #12214048566: Tournament #70000012, $200+$15 HORSE (Razz Limit) - Level XIII (1000/2000) - 2007/09/22 - 21:56:06 (ET)
Table '70000012 97' 8-max
Seat 1: roo_400 (14896 in chips)
Seat 2: midastruck (3152 in chips)
Seat 3: mausilein (9436 in chips)
Seat 4: Fjodor_M (7558 in chips)
Seat 5: Nobel (23993 in chips)
Seat 6: matt20 (31080 in chips)
Seat 7: Driveler (35827 in chips)
Seat 8: cameo (18898 in chips)
matt20: posts the ante 200
Driveler: posts the ante 200
cameo: posts the ante 200
roo_400: posts the ante 200
midastruck: posts the ante 200
mausilein: posts the ante 200
Fjodor_M: posts the ante 200
Nobel: posts the ante 200
*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to roo_400 [2c]
Dealt to midastruck [8s]
Dealt to mausilein [5c]
Dealt to Fjodor_M [5h 2s 4c]
Dealt to Nobel [Qh]
Dealt to matt20 [5d]
Dealt to Driveler [3c]
Dealt to cameo [Jc]
Nobel: brings in for 300
matt20: folds
Driveler: folds
cameo: folds
roo_400: raises 700 to 1000
midastruck: folds
mausilein: raises 1000 to 2000
Fjodor_M: raises 1000 to 3000
Nobel: folds
roo_400: calls 2000
mausilein: raises 1000 to 4000
Betting is capped
Fjodor_M: calls 1000
roo_400: calls 1000
*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to roo_400 [2c] [Ah]
Dealt to mausilein [5c] [7h]
Dealt to Fjodor_M [5h 2s 4c] [Kc]
roo_400: bets 1000
mausilein: raises 1000 to 2000
Fjodor_M: raises 1000 to 3000
roo_400: raises 1000 to 4000
Betting is capped
mausilein: calls 2000
Fjodor_M: calls 358 and is all-in

Re: WCOOP HORSE
 

Based on the 3rd Street Action I would put your villains on the following ranges:

Mausilein (6- 6- 5)
roo_400 (7- 7- 2)

I'm not too sure how reasonable these ranges are as I didn't spend much time observing the villains while watching you, but the worse these ranges get the better you are off. Given these ranges you have about 14.7% equity or just under 1:6 odds of Winning. The pot is laying you just over 1:6 pot odds if you get both players in. Should roo_400 fold you are getting worse potodds of 1:5.5 but your equity actually increases to about 28%, which would be an even more favorable outcome. In any case, putting the money in is +cEV

More importantly however, there is no reasonable way you could fold and go back to a stack of less than 2 BigBets, being forced to move in again very very soon when you have the chance of winning a very playable 20k+ stack.

I wonder if anybody agrees with the ranges I put the villains on. I think the one for Mausilein is a tad too strict as he (she?) is very short as well and can't fold that hand at any point, either.

Re: WCOOP HORSE
 

Hero is in seat 4 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the hole.

Tournament - HORSE - Razz - Level XIII (1,000/2,000), Ante 200, Bring-In 300 (converter)

Seat 1: 14,896
Seat 2: 3,152
Seat 3: 9,436
Seat 4: 7,558
Seat 5: 23,993
Seat 6: 31,080
Seat 7: 35,827
Seat 8: 18,898

3rd Street - (1.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___calls___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (13.90 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___raises
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___calls 358 and is all-in

5th Street - (12.63 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls 1236 and is all-in
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___all-in

6th Street - (14.25 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___all-in
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___all-in

River - (14.25 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___all-in
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___all-in

Total pot: (14.25 BB)

Re: WCOOP HORSE
 

I wouldn't have three-bet on third. With a significantly smaller stack, I think you'd want to commit on third. With a very large stack, jamming third doesn't oblige you see the river. With a stack that has just about enough money to see one hand through, I would want to see more than three cards before making that commitment. I would want to be able to get away from the hand in the event that fourth came down as lousy as it did. I'd also save my money on fourth if possible. You leave yourself with a little more than a bet, and I don't think that the actual scenario on fifth leaves you with enough equity to call hoping for runner/runner.

Re: WCOOP HORSE
 

Dude congrats on the second place finish, that is sick man!

Re: WCOOP HORSE
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dude congrats on the second place finish, that is sick man!

[/ QUOTE ]
Turned down a chop and was up 4-1 HU at one point, so a little disappointed, but this is still my biggest cash.

Re: WCOOP HORSE
 

[ QUOTE ]
Busted out 50 short of the money with this hand, it sucks but i cant fold right?

[/ QUOTE ]
It was a nice hand with live cards - but you could have folded, or you could have tried to manage the pot to keep it smaller on 3rd. Maybe that wouldn't work, but the question is: did you want to make the money? You got two opponents in here. Let them knock each other out.

I read something once by Joe Seebok, I think it was, about going out near the money in a tournament under the philosophy: "I came to win." I believe his father gave him the advice that first you get in the money, then you "win."

This isn't everone's philosophy, but it made sense to me.

You can fold.

And BETGO! How cool are you? Congratultralations to ya!

Re: WCOOP HORSE
 

So Andy, Praxising, do you really consider a fold on 4th Street a viable alternative, leaving you totally crippled at a Stack of less than 2 Big Bets, in utter need to play a Hand within the next 4 or 5 Hands in order to double up and still be left with a stack that desperately needs to increase to have a chance of making the money? I can see folding after just flatcalling on 3rd Street and wait a bit, hoping to pick a better spot to move within the next few hands, but I am hard pressed to find a fold on 4th Street. Then again, I'm definitly no Razz expert, especially not concerning Tournaments. However, the Average stack was around 17 to 18k at that time and even the 7k Stack at the start of the Hand was one of the 20 smallest in the tournament IIRC.

Re: WCOOP HORSE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Busted out 50 short of the money with this hand, it sucks but i cant fold right?

[/ QUOTE ]
It was a nice hand with live cards - but you could have folded, or you could have tried to manage the pot to keep it smaller on 3rd. Maybe that wouldn't work, but the question is: did you want to make the money? You got two opponents in here. Let them knock each other out.

I read something once by Joe Seebok, I think it was, about going out near the money in a tournament under the philosophy: "I came to win." I believe his father gave him the advice that first you get in the money, then you "win."

This isn't everone's philosophy, but it made sense to me.
You can fold.


[/ QUOTE ]
Its true i satellited in, but making the money was not my primary concern so i would never fold the likely best hand on 3rd. In addition Mausilein was playing a bit loose in the Holdem and O8 levels so i didnt necessarily put him on 3 to a wheel.
I think folding a live wheel draw on 3rd would have been awful. Flatcalling might have been the way to go considering stack sizes, but i couldn't know 4th would be that hard to me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]