Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

Grunch: I'm just c/ring the flop in this spot. Because the pot is protected on the flop, we can sell a made hand to the TAG way better by c/ring the flop. I like your line much better than c/c,c/c though.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

I don't see where you get 12% from, btw. Your expectation is always positive. You can compare it to a check/call though. I'm not sure about the pot sizes, I just took your numbers.

ev1 = P(f)*5.75 + (1-P(f)) * (12/45 * 7.75 + 33/45 * -2)
=> ev1 = P(f)*5.75 + (1-P(f))*0.6
=> ev1 = 5.15 * P(f) + 0.6

check/call:
ev2 = 12/45 * 6.75 + 33/45 * -1 = 1.8 - 0.73 = 1.07

ev2 = ev1 = 5.15 * P(f) + 0.6
=> P(f) = 0.467 / 5.15 = 0.09 = 9%.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

[ QUOTE ]
Did this quick. I think the math is accurate. Feel free to critique:
Times he folds: +X(5.75BB)
Times he doesn’t fold and you hit: +(100-X)(12/45)(7.75BB)
Times he doesn’t fold and you don’t hit: -(100-X)(33/45)(2BB)

X=% of time he folds to your turn raise
5.75X+(100-X)2.07-(100-X)1.47
5.75X+207-2.07X-147+1.47X
5.15X+60
X=11.65%

If he folds 12% of the time, this play is good. The math ignores the times you get 3-bet by AA and the times he calls and you spike a K and beat his QQ/JJ for whatever reason, but those situation happen a small % of the time.

I really feel like we don't do enough math here and just speculate alot in SSHE.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no doubt that c/ring the turn is +EV, I just think c/ring the flop is more +EV.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

Pot Sizes:
If you raise now and he folds, you win the 5.75BB that's in the pot
If you raise now and he calls and you hit, you win 7.75BB(5.75BB + his call on the raise + the bet he calls on the river)
If you raise now and he calls and you miss, you lose the 2 BB that you raised the turn with.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have no doubt that c/ring the turn is +EV, I just think c/ring the flop is more +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this point has merit. I think this reduces the action we get for the times we do hit though, given that the TAGs range is quite open and we only have a slight equity advantage 3 ways. It is worth noting we are all biased by the fish folding the turn that alot of responses in this thread are about how we can "sell our hand to the TAG" to get him to lay his hand down, when we know that usually the fish calls this turn.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

In any reasonably big pot even a pure bluff always seems +EV, and especially a semi-bluff you have some chance to draw out in the event he does call. It's just that these raw percentages are so difficult to interpret. The same happens with river calls: when are you really 12% ahead as opposed to 8%?

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

[ QUOTE ]
It is worth noting we are all biased by the fish folding the turn that alot of responses in this thread are about how we can "sell our hand to the TAG" to get him to lay his hand down, when we know that usually the fish calls this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
What? If the fish calls the turn bet, this c/r would be preposterous.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

[ QUOTE ]
nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a good, tricky, agressive player like James, there's no way the villain should fold these hands.

-McGee

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is worth noting we are all biased by the fish folding the turn that alot of responses in this thread are about how we can "sell our hand to the TAG" to get him to lay his hand down, when we know that usually the fish calls this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
What? If the fish calls the turn bet, this c/r would be preposterous.

[/ QUOTE ]

HB: I'm not being clear. I'm saying people are saying we should c/r the flop because it "sells him the strength of our hand." All of this is after watching fish fold the turn, changing the mantality of the post to "how can we pick up the pot". C/R the flop might let us pick up the pot on a later street, but we shouldn't expect this result to happen often with a fish CCing with this range. We C/R the flop for value.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have no doubt that c/ring the turn is +EV, I just think c/ring the flop is more +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this point has merit. I think this reduces the action we get for the times we do hit though, given that the TAGs range is quite open and we only have a slight equity advantage 3 ways. It is worth noting we are all biased by the fish folding the turn that alot of responses in this thread are about how we can "sell our hand to the TAG" to get him to lay his hand down, when we know that usually the fish calls this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

While this is true, we should also note that the fish calling the turn dramatically reduces his chances of folding. A 33/2/.5 calls down too much, especially once he's put in a bet on a big street. I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "reducing our action when we do hit". The way I see it, TAG and fish either have hands that will see showdown or they don't. If they don't, c/r the flop sells a made hand to the TAG and the fish will fold anyway. If they do, c/ring the flop ties them to the pot and we'll get action when we hit. Pls explain the reducing action comment.