Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Yeah.. I admit to being a baseball stats noob, but JoA's suggestion of bunting 50% of the time doesn't make much sense to me.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Butcher boy, FTW.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

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Yeah.. I admit to being a baseball stats noob, but JoA's suggestion of bunting 50% of the time doesn't make much sense to me.

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I think it is to keep the defense honest and make the 3b play in which increases the chance of a hit next time. Bunting some of the time will make them come in next time, where you dont bunt and have a higher chance of a hit than normal. Bunting will sacrifice some EV, but since it usually gets the runner over to 3rd, what you are giving up is small enough that it is more than made up for by the increased chance of a hit next time. I think.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

is swinging away but try to hit it to right field an option?

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah.. I admit to being a baseball stats noob, but JoA's suggestion of bunting 50% of the time doesn't make much sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meta-game!

If you always bunt here, you hurt your chances of successfully bunting. If you never bunt here, you hurt your chances of successfully swinging away.

Maybe the percentage should be something like bunting 25% of the time or whatever. How often you bunt is really a sliding scale based on the skill of the 3B and how far in he's playing.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah.. I admit to being a baseball stats noob, but JoA's suggestion of bunting 50% of the time doesn't make much sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meta-game!

If you always bunt here, you hurt your chances of successfully bunting. If you never bunt here, you hurt your chances of successfully swinging away.

Maybe the percentage should be something like bunting 25% of the time or whatever. How often you bunt is really a sliding scale based on the skill of the 3B and how far in he's playing.

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This makes no sense. Are you assuming hitter is average for this?

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

If you bunt 100% of the time, the defense can play at a depth which makes bunting -EV. If you hit away 100% of the time, the defense can play far enough back that hitting away is -EV. So, in order to have the defense play incorrectly, sometimes you must bunt, and other times you must hit away, and there is a ratio of bunting/hitting at which the defense cannot play optimally. If the defense doesn't try and play optimally, then you can lean towards one or the other.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Not enough info to give an answer.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

A lot more butns fail then result in infield hits/errors

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

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If you hit away 100% of the time, the defense can play far enough back that hitting away is -EV.

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I just don't buy this, unless maybe the guy is a really sick bunter. Even if they know for sure he's not bunting, they're just playing double play depth. It's like a regular at bat. See Thremp's first post.