Re: 100PLO: AAxx is costing me a fortune, flop decision.
 

well we're getting >2.3:1 to call against just ONE guy, who has sets discounted from his range, so we only need 30% equity HU, and if the 3rd guy tags along we only need 23% equity.

Re: 100PLO: AAxx is costing me a fortune, flop decision.
 

Not sure we can discount sets from his range... as BB with a set I certainly wouldn't be giving free cards on this board.

Re: 100PLO: AAxx is costing me a fortune, flop decision.
 

You wouldn't expect the PFR, the guy w/ 2/3rds of a potsized bet left, who put in the 4th raise PF, to just stick it in on the flop? (and then also trap in button, who OP says is playing any 4 cards?)

Re: 100PLO: AAxx is costing me a fortune, flop decision.
 

I fold this.

Re: 100PLO: AAxx is costing me a fortune, flop decision.
 

a little depeendent on table texture... if the button knows that the lead is weak and that you're calling with AA and he's willing to call light this is a fold but if it's hu you're generally correct to call.

I think all things considered I'd fold this expecting to be be about breakeven long-term... at these stakes you don't need to gamble so much to make your earn.

Re: 100PLO: AAxx is costing me a fortune, flop decision.
 

[ QUOTE ]
board: jc5s9c
Hand equity
Ah3hAd7d 28.16%
**** ..... 35.99%
**** ..... 35.85%

You're a significant dog to any 4 cards on this board... I think I could find a fold. Although with all the dead money it's not really clear cut.

[/ QUOTE ]
A+

Re: 100PLO: AAxx is costing me a fortune, flop decision.
 

If you run it with 50% of the two pair hands, any wrap, any open-ender, any combo draw, a Q-hi flush draw or better, and any pair + FD for BB 50% of the time and that and the same range + all two pairs and sets for button the other 50% of the time, I think our cumulative equity is better than $138. The important thing to remember is that BB has to think you're pushing if checked to here and will usually only lead when he thinks you'd have correct odds to call.

Re: 100PLO: AAxx is costing me a fortune, flop decision.
 

[ QUOTE ]
The important thing to remember is that BB has to think you're pushing if checked to here and will usually only lead when he thinks you'd have correct odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this right. In a heads up pot perhaps, but when the pot is three way the player first to act will often try to protect a hand like two pair, a set, or strong combo hand whose equity goes way down on a blank turn if the flop gets checked around.

Re: 100PLO: AAxx is costing me a fortune, flop decision.
 

I disagree with most of what people have said. Having the button behind, as long as he is an ok player,. it's fine to call here because your call indicates a lot of strength, especially if you've been playing fairly nitty. If I was the button in this situation I would pass a lot of hands that are likely in great shape or huge dogs. The lead out is almost never a set. I can think of maybe 3 players among about 10k that i have played with that would routinely lead with two pair or better in this spot. You are almost always looking at a hand that is trying to get a little fold equity like QJTx, bare clubs, etc.

Re: 100PLO: AAxx is costing me a fortune, flop decision.
 

The OP said that button plays any 4 cards preflop even with raises out, does that change our call?