Re: UM football schedule
 

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The obvious solution to this problem is to stop playing so many damn cupcakes.

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Blame that on the NCAA for making teams go to 12+ games.

Re: UM football schedule
 

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The obvious solution to this problem is to stop playing so many damn cupcakes.

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Blame that on the NCAA for making teams go to 12+ games.

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Please, if USC can do it, everyone can do it.

Re: UM football schedule
 

I expect to see neutral site games become much more common, especially when it comes to setting up home and homes with smaller I-A schools. Wisconsin played "@" Bowling Green in Cleveland, and OSU is going to play Toledo there in 2009.

I'm not entirely sure what the deal is with the Jacksonville FSU/Alabama game, but NFL stadiums are plenty big enough to create a sufficient paycheck to get powers on the road.


The cupcakes want to play the powers, the powers realize that voters are morons, everyone wins.

Re: UM football schedule
 

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I expect to see neutral site games become much more common, especially when it comes to setting up home and homes with smaller I-A schools. Wisconsin played "@" Bowling Green in Cleveland, and OSU is going to play Toledo there in 2009.

I'm not entirely sure what the deal is with the Jacksonville FSU/Alabama game, but NFL stadiums are plenty big enough to create a sufficient paycheck to get powers on the road.


The cupcakes want to play the powers, the powers realize that voters are morons, everyone wins.

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I really hate the neutral thing. One of the best things about college is the atmosphere; not least of which is the large student presence. You lose that if you play far from home (see ND playing WSU in San Antonio). Also, as a student (albeit for my final year), I'd be livid if they moved a top game out of AA and to some place several hundred miles away.

Finally, re: App St, yeah they're I-AA and they suck (although #1 in I-AA), but they will be far, far better than Eastern. Not that that means much, but I'm just saying.

Re: UM football schedule
 

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Illinois


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no

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definitely losable
--a couple of analysts/magazines have picked it as the big10 upset of the year

Michigan wins about 70% of the time according to the numbers I have right now. Illinois matches up well in this one.

Re: UM football schedule
 

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here's my predicted lines based on current information
NA v Appalachian State--this is too lopsided for me--
-6 v Oregon
-9.5 v Notre Dame
-5 v Penn State
-14.5 @ Northwestern
-32 v Eastern Michigan
-13.5 v Purdue
-8 @ Illinois
-15 v Minnesota
-15.5 @ Michigan St
+2.5 @ Wisconsin
-3 v tOSU

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Any easy way to turn this into an 'undefeated' parlay and see how likely it is?

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well...you need a database that aligns how much a line like that wins a game. Actually, you need more as you need a projected total to get the range of possible scores to help figure deviations from median outcome.

the error rate will be huge

roughly, <5%

Re: UM football schedule
 

The tide is turning in Champaign, IL this year...

Re: UM football schedule
 

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I expect to see neutral site games become much more common, especially when it comes to setting up home and homes with smaller I-A schools. Wisconsin played "@" Bowling Green in Cleveland, and OSU is going to play Toledo there in 2009.

I'm not entirely sure what the deal is with the Jacksonville FSU/Alabama game, but NFL stadiums are plenty big enough to create a sufficient paycheck to get powers on the road.


The cupcakes want to play the powers, the powers realize that voters are morons, everyone wins.

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tOSU also did this about 4 years ago against Cincinnati playing them in Paul Brown Stadium.

Re: UM football schedule
 

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losable games

Oregon
Penn St
Illinois
Wisconsin
Ohio St

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Oregon, maybe. UM always struggles against west coast teams, but the game is in Ann Arbor, so I think they will get by Oregon.

Penn State? I don't think so. PSU won nine games last year, but all against 2nd tier teams. Furthermore, PSU got whipped by a sorry ass ND team last year. The BigTen was pretty soft last year, and probably will be this year. That, and UM owns PSU. Michigan has not lost to them since '96. I think Michigan State has a better chance against UM than PSU does.

Illinois? Are you just saying something stupid to try to be provocative? They haven't won more than three games in a season in four years.

Wisconsin - 16 returning starters and a late season game in Madison is hard to argue with. But UW lost Stocco and Joe Thomas after last season. Rumor has it there isn't a lot of experience among the incoming quarterbacks. This will probably be UM's toughest game.

OSU - They only return 10 starters, but they have history on their side. The game is in Ann Arbor though, and there are a lot of motivated seniors that haven't beat OSU yet. SO I give the edge to UM in this one.

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well...Michigan will likely be favored in all but one game. But, to borrow from poker, the best hand doesn't always stand up.

You are quite mistaken that the big11ten is weaker than last year. It is much, much tougher. The only reason Michigan and Wisky got so far last year was they didn't have many losable games as the middle of the big11ten sucked ass.
So, let's say Michigan and Wisconsin this year = tOSU and Michigan of last year. Penn State is much better than last year. They get Austin Scott back (remember the orange bowl v FSU?) and have the talent out at WR. The question is will Morelli develop. Well, he looks a whole lot better going into this year than Robinson did going into the Orange Bowl year. Since bringing in uberoffensive coordinator Galen Hall, Penn St has its offensive mojo back. tOSU this year equals Wisky of last year. They have a tenacious defense lead by Lauranitis. The offense will take some time to get but Boeckman is highly thought of and Beanie Wells and Brian Robiskie are the real deal. tOSU has stocked up on recruits the last few years. Their program just reloads. Iowa will be better. They were driven apart by the lack of a breakout receiver and Drew Tate's inability to look downfield after the rib injury in week 3(?). In the bowl game v Texas, they found the breakout receiver. The back-up QB looks good. They bring back a ton of starters and fill in the missing gaps with players from a top 10 recruiting class a few years ago. Purdue will be much stronger. They bring back nearly everyone from a decent bowl squad. A full year's experience is great for Painter in Tiller's system. Their o-line was fantastic last year and is back almost intact. Illinois will be light years ahead of an underrated squad from last year. Phil Steele has Illinois the #2 improved team in the country. Honestly, Illinois should've been 5-7 or 6-6 last year if you look at most the metrics. Unfortunately, they had a horrible +/- (partly their fault and partly bad luck in a number that shows lots of mean reversion the next year). They fill in the missing offensive threat with the #1 WR recruit in the country (who has been dominant in spring and summer work). They bring back almost the entire o-line from the squad that led the big11ten in ypc. They bring back 9 starters on defense and all the better players from an above average squad. The majority of news mags have Illinois a bowl team this year. While Michigan should still beat the Illini, a road game v a legit bowl contender is almost always a losable game (see SC at Oregon State last year).

I think Michigan is very, very good. However, the depth of the Big11Ten is back. It's tough to have to go out there and win week after week after week...see Florida and LSU of last season.

Re: UM football schedule
 

Doesn't it make more sense that they played in Paul Brown Stadium because it can hold more fans than UC's regular stadium at Nippert?

This isn't really a 'neutral' field as it were imo.
It's the Bearcats choosing to play their home game in the city's biggest venue (just a few miles from their regular home-field of Nippert Stadium).

I remember going to a UC vs. Miami (Ohio) Thanksgiving football game in 1984 or so that was at Riverfront Stadium. I don't believe this was considered a neutral-field game either although perhaps it was.


edit - Okay, wait.
Tom, are you saying this was an OSU home-game that they elected to play at PB Stadium? I vaguely remember the game but I completely forgot all the details about whose game it was, etc?