Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Grunch turn.

I feel like I must bet this turn. I'm hoping to get raised by a worse hand to face the two checkers w/ 2 bets cold.

I think a c/r is too risky. If it were checked through, that would be disastrous.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

On the turn I would check and call one bet. Its very tough because I would want to showdown because this board is very coordinated however it is tough to extract value because the button is going to raise here with sorts of pair/combo draws we are ahead of and I want to get to the river cheap. One bet cheap.

My plan for the river would be to bet/fold a safe card like a 5. Check/fold hearts and maybe Check/call some other rivers that might suck like maybe a J.

BTW - Black hair/make up/thin, iPod, smoker, kinda cocky but nice enough? She doesn't play to well. If we are thinking of the same person I definitely think she would raise the turn again with a pair/heart combo. Then again I am a LAGTARD so everyone raises me...

Edit: Damn everyone wants to bet the turn! I don't get it...we either have a razor thin equity advantage or we are drawing super thin/dead. Do we really care if this gets checked through? Why? In general I think people are forgetting there are two players who called two OOP on the flop.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

I say check fold. Looks to me like you're drawing thin, most likely dead.
fwiw I suck at poker.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

I'm with you. I see all these posts about punishing draws and not giving the button a free card and I scratch my head.

Those are valid concerns when you're ahead, or have a reasonable expectation of being ahead more than half the time. On this board, with 3 opponents, I'd even agree with that if I thought we were ahead even 1/3 of the time. The K on the turn makes that highly unlikely. I seriously doubt we're ahead more than 20% of the time vs the range of hands our 3 opponents have played up to this point. I don't think there's 5-10% fold equity in betting (i'm happy if someone proves me wrong, though)

We have enough pot equity to call one bet here, but making that bet is negative marginal equity. We want to get to showdown cheaply, so we don't hate the free card. Plus, if we bet and the button raises, no draw folds, so betting doesn't add equity by knocking anyone out.

I check and call one bet.

Also, if we check and the button bets, we save a bet when one of the players in front of us decloaks with a big hand.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

If you check and the button bets and both opponents call, you can't fold. You'll be getting 15:1. Your hand is good more than 6.2% of the time.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Those are all pretty logical arguments Kurn. You sure you're not Vulcan?

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Why would we ever want to give a free card considering the nature of the board, the size of the pot, and the likelyhood that at least two of our opponents are drawing? Considering how big the pot is, we WANT to be raised by the button with some kind of combo pair/draw. Even if the bet itself is -EV, I would guess that letting this turn get checked through is way more -EV. I think checking is a big mistake.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm with you. I see all these posts about punishing draws and not giving the button a free card and I scratch my head.

Those are valid concerns when you're ahead, or have a reasonable expectation of being ahead more than half the time. On this board, with 3 opponents, I'd even agree with that if I thought we were ahead even 1/3 of the time. The K on the turn makes that highly unlikely. I seriously doubt we're ahead more than 20% of the time vs the range of hands our 3 opponents have played up to this point. I don't think there's 5-10% fold equity in betting (i'm happy if someone proves me wrong, though)

[/ QUOTE ]

If we check, it checks through, and we end up losing on the river, we've lost money from an FTOPS standpoint--however many bets our opponents would've called on the turn multiplied by our current pot equity. If we bet and are called by one or more better hands, we neither lose nor gain if we'd planned on check/calling. If we bet and fold to another raise, we've lost nothing--again, because we're planning to call a bet if we check. Okay, some tiny fraction of a bet for the times we would've rivered the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and it gave us a winner, but that's pretty inconsequential.

The only times betting really costs us more than check/calling are when we either bet/call (and lose) or we bet and one of the limpers check/raises, where we would have folded had we checked it, button bet, and then the raise occurred--basically MUBS. I do not think that the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in any way affected how often we're ahead--putting Button on exactly KK seems pretty far-fetched given the description of the player.

This is why I'm so much in favor of bet/fold, again assuming that Button would not raise again on the turn with a hand that can't beat AA.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why would we ever want to give a free card considering the nature of the board, the size of the pot, and the likelyhood that at least two of our opponents are drawing? Considering how big the pot is, we WANT to be raised by the button with some kind of combo pair/draw. Even if the bet itself is -EV, I would guess that letting this turn get checked through is way more -EV. I think checking is a big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

personally i think calling a raise here after our donk bet is a mistake.

i still like the donk however

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

The reason i chose c/f was i put the button on K J preflop. I also think that either the straight or the flush is already made.
fwiw, I still suck at poker