Re: Final Four
 

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This is more of a general question. How much of a factor should the possibility of overtime play when betting the over/under?

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bump?

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It's pretty important, but it is also well reflected in the lines (like everything else). You will not find an edge by trying to look for "over-weighted" or "under-weighted" likelihoods for overtime. It is frustrating when you have under and it shoulda won but goes over due to OT. Equally, it is major suckout when OVER comes in for you for same reason. Just one of the many reasons why variance is so wide in sportsbetting. These markets are extremely efficient and you will simply not find significantly good/bad value in the lines, especially on big games. Period.

But by all means if you have a "hunch" that OT is relatively likely for whatever reason, go ahead and take a flier on the over. But don't expect the OT factor to be a very big reason why your bet may win.......

Re: Final Four
 

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I admit to not understanding the Florida line. Help explain to my ignorant self. UCLA catching 2.5 vs. Kansas on a pseudo home court that had to be worth a point and a half. Call it 4 on a truly neutral court.

Now they travel 3 time zones to Atlanta, and with Carolina out, it should be a pretty big Florida fan base. Pseudo home game. And the spread is sitting at 3? How is it lower. I'm guessing FLA would've been favored by a point or two vs. KU.

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You have to take into account that UCLA's team value went up by beating KU.

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Exactly. This accounts for 100% of what confused OP. That performance was very significant.

BUT - is it being given just a little bit TOO much respect?? That's really the question....

Re: Final Four
 

Random thoughts - caveat that I'm a Gator.

This squad of starters is 9-0 in the Georgia Dome over the past 3 years in single elim tourney games. The most recent coming 3 weeks ago where the average margin of victory was just under 20ppg.

Additionally, it's worth noting that Humphrey and Green have shot just under 49% from long range in the Dome during those 9 games (shooters are known for sometimes struggling to adjust to the backdrops of large Domes - the Georgia Dome is for football and the court is set in one of the endzones).

Many talk about UCLA's defense and Florida's offense but make no mistake that Florida's success and consistency also comes from their defense. They run a faster tempo than UCLA and thus allow more ppg but they are holding opponents to a lower fg%.

FG%-FGA%
UF = 52.7% - 40.6% = 12.1%
UCLA = 48.0% - 42.6% = 5.4%

3FG%-3FGA%
UF = 40.5% - 20.1% = 20.4% (Wow!!!)
UCLA = 37.9% -35.4% = 2.5%

Of course UCLA has had a tougher SoS and if you go to KenPom you'll see he has UCLA as having a tougher adjD but it's something to consider. That 3fga% is pretty staggering and no anomaly as Coach Donovan stresses that the big men flash out to the perimeter and get a hand in the faces of the opposing teams shooters.

I read an article which noted that the "smart" early money moved the line slightly in favor of UCLA.

A comment was made regarding fan base. As a Florida fan living in Atlanta, I still would predict UF has the smallest representation, even as defending champs. I hope I'm wrong though. The school just doesn't travel for hoops like they do for football yet - even when it's only a short trip up from Gainesville.

Re: Final Four
 

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I admit to not understanding the Florida line. Help explain to my ignorant self. UCLA catching 2.5 vs. Kansas on a pseudo home court that had to be worth a point and a half. Call it 4 on a truly neutral court.

Now they travel 3 time zones to Atlanta, and with Carolina out, it should be a pretty big Florida fan base. Pseudo home game. And the spread is sitting at 3? How is it lower. I'm guessing FLA would've been favored by a point or two vs. KU.

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You have to take into account that UCLA's team value went up by beating KU.

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Exactly. This accounts for 100% of what confused OP. That performance was very significant.

BUT - is it being given just a little bit TOO much respect?? That's really the question....

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What was significant about it, the 3-4 total prayer 3pters that went in, or the 5-10 layups that KU missed?

Re: Final Four
 

At the last minute, I realized that today is Friday, not Thursday, and as such the Final Four games will be tomorrow. Anyway, here are my bets. (All on Bodog, so I probably could have done better by line-shopping. Whatever.)

Georgetown/Ohio State under 131 (Risk 5.75u to win 5u)
Georgetown vs. Ohio State +1 (Risk 4.4u to win 4u)
UCLA vs. Florida -3.5 (Risk 3u to win 2.85u)
Donk parlay: OSU +1, G'T/OSU under 131, Florida -3.5, UF/UCLA over 130 (Risk 1u to win 12.03u)

Re: Final Four
 

I bet Georgetown at +1 when it opened. Georgetown can run a lot of big bodies at Oden and if he gets in foul trouble (which he is prone too) they will have a lot of difficulty competing. If the line steams to around Ohio St +3 I would consider buying back though.

For the UCLA Florida game I think a the side and total are highly correlated. The line seems solid so I bet UCLA and the under just because I hate Florida and everything about them including the song their band plays. If you like Florida parlay them with the over. If UCLA wins or covers a low scoring game played at their tempo is more likely. A higher scoring game is more likely if Florida covers the spread.

Re: Final Four
 

Town/tOSU total is rising after having settled in at 129.5 for a while. Up to 130.5 and seems to be rising.

Re: Final Four
 

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At the last minute, I realized that today is Friday, not Thursday, and as such the Final Four games will be tomorrow. Anyway, here are my bets. (All on Bodog, so I probably could have done better by line-shopping. Whatever.)

Georgetown/Ohio State under 131 (Risk 5.75u to win 5u)
Georgetown vs. Ohio State +1 (Risk 4.4u to win 4u)
UCLA vs. Florida -3.5 (Risk 3u to win 2.85u)
Donk parlay: OSU +1, G'T/OSU under 131, Florida -3.5, UF/UCLA over 130 (Risk 1u to win 12.03u)

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What was your thinking behind the under in that game. You must be rather confident given that you're betting 5 units. I personally don't see an edge on that bet either way. I can see it I think 66-65 is a very probable score and that, if anything, it may go over if the OSU guards heat up from the perimeter. However, I also see the under hitting if Oden dominates the paint and G'Town can't find a good way to score thus slowing the pace of the game down. So I dunno, I couldn't think of a good bet either way.

Re: Final Four
 

I think the squares that have only watched tournament games (maybe even only watched the G'Town/UNC game) are driving this number way, way higher than it should be. If this was a regular season game, I can't believe it would go off higher than 127 and even at 125, I'd still take the under on it. Here's the heart of my analysis, X-posted from the OSU/G'Town thread:

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The average total for Georgetown over the entire season is 125.8. Ohio State, even with an offense that's slightly better than their defense is a below-average team for overall scoring, due to their slow place. That means that the total will likely be 125 or under. Factor in that Georgetown and OSU both get a lot of points from exploiting mismatches in the low post, and that those mismatches won't be present on Saturday, and I think you have a recipe for a game that's likely to be really low-scoring. If I were to make a prediction for the game, it would be Ohio State 62-58.

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Re: Final Four
 

why the under on Ohio State/G'Town

KenPom predicts 127...enough said

ok, don't blindly follow the stat crunchers and goto the actual match-ups. G'Town plays a hybrid of the Princeton ol' school back door cuts and more modern individual play-making. They are extremely deliberate (last in pace in the entire country...328 out of 328), but very effective. They don't take bad shots. More importantly, they don't rush up and down the court unless it is wide open. If they shoot within the first 15 seconds, it is either a gimme or they failed to execute their sets. So, the Hoyas will look for easy cuts. Those usually aren't very forthcoming from a big11ten defense, especially so in this individual case. With Oden, the perimeter/wing athletes, Hunter, and the 2-3 zone that stymies quick strikes and clogs the middle, these early back cuts will not be open. When they cannot get their cuts, the Hoyas rely on getting the ball to their individually talented studs, Hibbert and Green. Those guys will have a tougher time than normal as there are very few defensive presences like Greg Oden. The guy is a beast. However, if the Hoya guards nail their 3s as Tennessee did or penetrate all over Conley and Co as they abused Lawson in the second half, the Hoyas can put up the points. However, when weighting possible outcomes, I see those scenarios as less likely.

On the other end, tOSU is also quite deliberate. I've thought they've been deliberate to a fault this year, but I was wrong: 15-1 Big11Ten champs, BTT champs, and a final four pretty much respond to any criticism I have of Matta slowing down the offense. tOSU does like to take its time, but presents a wide variety of offensive options. First and foremost, get the ball to Oden. The beauty is that Hibbert's size and talent (haha Dorsey) is something that will bother Oden a little. G'Town is one of the best teams in the country at blocking and altering shots. Second, tOSU can have Conley penetrate and either shoot or kick. G'Town has been awesome all year at both stopping penetration and having a hand in the face of 3 point shooters. The Hoyas hold opponents to 30.3% 3FG%. That is among the top10 in the country. G'Town did beat such 3-point bombing teams as West Virginia (53 pts), Notre Dame (82 pts), and Vandy (65 pts), while losing to Oregon (57 pts). The third option for the Buckeyes is to use some one-on-one talent to create shots, such as Daequan Cook. G'Town's shot blockers and athleticism really make this hard.

Then, we get to the point that neither defense is particularly strong at creating turnovers. Ohio State has also been quite stingy about giving the ball away. This means that you will not see many fast break, open court dunks. This won't be your half-ass rec league type of ball. This should likely be a half court beautiful chess match. I personally cannot wait as that is just the style that midwesterners crave.