Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

If button has QQ-99, we'll likely win the pot ($600) and MP2's final chips ($300). I doubt we'll get another cent from the button - he's too smart for that. Although we might still get sucked out on one of their two-outers, and/or a scare card might come for MP2, and/or MP2 might actually fold his overpair / didn't have one. So let's say this line is around (+$700) in EV if button indeed has 99-QQ.

If button has 88/55, we'll lose our stack almost certainly (-$1000).


So how likely is 99-QQ v. 88/55 ? You'd have to be right about button have 99-QQ 60% of the time to make the times you are set v. set donating correct.

Personally I think button has a set here at least 65% of the time.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Unless of course, we follow line suggestion #1.

Then we only lose $200 to set v. set and we still win a nice pot if button has QQ-99.



I think this mystery has been solved. We should call, check, and fold if button is still interested.


So:

TURN: ($825 in pot), [3c]
Hero checks
MP2 pushes ($300)
Button calls ($300)
Hero folds...


No? Can't we fold comfortably now?

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

why are you looking for an excuse to fold

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
why are you looking for an excuse to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I think villains actions here scream 88/55.

I don't think i'm being results oriented here either. Earlier I analyzed the range that I gave him, and I think he has 88/55 at least half the time, and probably more.


If I call, check the turn, and then button calls MP2's push, then i'm 90% sure he has a higher set. What else would he have? Button is a good player that I respect.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

given how shallow these stacks are, I dont understand why you are fighting so hard to fold.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Keep folding sets, it's +EV in multiway pots.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Well I was hoping that posting this on the high-stakes forum would bring some insight, instead of the standard "never fold a set for a 100BB stack" - i guess it's just easier to live by hard rules than to have to consider each individual situation.

One thing that's definitely not +EV is shoving your whole stack in the middle when you're pretty sure you're beat.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

either you are a troll or u need to learn how to play poker and stop posting here

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Aren't there 3 draws on this board, 34, 64 and 67, can't he also call with that. Can't he also call with 99-AA or even 77 or 66. Is this "good player" only calling PSB from donks with sets if so then it's an easy muck, if not, your getting 2 to 1 on your money that your correct. You can be wrong 66% of the time and it still be 0 EV, I don't think this is an easy muck as you say it nor is the board entirely dry.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

I explained earlier why he wouldn't call with 76 (MP2 doesn't have much behind - so there's not proper odds - plus there could be a checkraise from upfront). Button is too solid to continue with any of these weak draws.

I'm not saying that it's an easy muck. It's incredibly difficult muck, that's why I posted it. I'm also not saying that folding is the right move - as posted above, I think that calling is correct, with the plan to make a tough laydown on the turn if the button is still interested.

[ QUOTE ]
You can be wrong 66% of the time and it still be 0 EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all - you still have two more betting rounds to deal with. If you're right that he doesn't have a set, he won't put another dime in the pot. But if you're wrong he'll get your whole stack. Reverse implied odds.