Re: Does any street make sense?
 

Capt, the question is, what are you trying to accomplish on the river? Earlier in the thread you mentioned possibly folding out the button's king. I just don't think this is a realistic expectation.

You don't 3bet the turn for the same reason you don't raise the flop - no good can come of it. On the turn, I'd say the most likely hand the button has is AQ/AJ, though of course 88, and the remaining king in the deck are also possible. If you 3bet, you put yourself on a range of hands of which KQ exists at the lower end. While you'll now be getting called down by KT, this is true, you're folding out their most likely holdings - aces. Additionally, just calling here will not prevent KT from betting the unseen river.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Capt, the question is, what are you trying to accomplish on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm willing to bet/fold (and I am in this hand), then I think a bet/fold is basically freerolling. By check-calling, button can play optimally against me. He will bet an Ace, he may bet a King, and he will check 88. So I either lose 1 BB or I break-even.

If I bet, I either break-even, lose 1 BB (in the same K/A situations) or I gain some +EV if villain calls with 88 > 0% of the time or folds a K > 0% of the time. So it's higher EV.

Basically, not betting lets opponent play optimally against me. Betting will lose the same amount when behind, but can induce mistakes when ahead or tied.

This is sorta similar to betting like the 3rd/4th nut flush (on a 4-flush board) against a HU opponent on the river OOP. But it's an even better bet because there is pretty much no chance I can induce the button to bluff on the river in this case -- he has a made hand, and we can narrow it down to Ax, Kx, or 88. It's also better than the 4-flush scenario because there's no chance he's going to check a better hand or bet a worse hand when we check in this case.

I dunno, when I write my book "Playing Poker the Pirate way (without the raping and pillaging)" , I'm going to put this hand in the Blimey River quiz and you guys are all going to score a big fat ZERO on the test. Even if you guys are right and I'm wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Results:
<font color="white">UTG folds ATo faceup on the turn. I bet river and button looks disgusted and calls with K5. </font>