Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Why like the Gonzo bet? He's not getting the ball thrown his way much even with Harrison out (Harrison is doubtful this weekend). He had a 7 reception game, a 3 reception game, and the other five have all been under.

I'd rather bet the under here if the line moves to 3 or 3.5.

- C -

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Well I am thinking the Pats want to take away Clark and Wayne(I know easier said than done) and if that is the case, I think Manning has a history of completing passes to whoever you leave open. Obviously this means dump offs to Addai as well, but I think Gonzo gets some love, and the line has moved that direction.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why like the Gonzo bet? He's not getting the ball thrown his way much even with Harrison out (Harrison is doubtful this weekend). He had a 7 reception game, a 3 reception game, and the other five have all been under.

I'd rather bet the under here if the line moves to 3 or 3.5.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking is that NE is gonna double Wayne if Harrison is out, leaving Clark and Gonzo some opportunities. I also think it will be high scoring with Indy throwing the ball often. Whats the line on Mannings completions? 24? I like 1/8 of those going to a starting WR. Of course if Harrison plays this looks much shakier.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that NE is gonna double Wayne if Harrison is out

[/ QUOTE ]

Who hasn't tried to do this already?

- C -

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that NE is gonna double Wayne if Harrison is out

[/ QUOTE ]

Who hasn't tried to do this already?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

Who has tried that is 8-0?

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that NE is gonna double Wayne if Harrison is out

[/ QUOTE ]

Who hasn't tried to do this already?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

Who has tried that is 8-0?

[/ QUOTE ]

So your argument is that the 8-0 team can do what every other team hasn't done and shut down the big weapons, but can't do what every other team has done and can't shut down the rookie 4th option?

- C -

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Tom Brady u3.5 TD passes is at -190 haha

Over is at +145. Anyone have a guess as to when that becomes +EV?

this is on bodog btw

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that NE is gonna double Wayne if Harrison is out

[/ QUOTE ]

Who hasn't tried to do this already?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

Who has tried that is 8-0?

[/ QUOTE ]

So your argument is that the 8-0 team can do what every other team hasn't done and shut down the big weapons, but can't do what every other team has done and can't shut down the rookie 4th option?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that is not my argument.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tom Brady u3.5 TD passes is at -190 haha

Over is at +145. Anyone have a guess as to when that becomes +EV?

this is on bodog btw

[/ QUOTE ]

um I think the under is +EV at -190.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Bodog has put up more props. I have some additional picks:

Larry Fitzgerald under 93.5 receiving yards at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). This line seems 10 to 15 yards too high. I can see him racking up yards only through a ton of receptions due to the Tampa 2. His big numbers in recent weeks have come from at least one long reception each game, which seems less likely to happen against the Bucs. Plus, Boldin's re-emergence means fewer targets.

Bobby Wade under 48.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). He's questionable to play, and has surpassed this figure only twice so far. San Diego figures to own the ball, although I can imagine Wade covering through garbage time production if the Chargers jump to a huge lead (which is why this is only a 1-unit bet). Then again, if the game reaches that point, the Vikings may take him out to prevent further injury.