Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

Don't forget who (so far) would win tiebreakers, which complicates things.

DET: beat MIN, CHI (2x); lost to NYG, ARI, WAS, PHI; 4-5 NFC record

NO: has not lost or beaten any WC contender; 4-3 NFC record

ARI: beat DET; lost to WAS; 3-5 NFC record

MIN: beat CHI; lost to DET, PHI; 3-5 NFC record

WAS: beat ARI, DET; split with PHI; 3-5 NFC record

CHI: beat PHI; lost to DET (2x), MIN; 2-5 NFC record

PHI: beat DET, MIN; lost to CHI; split with WAS; 3-5 NFC record

Detroit is in good shape against its divisional foes, but in horrible shape against pretty much everyone else. They can't afford to end up tied with anyone except Chicago and (probably) Minnesota.

The rest is pretty much a cluster [censored] and will play itself out, as most of the teams play each other.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Cluster[censored]
 

Vikings then Saints looks about right. I really wanted to argue w/ the Saints b/c I think they suck, but the schedule is just too easy.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

Giants have 71.6%
Vikes have 34.5%
Saints have 26.1%
Redksins have 20.1%
Eagles have 18.3%
Cards have 15.4%
Lions have 10.5%
Bears have 7.2%

That is chance at any spot, not specifically the wildcard.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

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If you're serious about this, I'll take you up on that.

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you realize i mean 3 dollars right? i am no sports handicapper

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billnye is trying to screw me over.

FO has Minn at 34.5% and NO at 26%, so I'm fairly confident I would be on the +EV side of that bet. Just too many teams to assume one of two of them will take the last spot that often.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

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Arizona has lost two games to SF they will not make the playoffs.

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And they beat Seattle and Pittsburgh. Unless there's a new rule that says anyone who loses to SF twice can't make the playoffs, something I would support 100%

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Ya I was too lazy to write something up, I just think they have a pretty tough schedule and they are one of the worst teams. The only real edge they have is if they can win @Seattle they are back in the divisional race somewhat.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

With Eric Green and Adrian Wilson placed on the IR this week, you can knock AZ down to about 5%.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

Well, they'll be pretty solid favorites in their last two games, home against Atlanta and St. Louis. If they handle their business (you know, like they did with SF), it could possibly only take one win against the other teams, which if good Arizona shows up (they are the streakiest team according to DVOA), they could definitely pull off one of those games.

I definitely think they'll finish ahead of Chicago. Chicago is the worst team out of that bunch and has a tough schedule to boot.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Cluster[censored]
 

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I'm assuming that the Cowboys, Seahawks, Packers, Bucs and Giants all make the playoffs. I'm also assuming this will get bumped mercilessly when one of those teams chokes, but w/e.


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preemptive "the Giants will choke because they're not good to begin with" post.

does 9-7 get them in? because the rest of the schedule looks like 2 to 3 wins max.