Re: Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Al,

So cause Mike Caro doesn't mention a stop loss point, you can't do it?

For myself, poker is a tough game.. I always considered my biggest strength be game selection.. However, I'm starting to second guess that. Sometimes you can be in a game that's very loose aggressive, and seems like people are trying to give their money away, but the reality is that these games aren't that easy. Setting something like a stop loss might help you to step away from a game, and think about it with a clear head?

As for the tilt:

Now, you describe that u lost about 150 BB's in a session.. Let's assume your earn rate is 2 BB's per hour.. (A pretty good rate) This means you're gonna have to play about 75 hours to get this back.. Or, in other words, you've just thrown 75 hours down the drain... And this doesn't bother you? This doesn't affect your decision making?

[/ QUOTE ]

The stop loss concept is flawed and is borrowed from the stock market which is hardly a science. I make no empty appeal to authority, Mike's list was very comprehensive but to give just one reason: the game could just be a bad game the opposition too good. If that was the case I would have got up and found another game. I have done that and there are players I would not play with because either they are better than I or the positive expected value I would have against them would be so small as to not make it worth the trouble. My ego is not a problem.

As for tilt, how many times must I say? I did not tilt: look at the percentage of hands I played.

You are wrong about it taking 75 hours to win back the money. I lost big and I will have sessions that I win that big in and I have had in the past. Variance was the cause and variance swings both ways just like some people!

Re: Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!
 

Stop loss is only useful if your own ability to evaluate the game you are in is limited. For someone who has the discipline to use stop loss but not the ability to see whether a particular game is too tough for them, it could be useful. But it seems to me that evaluating the toughness of a game is not that hard, so I would agree with OP that stop loss doesn't make sense for most players.

Re: Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"The stats show that I did not win my fair share of hands. I am shy 2.5 percentage points in wins which is 20% of what I can legitimately expect at an eight player table (12.5% mathematically expected win rate). "

Al, can u explain that a little more...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hiya southerndog,

Simply put, at an eight player table you should be winning one hand in eight, that is, you should win 12.5% of your hands (100/8=12.5); at a ten player table you should be winning one hand in ten, that is, you should win 10% of your hands (100/10=10); in a heads up game you should be winning one hand in two, that is you should win 50% of your hands (100/2=50). All this somewhat rudimentary maths is based on the assumption that the cards allow you to do this. The point I am making is that I was playing in a eight player game but winning as if I was playing in a ten player game. If I had been winning as if it was heads up I would be reporting a huge upswing to you all (but I am not vain so would not [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]). Conclusion: I was card dead.

I hope this has clarified the point but more than willing to post again about it if need be, just ask...

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember, a player that plays a tight style should expect to win less than 1/N of the time, where N is the number of players at the table (and looser players will win more). If you are a good TAG, you might only win 1/10 or 1/12 of the pots at a 8-player table, but you should win more than your "fair share" of big pots and you won't be bleeding away chips on pots you have no business being in. A measure like BB/hr or BB/100 (and standard deviation as well) is a lot more useful than "I only won 9.2% of the pots".

This can be even more pronounced in a PL/NL game, as a loose maniacial player can win tons of small pots and end up a big loser when they lose monster pots to tighter players.

Re: Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!
 

I'm not really sure what the point of your post is, then?

Is the point of your post "I just got smoked and I'm takin' it like a man" or was it "I just got smoked, looking for suggestions.."? This is a serious question.

As other's have alluded to, TILT is not a simple matter of playing like a maniac. It's a clouding of the mind.. Calling down hands when you know you're beat. Thinking you're always getting bluffed. . It comes in different forms for different players. Basically it just means not playing your A game. if you didn't tilt, then that's great.. The fact that you mentioned that you wanted to move up and play higher suggests otherwise..

If you were in a scenario that did not involve psychology and emotions, stop loss does not make sense. But, in a scenario where your judgement may be clouded, it is not such a bad idea. For example, if we were flipping coins where u had a .01% edge on even $$ bets, stop loss does not make sense... But in poker, things like fatigue, frustration, boredome, and confusion set in. I offered up a suggestion on something that I have been thinking about.

And YOU are wrong about the winning the $$ back.. Your expected win rate is your expected win rate.. if you make $4 /hour playing 1/2, expect it to take 75 hours to make your 300$ back. It won't take exactly that long.. it could take longer.. but on average, that's your average.. Otherwise, you don't have an hourly rate...

the fact that you think you're supposed to be winning 1/n share of hands despite the fact that you're folding 80% of your hands shows you have some to learn.

Re: Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!
 

Try losing 13 rolled hands in a row that will definately shake you cofidence. I have quit stud for a while because of the ridiculous play at 1-2 where I had always done well. Now just playing MTT holdem.

Re: Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Stop loss is only useful if your own ability to evaluate the game you are in is limited. For someone who has the discipline to use stop loss but not the ability to see whether a particular game is too tough for them, it could be useful. But it seems to me that evaluating the toughness of a game is not that hard, so I would agree with OP that stop loss doesn't make sense for most players.

[/ QUOTE ]

This I don't disagree with..

However, consider the following conversation:

A: "I stop if I lose 100 BB's in a day.. at this point I've lost 4 buy ins and it figures to not be my day.."

B: "Oh man, that's the stupidest thing i've ever heard, If you're +EV, then you gotta hang around and grind it out.."

or

A: "I stop if I lose 100 BB's in a day.. at this point I've lost 4 buy ins and it figures to not be my day.."

C: "Seems reasonable to step back and try again another day, the table will be there tomorrow. Start over fresh again."

Do u think C is a fool?


Look, I'm not saying stop loss after 10bb's or something.. But if you're having a miserable day, like -100BB's or something, what's wrong with pulling the plug and throwing down a beer?

Re: Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!
 

There's nothing *wrong* with it; you're trying to flip this around and make it sound like you have an obligation to keep playing. The point is that if your play and game evaluation are otherwise good there is no additional value to be gained by having a stop-loss.
There could theoretically be value for people who play more badly as time goes on, or who go on tilt after losing, or who can't tell when a game is too tough for them, or who can't resist the temptation to go *up* rather than down limits to try and get unstuck. But those folks are unlikely to have the discipline to abide by the stop-loss anyway, which is why I find the whole concept dubious.

Re: Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!
 

Given the ante structure of the game, you may be playing too tightly to optimize your win rates. Starting with a hand like (33)T or (J4)4 or (78)9 is probably correct if you can limp. Continuing with minor improvement is probably also correct -- hands like (2h4h)7h2c or (78)95 are often playable for one bet on fourth. Another leak can be folding when you "know" you're beat -- I've hammered this one before, but it bears repeating that many low limit players will hammer away with weird hands and calling down is often profitable, even though the opponent's play makes no sense.

Also, variance is huge. We've all been there. It's not just weird hands, either. Some days, you will catch a flush and your opponent will make a higher one. Some days you will be rolled and run into a draw that gets there.

Re: Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really sure what the point of your post is, then?

Is the point of your post "I just got smoked and I'm takin' it like a man" or was it "I just got smoked, looking for suggestions.."? This is a serious question.

As other's have alluded to, TILT is not a simple matter of playing like a maniac. It's a clouding of the mind.. Calling down hands when you know you're beat. Thinking you're always getting bluffed. . It comes in different forms for different players. Basically it just means not playing your A game. if you didn't tilt, then that's great.. The fact that you mentioned that you wanted to move up and play higher suggests otherwise..

If you were in a scenario that did not involve psychology and emotions, stop loss does not make sense. But, in a scenario where your judgement may be clouded, it is not such a bad idea. For example, if we were flipping coins where u had a .01% edge on even $$ bets, stop loss does not make sense... But in poker, things like fatigue, frustration, boredome, and confusion set in. I offered up a suggestion on something that I have been thinking about.

And YOU are wrong about the winning the $$ back.. Your expected win rate is your expected win rate.. if you make $4 /hour playing 1/2, expect it to take 75 hours to make your 300$ back. It won't take exactly that long.. it could take longer.. but on average, that's your average.. Otherwise, you don't have an hourly rate...

the fact that you think you're supposed to be winning 1/n share of hands despite the fact that you're folding 80% of your hands shows you have some to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have plenty to learn but I fear you are not the one to teach me. You have plenty to learn but I fear you are too myopic to recognise that. You have accused me of tilting, I have said I did not. Produce your evidence or I will sue you for defamation.

Oh by the way, hourly rate is a median and famously medians do not exist. Sometimes you win $1 over a session sometimes $444 you average it out and you get your median which in this case is one's hourly rate.

Yes, I am playing a touch bigger but I am well within my bankroll for I while I even played a lot smaller.

Are you one of these people who cannot abide disagreement and think you are always right Mr Stop Loss.

Re: Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!
 

Everyone tilts. This includes you.