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-   -   ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007 (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=327473)

crockpot 02-09-2007 04:24 PM

Re: ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007
 
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Just read up on BP, Yahoo, ESPN etc. Keep on top of position battles, bench battles, pen depth, 6th starters etc. In AL only you have to get real specific as its obviously not as deep as Mixed. Just keep up on your reading and you should be ok.

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I should have explained further. Its a very tough league. If I only kept up on my reading I would get killed every year. Most know how many RBIs they need to win a category, have their projections, and bid to get that number, etc.
While the major league pool is smaller, there is a lot of value in finding the stud for next year, thus knowing the minor leagues well is important.

I am asking what seperates the best fantasy players from just the good.

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some examples: valuing players correctly (even with perfect projections), understanding auction dynamics, knowing your opponents' tendencies and weaknesses, being able to understand how statistics translate into category points (especially in the middle of the season), adjusting for dynamic position scarcity in the middle of your draft, being able to separate breakouts from flukes based on component numbers.

all the stuff you listed is still important, like being able to play a tight-aggressive winning style that's enough to beat most games, but not the tough ones. this is just the equivalent of adding in another 5% of hands preflop and mixing up your play well.

TheRover 02-09-2007 04:34 PM

Re: ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007
 
OK, here's a complicated one. Keeper league, 10 teams. Each club has a minor league team so we have over 50 players owned during the season. Keep 20 players from last year.

Stats: R H HR RBI SB BB K TB AVG OBP SLG OPS W SV HR BB K GIDP TB ERA WHIP K/BB K/9

Positions are something like: C, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, Util. might be forgetting one.

yeah it's overkill, but it's a very active league and I like the people involved. I also like that it gives a reason to know about basically every player in MLB and any notable minor leaguer.

What's the best strategy for a league like this? Here's who I've kept for next year, how's it look:

J. Mauer
J. Giambi
Mi. Cabrera
M. Tejada
H. Kendrick
B. Bonds
I. Suzuki
B. Hawpe
N. Johnson
R. Zimmerman
M. Teahen
D. Pedroia
C. Carpenter
R. Clemens
Jer. Weaver
A. Wainwright
J. Broxton
B. Sheets
R. Hill
M. Pelfrey

and FWIW I dropped these guys:

B. Penny
Ra. Johnson
B. McCarthy
D. Reyes
Y. Bazardo
C. Hansen
J. Vargas
R. Pinto
Y. Petit
P. Maholm
C. James
E. González
Z. Duke
J. Shields
B. Bannister
O. Hernández
D. Bush
S. Marshall
M. DeRosa
L. Scott
M. Alou
C. Patterson
W. Betemit
R. Langerhans
C. Snelling
J. Hardy
B. Mueller
K. Johnson
Ju. Huber
J. Loney
R. Martin
J. Botts
M. Bourn
J. Baker
M. Montero

edit: this was done right after the season ended or i would've kept RJ

crockpot 02-09-2007 04:35 PM

Re: ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007
 
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Just a general question.

The way my league is set up is completely retarded. I just became commish this year and have been pushing for changes but I've only successfully made one change that would make this league a bit more normal.

9 offensive positions (C, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, 2 of, 2 ut)
6 pitchers (2 sp, 2 rp, 2 p)

8 X 6 scoring system

offense- runs, 2b, 3b, hr, rbi, steals, avg, k (i just got singles eliminated)
pitching- wins, era, whip, k, sv, cg

What should my draft strategy be? Because of the increased attention on offense what type of players should I look for? This is most likely an auction draft, so I can basically mold my team to my desires.

Should be a different strategy than a 5X5 league, just need some specifics. I won this league last year, so I got down the basics, just wanna know what others would do...

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egad, this setup is awful.

the first thing to remember in any weird league is that your opponents generally won't know how to adjust. they may come to the draft with a sheet of auction values for 5x5 leagues. most likely they will fail to adjust enough; occasionally they will overreact with a freak player like carl crawford who dominates one of the new categories.

generally speaking, here's what's going on:

- adding more hitting categories severely tips the scales in favor of buying hitters, because they have more impact on the standings.
- having more hitters than pitchers reduces the replacement level but also waters down the effect of each individual hitter. this generally favors pitchers by a little, but not nearly enough to compensate for the first factor.
- obviously, the new categories are going to affect the brand of hitter you take. specifically, 'three true outcomes' players like adam dunn are worth much, much less in these leagues, while contact hitters who can spray the ball all over the field and take extra bases, like joe mauer and juan pierre, become bigger studs than usual.

hopefully, you will adjust and your opponents will not.

4 High 02-09-2007 04:37 PM

Re: ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007
 
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Bobby Abreu (NYY - OF)
Josh Barfield (Cle - 2B)
Jason Bay (Pit - OF)
Carl Crawford (TB - OF)
Chone Figgins (LAA - 2B,3B,OF)
Adrián González (SD - 1B)
Víctor Martínez (Cle - C,1B)
David Ortiz (Bos - 1B)
Édgar Rentería (Atl - SS)
José Reyes (NYM - SS)
Mark Teixeira (Tex - 1B)
Chad Tracy (Ari - 1B,3B,OF)
Rickie Weeks (Mil - 2B)
David Wright (NYM - 3B)

Pitching

Boof Bonser (Min - SP)
Zach Duke (Pit - SP)
Roy Halladay (Tor - SP)
Scott Olsen (Fla - SP)
Roy Oswalt (Hou - SP)
Chris Ray (Bal - RP)
B.J. Ryan (Tor - RP)
Takashi Saito (LAD - RP)
Ben Sheets (Mil - SP)
José Valverde (Ari - RP)
Chris Young (SD - SP)

Keep 12. Who should i be keeping? 10 or so are obvious, the rest are not.

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bay, crawford, ortiz, wright, teixeira, reyes, oswalt, sheets, ryan, halladay, figgins, vmart. you may want to keep weeks over figgins for the future if you're confident with your margin of victory as is.

i feel sorry for the rest of your league, unless it's a 5-teamer or something, because you're going to destroy them.

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10 Teams. Yea ive been in the final 2 years in a row and won last year. If i draft as well as i usually do its over.

I was leaning toward keeping Ryan but i wasnt sure if is pre 13th round material. Figgins Vs. Weeks is going to be the hard choice.

crockpot 02-09-2007 04:51 PM

Re: ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007
 
[ QUOTE ]
OK, here's a complicated one. Keeper league, 10 teams. Each club has a minor league team so we have over 50 players owned during the season. Keep 20 players from last year.

Stats: R H HR RBI SB BB K TB AVG OBP SLG OPS W SV HR BB K GIDP TB ERA WHIP K/BB K/9

Positions are something like: C, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, Util. might be forgetting one.

yeah it's overkill, but it's a very active league and I like the people involved. I also like that it gives a reason to know about basically every player in MLB and any notable minor leaguer.


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i can't comment on the keepers. it's just too far removed from what i'm used to.

in general, the most important thing to notice is that in a full 7 of 11 pitching categories, it hurts, rather than helps, to tack on additional mediocre innings. if your offense is good enough, you could theoretically win this league with just one stud middle reliever on your staff, unless there's an innings minimum.

furthermore, of the positive pitching counting stats, two are team-dependent, and one is situation-dependent. only one (K) is really purely in the pitcher's control.

since there are so many more positive hitting categories than pitching ones, you should look to accumulate an offense of studs, and worry a lot less about your pitching staff.

in other words, stock up on hitters and relievers with good skills and avoid innings eaters. i'd shop carpenter and weaver for some hitters of comparable value in a standard league.

TheRover 02-09-2007 04:56 PM

Re: ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007
 
yeah, that's what I've been trying. there is a league minimum, though. I'm trying to get some stats removed...

lowroller 02-09-2007 05:06 PM

Re: ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007
 
Who has the best strategy/information during the season (ie. "Football Guys" for baseball)?

Can be paid or free.

crockpot 02-09-2007 05:10 PM

Re: ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007
 
[ QUOTE ]
Who has the best strategy/information during the season (ie. "Football Guys" for baseball)?

Can be paid or free.

[/ QUOTE ]

i like baseballHQ for recommendations. rotowire is good for transactions and news.

rotopass.com has these and more for one price. i'm not familiar with a couple of their sites, but if you have the money to spend, it's a decent option.

Caldarooni 02-09-2007 06:21 PM

Re: ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007
 
Where would I find the most comprehensive review of players in the minors?

crockpot 02-09-2007 06:24 PM

Re: ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007
 
[ QUOTE ]
Where would I find the most comprehensive review of players in the minors?

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are you looking for long-term or short-term projections? i think pecota is the best place to look for 2007. firstinning.com isn't bad but they have only a few 2007 projections up right now. it looks like more will be arriving with the new hardball times baseball preview book.

long-term, look to baseball america, five-year pecota projections, john sickels. all good stuff.


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