Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

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Very easy check. Villain could easily have a low flush and is check/calling. When last to act on the river, don't bet with a medium strength hand.

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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

How about AQ, A9, KK, or AA?

And why wouldn't he bet a made hand here?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Checking a made flush happens a lot, way more than you would expect. They can't believe how lucky they got when it comes, and the slow-play instinct which is so finely tuned with them kicks in, so they check (believing it is the only way to double up).

Once again, not saying that it is a flush, but dont discount it. You see players checking rivered flushes playing limit, where it makes even less sense.

Im in the check behind camp. They arent calling a large bet here without a very specific group of hands (AA,KK, AQ) that we are beating. I think you will see a checked flush (or str8) more often than a calling hand we beat

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I'm with GrandGNU on this; I think he's putting Strassa on overcards. He sees the flop bet as a straightforward CB on a missed flop, whereas he actually caught a bit of it; I'm thinking suited connectors 78 thru to JQ. The turn check means he either hit or, more likely, he's worried Strassa hit. The call tends to confirm this, I think he'd raise if he had the Q (and wouldn't have CRed the flop) - I believe he wants a cheap showdown.

If he hit his flush wouldn't he value bet it? Strassa hasn't played as if he's on that draw. I value bet 600 and hope he feels he has to call with Ah9nh/87/98/9T.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

It is rare for opponents to attempt the check-raise on the river with a flush in online no-limit tournaments, so there are many hands that would pay off. I think a bet of 750 is optimal to get the max out of a 9 which is villain's most likely hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

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It is rare for opponents to attempt the check-raise on the river with a flush in online no-limit tournaments, so there are many hands that would pay off. I think a bet of 750 is optimal to get the max out of a 9 which is villain's most likely hand.

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You don't think anyone would check a flush with 2h when there are 4 hearts on the board?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

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It is rare for opponents to attempt the check-raise on the river with a flush in online no-limit tournaments, so there are many hands that would pay off. I think a bet of 750 is optimal to get the max out of a 9 which is villain's most likely hand.

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You don't think anyone would check a flush with 2h when there are 4 hearts on the board?

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There are 3 hearts on this board, if there were 4 I'd push because there's a good chance I can get a better hand to fold.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I can't HELP but bet at this. 700 sounds about right. I have him on KQ, AQ, JQ, 89-9A, Q9, a bunch of hands that don't call, and a couple hands that bluff big at me. And 8% chance of a flush, which will rise to a 40% chance if I am check/raised.

Yeah, I bet. and Yeah I call a push.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I still don't like betting out here. The pot is 1800 or so, and we can check for FREE and with 100% certainty see if we won.

What is Villian calling a 500+ chip bet on the turn with? A draw? A made hand? A pair? He doesn't have odds to call unless he's got a made hand. And if he does have a made hand, then he should have raised with his straight just in case we're on the nut flush draw.

His play is extremely confusing, we still have failed to accurately figure out his holding, and his bizzare play has failed to define it for us.

So yes, betting 500 or something as a value bet might be a good move. It is quite possible we have this hand won and Villian will pay us off.

But, there's 1800 in the pot, and we can find out without any additional risk if we've won or not. Or, we can go and bet between 500-700 like some of you are suggesting, which is essentially pot-commiting us for our remaining stack.

So to win 500-700 chips, you're actually risking your remaining 1600+ chips and your entire tournament. I just don't feel confident enough (since Villian hasn't defined his hand adequately) to make that "value" bet.

Perhaps that is what separates me from the true pro's. I'm not willing to take those type of risks. But I think it's a -EV bet given the potential for loss, it's just uneccessary. I still advocate the check behind.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Well I think i learned something from this thread. Just because a normal player won't pay off on this river very often, this player may. The more I think about it the more I like betting around 600. Although I'd like to hear some justification for calling a push. Say you bet 600 into the 1800 chip pot, and he pushes, you then need to call 1000 to win 5000. I can't imagine you're good more than 20% of the time here, and calling seems like chip spewing to me.