Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pretty solid list. The only two teams I *might* think about switching up would be Detroit and Washington.

[/ QUOTE ]

?? Washington spanked Detroit 34-3. Yeah I realize it's projective but the Redskins hold the tiebreaker while the Lions have a bitch of a schedule.

[/ QUOTE ]

My reasoning behind this is that I believe the Lions will finish 9-7 while the Redskins will finish 8-8. Obviously, one game would change this easily, which is why I said *might* consider switching it up. In either case, it's really close and I would not argue heavily for it to be either way.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I only looked through their rating system briefly, but it looks like it takes the whole season into account? That might work for baseball, but I bet it is way less predictive in football where injuries and where momentum/streaks are more prevalent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Injuries are a real problem for outsiders, because they've never figured out a way to effectively include them in the system. Like any statistic, it should be used as a general guide, not a steadfast rule. But if it says the Eagles are 18% to make the playoffs, then it's apparent that saying 50% is being way too optimistic.

And I'm not buying the momentum thing at all. I think momentum is the same type of thing as clutch: something that's often talked about as important but doesn't actually exist.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, the most predictive version of their statistic does not take into account the whole season. In fact, I think it eventually ignores the first few weeks.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the most predictive version of their statistic does not take into account the whole season. In fact, I think it eventually ignores the first few weeks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Weighted DVOA, which is what the Playoff Odds Report uses.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
GB
Dallas
TB
Seattle
NYG
PHL
Zona
Was
Detroit
NO
everyone else

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahha you think GB beats Dallas ? Well I guess we're about to find out. But ahahhahaha.

[/ QUOTE ]


AHAHAHAHAHAHA LOL ROFLMAOSKATES. bUT AHAHAHAHAHAHA GIMME 3-1 on GB for $1000?

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
GB
Dallas
TB
Seattle
NYG
PHL
Zona
Was
Detroit
NO
everyone else

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahha you think GB beats Dallas ? Well I guess we're about to find out. But ahahhahaha.

[/ QUOTE ]


AHAHAHAHAHAHA LOL ROFLMAOSKATES. bUT AHAHAHAHAHAHA GIMME 3-1 on GB for $1000?

[/ QUOTE ]

surely you're smarter than this.

how big a favorite will dallas be next week - 4-6 points?

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
 

Najdor,

Not a sports better eh?

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
 

[ QUOTE ]

surely you're smarter than this.

how big a favorite will dallas be next week - 4-6 points?

[/ QUOTE ]

5-7 probably

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Najdor,

Not a sports better eh?

[/ QUOTE ]
Apologies if this is a level, but I'm pretty sure he makes a living (or used to) sports betting.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
 

[ QUOTE ]
FO Playoff Odds Report

Playoff Chances

New York - 86%
Arizona - 54%
Washington - 25%
Philadelphia - 18%
Detroit - 14%
New Orleans - 9%

[/ QUOTE ]
Looks very accurate imo. If Washington wins at Tampa this week I think that they can pull it off though. Either way, pretty crazy, Zona in the playoffs for the first time in god knows who long, or 3 NFC East teams in the playoffs.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 NFC East teams in the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

this happened last season.