Re: $10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge
 

Fiasco, please PLEASE bet it. I want it on this, no way your true roi is over 20%.

Re: $10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge
 

http://media.unessa.net/kuvat/flickr...57bc1cb55d.jpg

Re: $10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge
 

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But yeah, i recognize that 1000 isnt a great number either. You still havent answered my question of how many you think is a significant sample.

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It is probably in the range of 5-10K.

Re: $10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge
 

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You still havent answered my question of how many you think is a significant sample.

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(ZOMG INCOMING SPACEGRAVY REFERENCE)

He won 25k at the 60s in like 3 weeks and broke even over a 2k stretch of games. I'd say alot more than 1000 for a reasonable sample size.

Re: $10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge
 

I think by 2k you have a good idea of where your true roi is.. I've got around 6k, and my overall roi still fluctuates a couple % when I go through good and bad streaks.

Re: $10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge
 

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It's impossible to be > 20% in the 16s imho

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Well its clearly not impossible as Im doing it.

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You haven't even played 500 tournies.
[censored] artard.

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speaking of retard, this is a very stupid line of thinking. Who the heck is going to continue at a level that theyre beating for over 20% ROI for 2000 SNGs? (or whatever sample size makes you happy, maybe 5000).

If you want to put some money up on my ability to maintain a 20% ROI over a certain number of $16 SNGs im willing to do that.

I love how regulars here turn into old coots when they here about a small sample size. "500?!! Why I remember once back in 1923, spacegravy himself had a losing period much longer than 500, clearly your results are meaningless son."

So do enlighten me, at what point do my results become meaningfull?

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How's a $500 even money bet that you can't run at >20% ROI in the Stars $16 NLH 9-man SnGs for the first 1000 you play, starting Dec 1st?

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I would make adjustments to this bet. Either Id need much better odds (because conventional wisdom and everybody on here seem to think that this is undoable) or Id want to keep my results so far (which is what I was suggesting at first).

My counter offer is an even money bet that I can finish my first 1000 $16s (starting a couple weeks ago when I started playing them) with an ROI of 20% or greater.

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So you concede that 20% isn't probable for you?

Re: $10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge
 

Why is everyone hating on Fiasco? Yes, it is a small sample size. But, so what. Hey, damn nice job, Fiasco.

Re: $10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge
 

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But yeah, i recognize that 1000 isnt a great number either. You still havent answered my question of how many you think is a significant sample.

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It is probably in the range of 5-10K.

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Ah, I see. So if I were to run at a -20% ROI over say, 2000 tourneys, I shouldnt worry about it because its nowhere near a significant sample size. After all, everyone has downswings. This is the advice you would give?

Re: $10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge
 

Obviously there is no true roi since your game and the skill of the field constantly changes.
Why even bother about this stuff.
Just play your best and try to learn, that's all you can do.

Re: $10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge
 

He's played 435 16s @ about 33%