Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

wow, another ft and chip leader in another! You can do it!!!

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

I have seen all 3 of your final tables and you spew way too much imo.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have seen all 3 of your final tables and you spew way too much imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yet again I'm going to say this to a post that is very blunt but has no content...

"logic? reasoning? examples?"

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

I see your at my deep stack table, did u give up on the 180's?

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Poker Stars, $4 + $0.40 NL Hold'em Tournament, 1,000/2,000 Blinds, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: 65,236
UTG: 63,774
Hero (CO): 38,420
BTN: 22,268
SB: 80,302

Pre-Flop: (4,000) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to 6,000</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to 16,000</font>, BB folds, Hero calls 10,000

Flop: (35,000) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 22,220 and is All-In</font>, SB calls 22,220

Turn: (79,440) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (79,440) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 79,440 Pot
Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a pair of Sixes) and LOST (-38,420 NET)
SB showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (two pair, Jacks and Sixes) and WON 79,440 (+41,020 NET)

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

ul 5-handed KQ vs KJ. How many have you played now?

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Poker Stars, $4 + $0.40 NL Hold'em Tournament, 1,000/2,000 Blinds, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: 65,236
UTG: 63,774
Hero (CO): 38,420
BTN: 22,268
SB: 80,302

Pre-Flop: (4,000) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to 6,000</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to 16,000</font>, BB folds, Hero calls 10,000

Flop: (35,000) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 22,220 and is All-In</font>, SB calls 22,220

Turn: (79,440) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (79,440) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 79,440 Pot
Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a pair of Sixes) and LOST (-38,420 NET)
SB showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (two pair, Jacks and Sixes) and WON 79,440 (+41,020 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont understand the flat call.

crazy challenge though man GL

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see your at my deep stack table, did u give up on the 180's?

[/ QUOTE ]

No I just added that in for flavor because I was going to be putting in a long enough session to justify playing it

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
i dont understand the flat call.

crazy challenge though man GL

[/ QUOTE ]

In hindsight the flat call was really bad because he had been playing back at me pretty lightly (and I had been raising a lot of pots so he was correct to be doing so). I decided to peel a flop for another 10k leaving myself 22k behind to see what happens where I could re-evaluate on the flop. I correctly identified his check as weakness and we got hte chips in.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i dont understand the flat call.

crazy challenge though man GL

[/ QUOTE ]

In hindsight the flat call was really bad because he had been playing back at me pretty lightly (and I had been raising a lot of pots so he was correct to be doing so). I decided to peel a flop for another 10k leaving myself 22k behind to see what happens where I could re-evaluate on the flop. I correctly identified his check as weakness and we got hte chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey man i understand. sometimes in the heat of the moment you can freeze up and not make the "optimal" play everytime. unlucky on after the flop tho.

seriously though, fk 4/180s. GL

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

over/under on how much he is +/- for the day?

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

In that KQ hand I check flop and shove the turn if checked to rather than shove the flop.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

+$70 on the day so far plus I'm in 8 more 180mans and a 20+2 deep stack... but I odnt have a good stack in any of these tournaments so I dont expect to do well... just got a 2nd place after losing a monster pot with what I thought was one of the bluffs I've ever made but I jsut got called by 33 for no reason... if someone can find the hand history I'd love for it to get posted on here but I have too many tables going to find it right now.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Poker Stars, $4 + $0.40 NL Hold'em Tournament, 1,500/3,000 Blinds, 3 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: 138,100
Hero (BB): 105,904
BTN: 25,996

Pre-Flop: (5,400) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to 9,000</font>, Hero calls 6,000

Flop: (18,900) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets 12,000</font>, Hero calls 12,000

Turn: (42,900) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 15,000</font>, SB calls 15,000

River: (72,900) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 35,000</font>, SB calls 35,000

Results: 142,900 Pot
SB showed 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Eights and Threes) and WON 142,900 (+71,600 NET)
Hero showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a pair of Eights) and LOST (-71,300 NET)

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Bet more on turn if you want to bluff at it.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet more on turn if you want to bluff at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

my exact thoughts

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet more on turn if you want to bluff at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

whats the right bet? 25k? more?

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Poker Stars, $4 + $0.40 NL Hold'em Tournament, 1,500/3,000 Blinds, 3 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: 138,100
Hero (BB): 105,904
BTN: 25,996

Pre-Flop: (5,400) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to 9,000</font>, Hero calls 6,000

Flop: (18,900) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets 12,000</font>, Hero calls 12,000

Turn: (42,900) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 15,000</font>, SB calls 15,000

River: (72,900) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 35,000</font>, SB calls 35,000

Results: 142,900 Pot
SB showed 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Eights and Threes) and WON 142,900 (+71,600 NET)
Hero showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a pair of Eights) and LOST (-71,300 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, considering stack sizes, fold pf I think. I'll shove a solid range over his raise, but Im not going to be tricky post flop even with position, given BTN's stack sizes.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Are you sleeping or playing until you win one?

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you sleeping or playing until you win one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the goal was to play until I won one without sleeping or not joining one that launches... but they're really not launching very fast at this hour and the next two days I'm goign to spend grinding into a $650 Pro Bounty tournament in Sarasota so I dunno if its possible for me to do it tonight [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] If I had action on this then I would def not be sleeping but I don't so I can just try this again next Tuesday.

EDIT: My best shot might be the one I just cashed in... 6/18 right now

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Sign bubbled antoher FT 88&lt;99

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Well I unregistered for the 180man that is pretty close to filling up because it has been 45 minutes since hte last one went off so I'm going to call it a failure of a night (even though I'm up $70 and still playing in three tournaments)

This will resume next Tuesday and I will play from Tuesday until Thursday even if I dont have to sleep... I'll be taking action on it so if anyones interested in laying odds I'll be listening

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Poker Stars, $4 + $0.40 NL Hold'em Tournament, 50/100 Blinds, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: 3,945
BTN: 1,050
SB: 5,342
BB: 2,260
UTG: 5,408
Hero (UTG+1): 1,355
MP1: 3,392
MP2: 1,857

Pre-Flop: (150) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG+1)
UTG calls 100, <font color="red">Hero raises to 300</font>, 2 folds, CO calls 300, 3 folds, UTG calls 200

Flop: (1,050) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 1,055 and is All-In</font>, CO folds, UTG calls 1,055

Turn: (3,160) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (3,160) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 3,160 Pot
UTG showed 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a flush, Queen high) and WON 3,160 (+1,805 NET)
Hero showed T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Tens) and LOST (-1,355 NET)


This has happened to me like four times tonight

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

challenge did not deliver

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

I think I'll try this one day. How many did you play? How many FTs? Well played nevertheless.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a1...ife/4-180s.jpg

For what it's worth heres the final tally on the day... will be re-visiting this thread next Tuesday and will win one then. Taking action on it if available...

EDIT: Fun pokertracker stats for you to enjoy... I played 4,716 hands in these 50 mtts that I played and according to averages I should be dealt a certain pocket pair precisely every 220 times so that means I should have approximately 21 of each pocket pair... let's see how the stats line up.

AA: 14
KK: 23
QQ: 20
JJ: 20
TT: 31
99: 21
88: 22
77: 17
66: 22
55: 21
44: 19
33: 22
22: 29

I'm a big fan of JJ-KK being right on target and if you average the TT and the AA out it comes close... 22 being my second most popular is kinda amusing.

169 Unique starters by far my most popular was A5o which was a wopping 58 times. No reasonable playable hand cracked the top 10 most popular with A5o being by far the best of the bunch. Least popular wasn't filled with tons of great hands but AQs was my least popular overall throughout this entire time (perhaps a good thing?) only being dealt it 7 times. Other hands of note: AKs 17 times and AKo and AQo both 40 ties.

I won more chips than I lost in every level from 10/20 to 400/800 except 50/100 where my loss rate was huge. Perhaps I have a leak there I need to examine. My bb won/hand is so much greater at 200/400 than any other level so I'm very proud of that. Shows that I'm picking up the chips at the right times. My aggression factor also doubles from 100/200 into 150/300 and stays the same at 200/400 then drops back down at 300/600. That seems standard but I'm not sure.

Ok thats all enjoy.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you sleeping or playing until you win one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the goal was to play until I won one without sleeping or not joining one that launches... but they're really not launching very fast at this hour and the next two days I'm goign to spend grinding into a $650 Pro Bounty tournament in Sarasota so I dunno if its possible for me to do it tonight [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] If I had action on this then I would def not be sleeping but I don't so I can just try this again next Tuesday.

EDIT: My best shot might be the one I just cashed in... 6/18 right now

[/ QUOTE ]


Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa...

Sarasota Kennel Club? One Eyed Jacks? That $650 bounty pro tournament?

Do you live in Sarasota?

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

You should have won instead of getting 2nd. Then this would be over. :-/ GL.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

he lives in tampa and deals in tampa, but plays all over there area.. but yea he will be there today.. hes a big guy if i had to guess will be wearing his lucky florida gators shirt and hat.. nicest guy at the table you can meet... as for me.. borgata here i come baby 315 flight to nj.. good luck boys and i'll take action on lord strife next week if anybody wants some

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Well for the record I am not from Sarasota and Klaching is correct I do live in tampa and that's probably what I was wearing tomorrow if I went and played but theres a ton of loopholes I would have to jump through to get into the One Eyed Jacks tournament Friday so I'm not even going to bother.

You know what that means for you guys? Another day of $4/180man action for me so I'm in the next one that's going to launch and will be playing on very little sleep in every one thats coming up. WEEEEEEEEEEEE

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Hmm, I live in Venice, about 15 miles south of Sarasota.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I live in Venice, about 15 miles south of Sarasota.

[/ QUOTE ]

I grew up in Punta Gorda and went to USF for school so I kinda ended up here for living

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Strife--

Can I assume you still think you're &gt;90% to succeed?

--Nate

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them. I actually decided not to play all of them today because I'm going to the brick and mortar casino shortly.. however I am 4/9 at a final table right now and 10/19 in the other one i'm playing.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

well? done? update?

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session.

[/ QUOTE ]

That can't be right at all IMO. If OP has a clue what he is doing, he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90 or less 180s.

Look, if the MTT was a lottery he would win 1 in 180 on average. So if he was playing based on pure luck alone he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90. Because OP posts on 2+2 alone makes him a much bigger favorite than that to win one.

I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 and close to 100% (on average) to win 1 in 120.

Sherman

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session.

[/ QUOTE ]

That can't be right at all IMO. If OP has a clue what he is doing, he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90 or less 180s.

Look, if the MTT was a lottery he would win 1 in 180 on average. So if he was playing based on pure luck alone he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90. Because OP posts on 2+2 alone makes him a much bigger favorite than that to win one.

I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 and close to 100% (on average) to win 1 in 120.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]

I was basing my calculation on his actual record in 4/180s (1 win in 208 attempts).

I agree that it's entirely possible -- even likely -- that his actual chance of winning is better than 1/208.

If his chance to win was 1/180, he would be 50% to win at least 1 if he played 125. *NOT* 90, as you suggested.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60

[/ QUOTE ]

To be 50% to win 1 (or more) out of 60, you have to win 1.15% of the time. That's a little bit over 2 out of 180.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Forgive me, but this makes no sense to me.

The probabilities ought to be additive.

That is, if his chance of winning a single 180-person MTT is 1/180, he chances of winning 1 of 2 180-person MTTs ought to be 2/180. And so forth. So his probability of winning 1 180 person tournament given 90 tournaments ought to be exactly 90/180 or 50%. Please explain how I am wrong.

Sherman

PS - FWIW, I know what you were doing by using his current data, I am just pointing out that unless he is a losing player (which he probably isn't) or is trying to lose, his probability of winning a single 180 tournament is surely better than 1 out of 200+.