Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Zags and oregon are both plays for me. Oregon a 2u play.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

St Joe's did not impress me at all from tracking the Ball State game the other night. They were a 15-16 point favorite and struggled throughout the contest. I think there is value in Gonzaga but considering the sketchiness of the line (I was expecting Gonzaga -3) I would make it a 3 unit or even 2 unit play.

I like Oregon if I had to bet the other game.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

I love oregon tonight -2. Kansas state always has their star players in foul trouble early and it burns them late in games. Ducks are too quick and are able to shot the three great in every game. Love oregon to get the win here.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Got lucky to sneak through that Richmond play as I got them at -2 like I said and they won by 3. Many people pushed.

Tonight I'm doing 2 units on two underdogs and 3 units on one underdog.

I'm 9-6-0 in college hoops and up 17 units of profit, on the year in college basketball (most plays posted here or there...I have nothing to gain or lose by posting my record just tossing it out there)

Here's the breakdown,

2 units-Gonzaga (+ 1 1/2)
2 units-Drexel (+8 1/2)
3 units-Oklahoma (+6)

2 units-Gonzaga. I'm rolling with Gonzaga tonight. Obviously flying across the country from Spokane into the city of Brotherly Love isn't an advantage for the Zags but I think on the floor this is just the better basketball team.

Let's take a look at St Joe's. The Hawks came into their last game against Ball State floating around a 16 point favorite. They looked sluggish and quite rankly overrated with that number in winning 74-63. The game was tight throughout and featured St Joe's turning the ball over more than their opponents.

They also didn't shoot really cold from the outside, hitting 12 of 26 threes, for greater than 46%. You would think that if it was tight with an 0-5 team like Ball State St Joe's would have shot maybe 25% but actually they shot the ball well from behind the arc and also 80% from the foul stripe.

Another interesting SJU fact...they lost to Syracuse who has proven to be quite the fraud; giving up 107 points last night as well as getting absolutely housed by A&M at Madison Square Garden. That is no longer a quality win.

Gonzaga is coming off a pretty strong pounding of Virginia Tech. Though Gonzaga's loss to Texas Tech seems alarming I think that can be generously omissed compared to SJU's games due to the Voskuil kind on TT having a ridiuclously sick game.

I'm not in love with what I've seen out of Fews Bulldogs but I truly believe they have been more tested with the experience they gained in the Great Alaskan Shootout and I feel SJU's has some leaks based off of some of their closer than should be encounters against bad teams.

I think Gonzaga wins the game by 5 and lives up to their top 15 preseason ranking.
------------------------------------------------------------
Drexel (+8 1/2)

I think this is too many points for George Mason to be laying against Bruiser Flint's team. I like George Mason to win a close game but I think the Dragons from Drexel hang in the game throughout due to the talent and experience of Frank Elegar.

The only loss for Drexel is against Virginia, who I believe to be the second best ACC team and a taem that contains one of the best players in the country in Sean Singletary.

Flint's Dragons lost 72-58 but gave the Cavs a fight for almost the full 40 minutes.

George Mason seemed to fade in the ball games played in Disney over Thanksgiving on their way to giving up a lead as Villanova pulled away as well as getting down 14-2 against South Carolina, a game in which they were 2.5-3 point favorites and failed to cover.

I think 8.5 is just too much as the Dragons and Elegar keep it close tonight.
-----------------------------------------------------------

3 unit play on 5-1 Oklahama tonight since I think laying 6 with the Southern California Trojans is just too much.

The line looks inflated off the 70-45 whipping USC handed ranked opponent Southern Illinois.

Personally I think that game is an aberration until I'm proven otherwise.

USC did lose by 15 at home to Belmont as well as winning by only 10 against a 2-3 and bad San Diego team.

Oklahoma's only loss was to a legit Memphis team, ranked third in the land.

Oklahoma plays it tight and I predict wins outright on the west coast.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

blight, we are on the same side for these three. my plays:

wake forest -4.5 -102
tenn martin +7 -105
ohio +5.5 -107 2u
S alabama +11.5 -108 2u
oregon -2.5 -106 2u
oklahoma +6 +100
drexel +7 -103
witch state +180 2u
gonzaga +115

no 3u plays tonight. My highlighted matchup is Wichita st at App St.

witch st:
11/13 Ark-PB W 61-56
11/16 Baylor L 64-55
11/17 at Monmouth L 59-50
11/19 Ill-Chicago W 67-60
11/24 Wyoming W 75-63

app st.
11/12 at Charlotte L 84-78
11/15 at Lipscomb W 81-58
11/16 San Jose St L 64-62
11/17 at M Tenn St W 84-79
11/21 at Campbell W 71-64

The win over Wyoming looks good for a fourth tier team like Wich. The Shockers start 3 seniors, 1 junior, and 1 frosh. The mountaineers have a collection of sophs to seniors (1 frosh) who see playing time. Certainly deeper than the Shockers. The size advantage is slightly in favor of the mountaineers. Sag (not that sag matters much at this point) says that Wich is the better team, barely. All told, I see this game as a coin flip, or a 45/55 in favor of app st. the +180 price should be deliciously pounded.

Another game of note is S.Alabama travelling to Vandy. S.Ala is a decent 4th tier team. Vandy hasn't put a game away yet. I don't think their first blowout will come against a decent S.Alabama team.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Where did you get Drexel at 8.5? I like it for a small play at that number, but haven't seen it move beyond 7.5,and is 7 everywhere now.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Thursday November 28th:
12-3 +$1289.65
61.3% Bankroll Increase.
Bankroll: $3388.95

<font color="red">Thursday November 29th</font>

Drexel Dragons +7.5 (-110)
$110 to win $100

Oregon Ducks -2 (-110)
$110 to win $100

Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 (-110)
$110 to win $100

Boston Celtics New York Knicks Under 188.5 (-110)
$110 to win $100

Boston Celtics -4 1Q (-110)
$110 to win $100

Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-120)
$110 to win $91.66

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3 (-120)
$110 to win $91.66

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

11/29 picks

WAKE FOREST -4½-110 1u
TEMPLE -5-110 1u
AIR FORCE -6-110 1u
SANTA CLARA -8-110 1u
GONZAGA +2-110 1u
ARKANSAS STATE -7½-110 1u
OREGON -2-110 1u

YTD: 15-5-0 +9.5u

I need to get some other books up cause some of my spreads suck compared to others in this thread.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thursday November 28th:
12-3 +$1289.65
61.3% Bankroll Increase.
Bankroll: $3388.95

<font color="red">Thursday November 29th</font>

Drexel Dragons +7.5 (-110)
$110 to win $100

Oregon Ducks -2 (-110)
$110 to win $100

Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 (-110)
$110 to win $100

Boston Celtics New York Knicks Under 188.5 (-110)
$110 to win $100

Boston Celtics -4 1Q (-110)
$110 to win $100

Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-120)
$110 to win $91.66

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3 (-120)
$110 to win $91.66


40.00 154.85
Basketball - 509 Drexel +9½ -140 buying 1½ for Game
Basketball - 515 Gonzaga +3½ -130 buying 1 for Game
Basketball - 519 Oregon +1 -165 buying 2½ for Game

38.95 626.04
Football - 302 Dallas Cowboys -6 -135 for Game
Football - 303 Rutgers +3½ -135 for Game
Basketball - 509 Drexel +9 -130 buying 1 for Game
Basketball - 519 Oregon -125 for Game
Basketball - 525 Wichita State +5 -130 buying 1 for Game

60.00 113.79
Football - 302 Dallas Cowboys -5½ -145 for Game
Football - 303 Rutgers +4 -140 for Game


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

drexel is getting hammered!

this is bad.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

yes they are quite ugly, I need gonzaga to step up and basically cancel this one out before Oklahoma and USC heat up.

Remember what I said about George Mason though---they have hit a large minute lull in their last three games that I saw them play (beginning of second half vs Nova I believe), 14-2 deficit they got themselves in against South Carolina and end of first half (I believe, it was some point) against Kansas State.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

I should have recognized that this could be bad. Frankly, Drexel has been unimpressive against some mediocre teams (Navy, Penn) and hung with UVA only because the Hoos are struggling to defend the post due to injury, leading to a huge game for Elegar. This is Mason's strength, on the other hand, and the back courts are probably a small adv. to Mason.

Mason has impressive wins against legit teams, on the other hand, and a huge experience advantage.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

oh drexel.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Looks like Whichita State has a good shot to cover up 6 with 2 mins to go.

We need Gonzaga to keep it up.

Whats the play for USC Oklahoma?

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

I got talked out of making a ML bet on Okla. Took the points. Also got talked out of Buffalo ML (no bet there).... and Ohio ML (took points).... At least the same guy talked me into INCREASING my So Ala action.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Looks like a good night for you CardSharp.

So Oklahoma is the play?

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

ya, good night. But in unrelated NFL action, GB looks to be a unit loss on the ML. Okla is the play.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Zags cash in in overtime.

Need the Ducks to start scoring. down 6 with 12 left.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

pulling within 3 with 9 to play.

go ducks go.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

ducks up 1 with 3 to play..

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

k state up 1 with 1:20 to play....

nailbitter.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

71-71 K state with 23 seconds left.

Ducks ball, need a 3 for the win.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Ducks shooting 2 for the win....

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Overtime....again.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Ducks win by 3! in overtime.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

nice win for oregon. they trailed the entire game but hung in there. k-state got the majority of the calls. iirc correctly, oregon was rather inconsistent last season while compiling a 17-16 ats record. with most of their key players returning they start this season 5-2 ats. i will be curious to read their local newspapers going forward and try to figure out just how reliable and veteran this team looks to be.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

man, how awful was it seeing the KState guy going in for a meaningless layup.... and then him realizing it with no time to correct! Go DuckS!

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Not the half I wanted for Oklahoma...looking like a 1-2 night in college hoops with them down 11..this game looks like it could be the old 64-46 USC win variety.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Tuesday - Thursday Recap:
17-3 +$1897.91
90.3% Bankroll Increase.
Bankroll: $3997.91

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

betonit, you're on fire!

Here's my plays for tomorrow:
Wash St. -2 -1053u
OSU -3.5 2u -105
Rice pk 2u -106
Iona -2 1u -105
Montana -7.5 1u -115
Pepp -5 1u -105
Marq -18.5 2u -105


The play of the day is, of course, Wash St. When will the rest of the country learn that Wash St. really is good at the basketball?

My two highlighted games are Oregon St. and Rice. Both are 2u plays for me. OSU enjoys the strongest HFA in the Pac10. Time and again, they pull off improbably upsets on that court. IIRC, they beat a decent USC team on that court last year. This year, OSU appears to be slightly better (they were attrocious last year). They are hosting a pretty mediocore Iowa St. team. On a neutral court, I'd be comfortable picking OSU and even placing money on them to win the game. In Corvalis... ISU shouldn't stand a chance. 3.5 points should be covered.

"1" and 4 E. Illinois has an encouraging win over Harris Stowe State College. Their 4 losses have been by an average of 15.5 points to an unimpressive schedule (loyola-chi, W.Ill). Rice is winless. Their schedule is only slightly better and so are their results. However, their results give slightly more hope that they might actually get a victory than e.ill. Sagarin (if we can even use sag at this point in the season) has Rice as a 5+ point fav on a neutral court. They are playing in Houston. Bet on the Owls to win their first. Profit.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Agreed on Wash. St. This will probably be a wake up call for Baylor. They beat Notre Dame in what will probably be one of Notre Dame's coldest shooting games this season. Baylor only won by 4 even though they shot 41% from the field versus Notre Dame's 34% with 2 of Dame's starters going 3-22 from the field. I'm not saying I Has Lox... but I see Baylor just struggling to stay in this one.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

I like you picks cook, except for Iona. Iona is really bad and doesn't seem to have gotten the hang of their new system. They are 0-6 and coming off loses to Jackson State and South Carolina State (who both have one win).

Delaware is a better team, despite a 0-3 record. All three loses are to solid mid major teams and each game has been competitive. Delaware is not good by any means, but they are definitely the better team here, imo.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Iona

11/10 at R Morris L 72-66
11/14 at Princeton L 66-58
11/18 at #1 UNC L 107-72
11/20 at ODU L 74-63
11/23 SC St L 81-76
11/24 Jackson St L 74-70

Delaware

11/11 at Marist L 89-78
11/17 at Rider L 76-71
11/27 Hampton L 51-50

I think my reasoning went something like this: Iona has been in every game they played. They scored 72 points against UNC.... losing by 35, but clearly they are at least able to put the ball in the rim. They are playing at home. While DELAWARE LOST TO FREAKING MARIST!!!

Also, two of your "mid-majors" come from this conference: Niagara, St. Peter's, Loyola (MD), Marist, Rider, Manhattan, Siena, Fairfield, Canisius, Iona. Does the MAAC really count as a "mid-major"? Thought that was reserved for the MWC, WAC, C-USA, and these days the MVC.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

Point taken about the MAAC.

I don't think Marist is as bad as you make them out to be, the lost to Houston by 6 and beat Richmond and Bucknell. They lost a bunch off their NIT team from last year, but they still have some good experience. Those are ok wins, nothing spectacular, but not bottom 50 losses to programs like South Carolina State and Jackson State.

Marist and Rider were preseason 4th and 5th in the MAAC, Iona was a distant 8th, and there was a huge drop off from 7th to 8th.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

I was probably a little harsh to Jackson State there, they are not bottom 50. South Carolina State may be bottom 25 though.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

I need to butt in to say that indeed..Marist is at least a decent team this year and better than at least half of the NCAA.

That has nothing to do with my opinion of the game or anything but their basketball program is respectable this year.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

So we can all agree on Washington State as the top play tonight.

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

[ QUOTE ]
While DELAWARE LOST TO FREAKING MARIST!!!



[/ QUOTE ]

Are you getting Iona and Marist confused or something?

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

CardShark, I have the Rice game being played in Iowa City, Iowa. How does that change your thoughts on the game?

Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
 

[ QUOTE ]
CardShark, I have the Rice game being played in Iowa City, Iowa. How does that change your thoughts on the game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then.... I got owned. Instead of a home game for Rice, it is a 90 min drive from e. Ill. I think it changes it to a "no-bet" with e.Ill being the slight fav. As I said before, I believe that Rice is a fav on a neutral court. They question is by how much, and how much HFA does E.Ill get playing in Iowa City. Why are they playing this meaningless game btwn teams that can't win in Iowa City?