Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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Good post pokey

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Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

Nielso,

You are not God's gift to SSNL.

Here are attributes of GOOD posts/posters:
1) Brings up unique topics of discussion.
2) Rephrases old topics in an easier to understand way.
3) Funny/ otherwise entertaining/intesting.

Examples:
"Another way to look at playing out of the bb" (2)
"Theory: bluffing frequencies" (1)

Bad posts:
"I flipped 100 coins and (poorly) explained gambler's fallacy"
Good post:
"Let's look into Gambler's Fallacy and what it means to SSNL using an adequate sample and relating it to multiple aspects of poker"

Bad post:
"Vaguely explaining generalized steps of learning and development"
Good post:
"Explaining how you can take these steps to learn and develop specific areas of your SSNL game."

Nielso, I'm not sure why I havn't ignored you yet. I don't think you add much to SSNL but I believe you're a very intelligent person. I would like to see your posts tie more into specific poker examples instead of being too broad to incite good discussion.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

hahahahahahahahahhhhaahahahahahaahahahahahahahahah

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

So I've been thinking about this whole gambler's fallacy argument and it's actually kind of weird to think about. Let's say we decide to flip a coin X times. Well the highest probability out comes is that from 0 to X, the coin will come up an even amount of heads and tails. Yet if we look at point Y which is between 0 and X and see that at that particular time there has been 10 more heads than tails, we are somehow going to always be 10 behind. But we weren't ever actually looking at point Y until after we completed the flips, so that statistic is irrelevant. So honestly, you will see streaks of heads, but you will also see streaks of tails. People can't really analyze that data at point Y because its honestly not relevant.

It's almost a support for the gambler's fallacy, but probably not how people actually use it. Yes if you are measure from point 0 to point X, you should get close to evening out and yes there will be large streaks of one or another, but that information is actually irrelevant to the "experiment" and we've already decided that from 0 to X it should be even.

I'm not sure if I explained this properly, but it's kind of bugging me.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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This post is much more important than people seem to realize.


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I think you are levelling or being levelled.

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I'm sure most of us have heard of the "Gambler's Fallacy." It basically means that a little bit of statistics is a dangerous thing. People know that a "fair coin" will flip heads as often as tails. So when they watch a coin flip heads-heads-heads-heads-heads they KNOW that the coin is "overdue" for tails, and they begin to expect that tails will come more often for awhile to "catch up," because that's what coins do. As savvy gamblers we should know that coins, dice, and cards have no memory. They don't know that they've cheated you the last six times, and they don't feel that they owe you a win now. They ALSO don't know that they've let you suck out the last six times, so they're not going to punish you this time. Each coin flip is an independent event, and should be judged on its own merits, rather than on the past history.


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I think most people think that the OP is a bad post because 90% of posters on this board do, indeed, understand the gambler's fallacy, and in any case the post doesn't really explain it well. You do explain it well.

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Luckily, ordinary gamblers are NOT savvy about statistics. Case in point: several years ago, casinos began adding a counter to their roulette wheels that showed the last dozen or so spins of that particular wheel: what the number was and whether it was red or black. After putting in those counters, the casino profits from the roulette tables increased over 25% basically overnight, as people began betting on the roulette wheels that were "due" to hit a particular number or color.


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This does not follow for me. You're claiming that the house edge is greater when all players bet the same color? How is this so (I speak from ignorance about how roulette works)?

Otherwise, this makes no sense. Profits should not go up because even if all gambler's are following a gambler's fallacy strategy, their true odds remain the same.

That is, if it comes up red 10 times and I pick black because "it's due", I'll be right 50% of the time, just as I would be if I picked randomly. Forcing me to adopt a gambler's fallacy strategy never worsens my odds.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

more people will bet i think bilbo. edge certainly won't change

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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more people will bet i think bilbo. edge certainly won't change

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Do you mean there are people at a table that don't bet on each turn? Or that they will bet more $$? Is it like blackjack, where you decide how much to bet?

that would explain thinks. If an idiot usually bets $5 more or less randomly but will bet $100 on black when red comes up 5 times in a row ("it's due"), then increasing this tendencie would be +EV for the casino...

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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Luckily, ordinary gamblers are NOT savvy about statistics. Case in point: several years ago, casinos began adding a counter to their roulette wheels that showed the last dozen or so spins of that particular wheel: what the number was and whether it was red or black. After putting in those counters, the casino profits from the roulette tables increased over 25% basically overnight, as people began betting on the roulette wheels that were "due" to hit a particular number or color.


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This does not follow for me. You're claiming that the house edge is greater when all players bet the same color? How is this so (I speak from ignorance about how roulette works)?

Otherwise, this makes no sense. Profits should not go up because even if all gambler's are following a gambler's fallacy strategy, their true odds remain the same.

That is, if it comes up red 10 times and I pick black because "it's due", I'll be right 50% of the time, just as I would be if I picked randomly. Forcing me to adopt a gambler's fallacy strategy never worsens my odds.

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House profits went up since more people began to play roulette. Since they believed the counter next to the wheel was actually an important factor in their decision making.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

casino gamblers run on emotion, if they think they can beat the system they'll jump at the chance.

More people will be attracted to the roulette table, and as an average will probably bet more.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

I just did an experiment like this in which I had to take 10 coins and toss them from a cup 60 times for a statistics class experiment. Considering that this is a literal coinflip, it was interesting to see variance played out. The results were quite interesting. I would recommend it to everyone who plays poker seriously to see how variance truly works.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/2262/shittypostzx7.png

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phenomenal

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/2262/shittypostzx7.png

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phenomenal

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QFT omg man! [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

Nielso, you have committed a serious experimental flaw and your results are thus invalid. You flipped 100 coins. You should have flipped the same coin 100 times.

Control your variables yo.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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Nielso, you have committed a serious experimental flaw and your results are thus invalid. You flipped 100 coins. You should have flipped the same coin 100 times.

Control your variables yo.

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lol

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

[censored]

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

As I suspected it's a censored word. Please don't circumvent the profanity filter by any means, including in images. tyty.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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As I suspected it's a censored word. Please don't circumvent the profanity filter by any means, including in images. tyty.



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Clippy is one badass dude AJ and will say whatever the [censored] he wants. I wouldn't mess with him - last guy who dissed him got an eyeball poked out 4 realz.

Sup Clip.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

I can't believe I just read this.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

Okay I've got a math question I was thinking about recently but am not smart enough to figure out my self (plz don't make fun if it's really easy).

Let's say I play blackjack and I am 49% to win every hand. If I played blackjack every weekend for 2 hours for the rest of my life, what would my chances at being a winner at the end be (if you need the figures, which you probably don't, let's assume I average 50 hands per hour and play 4000 hours in my life)?

I guess the answer is 49% but that doesn't seem right.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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Okay I've got a math question I was thinking about recently but am not smart enough to figure out my self (plz don't make fun if it's really easy).

Let's say I play blackjack and I am 49% to win every hand. If I played blackjack every weekend for 2 hours for the rest of my life, what would my chances at being a winner at the end be (if you need the figures, which you probably don't, let's assume I average 50 hands per hour and play 4000 hours in my life)?

I guess the answer is 49% but that doesn't seem right.

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I dunno what the actual answer is, cuz I suck at math. but the reason guessing 49% is wrong, is because the more hands you play the closer your win % gets to being 49, meaning the % chance of you being an overall winner approaches 0% (since you are losing 51% of the time). Your chance of being a winner after 1 hand is 49%

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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Okay I've got a math question I was thinking about recently but am not smart enough to figure out my self (plz don't make fun if it's really easy).

Let's say I play blackjack and I am 49% to win every hand. If I played blackjack every weekend for 2 hours for the rest of my life, what would my chances at being a winner at the end be (if you need the figures, which you probably don't, let's assume I average 50 hands per hour and play 4000 hours in my life)?

I guess the answer is 49% but that doesn't seem right.

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Think in terms of lossrate. Every hand you play has a certain expected value. The total EV of all these hands adds up to an enormous total lossrate, and on top of the total lossrate is a variance in the form of a standard deviation.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay I've got a math question I was thinking about recently but am not smart enough to figure out my self (plz don't make fun if it's really easy).

Let's say I play blackjack and I am 49% to win every hand. If I played blackjack every weekend for 2 hours for the rest of my life, what would my chances at being a winner at the end be (if you need the figures, which you probably don't, let's assume I average 50 hands per hour and play 4000 hours in my life)?

I guess the answer is 49% but that doesn't seem right.

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it's not 49%, it's effectively 0.

edit: math deleted b/c i did it wrong and don't feel like doing it again. The conclusion is correct though.

The degenerate approach of making a -ev bet all at once is significantly better than betting piece by piece. Of course, the reverse is true if you're the one with the edge.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

Worst post ever. Who [censored] cares. There are simulations that can be done with this. Honestly, you're a retard.

V is for vag.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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Worst post ever. Who [censored] cares. There are simulations that can be done with this. Honestly, you're a retard.

V is for vag.

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On ignore and notified.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

please stop the flaming.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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I'm not sure if it's what you're implying or not, but you seem to be stating the gambler's fallacy. It doesn't even out, on average. At flip 23 where you're down 6.5 points off expectation, you should expect to be 6.5 points off expectation, on average, for the rest of eternity of flipping.

You approach your expected equity relative to your sample size, not in absolute terms. So say you're 5 flips off after 20 flips. That's a 25% difference! You should now expect to always be 5 flips off, but the percent will decrease as the sample size increases. So if you run at expectation for the next 80 flips, you'll still be down 5 flips but it will only be a 5% difference. As you increase your sample size you obviously get closer and closer to 0% difference (in other words running at expectation) but you'll always be down 5 flips.

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this is all needs to be said, i dont think u had to flip a coin 100 times to realize that variance is more present in the short term.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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I'm sure most of us have heard of the "Gambler's Fallatio." [...] People know that a "fair woman" will give head as often as refuse to. So when they watch a woman give head-head-head-head-head they KNOW that the woman is "overdue" for refusal, and they begin to expect that refusals will come more often for awhile to "catch up," because that's what women do. As savvy gamblers we should know that women, dice, and cards have no memory. They don't know that they've cheated you the last six times, and they don't feel that they owe you a score now. They ALSO don't know that they've let you get sucked out the last six times, so they're not going to punish you this time. Each woman is an independent being, and should be judged on its own merits, rather than on the past history.

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FYP - gamblers fellatio

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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Maybe you should submit this to a journal?

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I agree completely

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

[ ] Would like to meet OP

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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[ ] Would like to meet OP

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It would be quite an honour

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

awesome imo

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

This thread made my day

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

i just flipped a 2 pound coin (cos i'm a baller) and it landed on heads.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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Okay I've got a math question I was thinking about recently but am not smart enough to figure out my self (plz don't make fun if it's really easy).

Let's say I play blackjack and I am 49% to win every hand. If I played blackjack every weekend for 2 hours for the rest of my life, what would my chances at being a winner at the end be (if you need the figures, which you probably don't, let's assume I average 50 hands per hour and play 4000 hours in my life)?

I guess the answer is 49% but that doesn't seem right.

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Hey, I'm feeling a bit mathy, so I'll go ahead and answer the question.

To make the math easier (without really skewing the results much), let's say you either win $1 or lose $1 in each hand. There's a 49% chance you win a buck and a 51% chance you lose a buck. This gives us a nice binomial distribution which is very easy to manipulate and evaluate.

Over your lifetime you'll play 4000x50 = 200,000 hands of blackjack. In the average 100 hands you'll win $49 and lose $51, so your expectation is -$0.02 per hand, for a lifetime expectation of -$4,000. Now the variance of your lifetime total is going to be about 2*n*p*(1-p), or 2*(200,000)*(0.49)*(0.51) = 99,960. To find the standard deviation we take the square root of this number, giving us a standard deviation of about $316.16. To have a lifetime win, you'd therefore have to beat your expectation by 4000/316.16 = 12.65 standard deviations. Since there is a roughly 99.99999999974% chance of being within 7 standard deviations, the odds of you being a lifetime winner at blackjack are going to be markedly worse than that. I'd say the odds that you win at blackjack over your lifetime are slightly worse than the odds that you get hit by two meteors at the same time.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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I'd say the odds that you win at blackjack over your lifetime are slightly worse than the odds that you get hit by two meteors at the same time.

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So you're saying there's a chance?

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

ofc theres a chance

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

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I'd say the odds that you win at blackjack over your lifetime are slightly worse than the odds that you get hit by two meteors at the same time.

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But dude, I win at blackjack. I has a system.

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

haha somebody linked me to this. nielsio you have 10k+ posts. seriously?

Re: I flipped 100 coins
 

Seriously you need to do it with 10 000 flips to see if you get closer to 50/50 - It will give us an entirely new view on variance.