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-   -   Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=546347)

JDalla 11-14-2007 10:26 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
JDalla, why are you assuming 60/40 when AKo is 65/35 vs random and you are suggesting his range might be worse off than ATC?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah I guess that was quite a low estimate.

Yeah I think you're right. Adjusting the numbers to 65/35 vs his range, calling is now -$.70.

The more I think about it the more I like this call.

jkpoker 11-14-2007 10:29 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
need aakkqq

Little John 11-14-2007 10:37 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think all of these neg ev calls between regulars is pretty silly on the bubble. all it really does is transfer equity from the two of you to the two other players (assuming they are not winning regulars).



i would just make sure i push ATC (or 90%) into joe every time. if he is not making neg ev calls than you should not either.

now, if you catch joe making neg ev calls vs you on the bubble then you should return the favor.

[/ QUOTE ]


you spite call me on the bubble all day long.

[/ QUOTE ]

i call you very light, but that is because i put you on ATC anytime you have the chiplead and i'm not 100% great with my bubble call ranges, thus stuck playing 60's.

but if you think i've made some big time neg ev calls vs 100% push range, pm or e-mail me them and i'll take a look, and i apologize in advance if they are really bad.

i'll check my database and see if i can find a few...

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, it did not take me too long to find one.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

BB (t2190)
UTG (t6000)
Button (t2230)
Hero (t3080)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t5975</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t2855 (All-In), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t8905) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t8905) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t8905) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t8905

neg 1.7% vs ATC

but it is really not a neg 1.7 call, because if i fold i am gonna get short and will be pwn'ed until i am down to about 300 chips and flipping vs the other shorty. if i win (63%) i will be able to pwn the bubble.

this has been discussed before. most agree some type of neg ev play is good to make in this spot for the reasons i describe, but obviuosly 1.7% is too much. so a bad play, but not really a spite call, because if you loose this you are still in pretty good shape. this is more a case of not wanting to get pwn'ed too bad.

futuredoc85 11-14-2007 10:38 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
f that 1.7% blah blah blah you cant let him push u around!

kleath 11-14-2007 10:46 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think all of these neg ev calls between regulars is pretty silly on the bubble. all it really does is transfer equity from the two of you to the two other players (assuming they are not winning regulars).



i would just make sure i push ATC (or 90%) into joe every time. if he is not making neg ev calls than you should not either.

now, if you catch joe making neg ev calls vs you on the bubble then you should return the favor.

[/ QUOTE ]


you spite call me on the bubble all day long.

[/ QUOTE ]

ih8money is the only one who truly spitecalls and he hates everybody

Kevin8423 11-14-2007 10:47 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
Obv... he hates money.

spacegravy 11-14-2007 10:53 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Obv... he hates money.

[/ QUOTE ]

kleath 11-14-2007 10:55 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Obv... he hates money.

[/ QUOTE ]

touche

jukofyork 11-14-2007 10:57 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
i think all of these neg ev calls between regulars is pretty silly on the bubble. all it really does is transfer equity from the two of you to the two other players (assuming they are not winning regulars).

i would just make sure i push ATC (or 90%) into joe every time. if he is not making neg ev calls than you should not either.

now, if you catch joe making neg ev calls vs you on the bubble then you should return the favor.

[/ QUOTE ]
I made a post about this several months ago (see here).

I'm still hoping the multiway NE calculator guy tries out the suggestion I made about computing "unspitable" pushes (see here).

If you view all the SNGs you play as "one big game" and don't just consider each decison/SNG in isolation, then I wonder if the "true" nash equilibrium might be both a mixture of playing to maximise your own EV for the current situation/SNG and also spite calling appropriately to reduce opponent's future +EV plays against you in future SNGs.

Juk [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

AMT 11-14-2007 11:30 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Obv... he hates money .

[/ QUOTE ]

and i hate him.

TheActionKid 11-14-2007 11:48 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
I would never fold AK to bigjoe here if he shoves into me. I know that he knows that im not gonna call with AA KK QQ etc... and therefore he WILL push ATC here and AK will have him beat almost every time.

-TheActionKid

kleath 11-14-2007 11:53 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Obv... he hates money .

[/ QUOTE ]

and i hate him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its pretty hard not to really

Apathy 11-15-2007 12:04 AM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Seems to me he's just pissed off that he had your range wrong. And that cost him more than $100.

[/ QUOTE ]

this was my prediction before opening the thread.. that and he is obviously just trying to get you to fold more next time.

kleath 11-15-2007 12:11 AM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seems to me he's just pissed off that he had your range wrong. And that cost him more than $100.

[/ QUOTE ]

this was my prediction before opening the thread.. that and he is obviously just trying to get you to fold more next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty sure he actually berates regs when they do make bad calls too, which I guess makes it pretty sick metagame, you never actually know what joe thinks about your play!

rakemeplz 11-15-2007 12:34 AM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think all of these neg ev calls between regulars is pretty silly on the bubble. all it really does is transfer equity from the two of you to the two other players (assuming they are not winning regulars).

i would just make sure i push ATC (or 90%) into joe every time. if he is not making neg ev calls than you should not either.

now, if you catch joe making neg ev calls vs you on the bubble then you should return the favor.

[/ QUOTE ]
I made a post about this several months ago (see here).

I'm still hoping the multiway NE calculator guy tries out the suggestion I made about computing "unspitable" pushes (see here).

If you view all the SNGs you play as "one big game" and don't just consider each decison/SNG in isolation, then I wonder if the "true" nash equilibrium might be both a mixture of playing to maximise your own EV for the current situation/SNG and also spite calling appropriately to reduce opponent's future +EV plays against you in future SNGs.

Juk [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

The pseudonash game theory calc assume that a -0.0001 call is bad even though doing it will cause him to fold more hands to you in certain spots. Spite calling is obviously +ev if he adjusts his pushing ranges tighter to only +ev hands, thus gaining you more walks or even less pushes from late position etc. I think..

billybeartku 11-15-2007 09:00 AM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
I don't like your call, you almost guaranteed to be in the money why risk ur big stack with just an unpaired card? you know your AK is only 2 to 1 fav. against ATC? I don't even call there with QQ. I only call w/ AA and KK. That's a really bad, -EV call imo.

JDalla 11-15-2007 09:05 AM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like your call, you almost guaranteed to be in the money why risk ur big stack with just an unpaired card? you know your AK is only 2 to 1 fav. against ATC? I don't even call there with QQ. I only call w/ AA and KK. That's a really bad, -EV call imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you look at the math, the call is -70 cents of equity, plus a loss of about half of my future edge on the 2 weak players.

For him it's a loss of about $300 when I call, making it much worse for him, meaning in the future he should not push as wide. I think it's overall (not in a vaccume) +ev call and I plan on continuing to make it.

eurythmech 11-15-2007 09:19 AM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
Folding queens, wtf?

BlueSmurf 11-15-2007 09:53 AM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
Two probably stupid newb questions:

[ QUOTE ]
I would never fold AK to bigjoe here if he shoves into me. I know that he knows that im not gonna call with AA KK QQ etc... and therefore he WILL push ATC here and AK will have him beat almost every time

[/ QUOTE ]

I can not make sense of this. He knows you don't call with even aces, kings or queens, so he pushes everything and therefore you call with AKo. Presumably, you call with better hands as well, so how can he know you don't call when you do call? It smells like very circular logic to me.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm willing to sacriface $37.68 equity to cost Joe $341.5, because in the future it will be correct for him not to push as light. If in the future he folds his J6 in this spot I either get a walk, or call a short stacks push, with the same 60/40 edge, a result which will probably raise my equity by more than the $37.68 I lost in this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the equity Joe loses incorporated into yours? If it is, you give up $38 to transfer equity from Joe to the other two guys, and then it seems odd to state that you spend $38 to give him a $341 equity loss, because you don't benefit anyway. You just move the equity around (unless you figure it's x% of that loss worth to you to not have the $341 in the hands of Joe but the other players who are weaker). If you do get a part of his equity loss, then your call shouldn't show negative expectations at all, should it?

If the above is the most drunken nonsense you ever heard, can someone very briefly explain why?

Thanks in advance,

Smurf

BHokie1 11-15-2007 10:28 AM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
If he was in the SB I'd snap call because you'll be subject to him pushing relentlessly the next few hands. Since you are on his right you'll be able to shove in front of him on the next 3 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The math of the call is pretty straight forward and honestly kind of boring.

If you want to think outside of ICM math and look at how the bubble plays out, DD hit on it right here.

If you are looking to make a metagame call - Pudge hit on it with the fold AK - call with something like T9.

JDalla 11-15-2007 11:51 AM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Two probably stupid newb questions:

[ QUOTE ]
I would never fold AK to bigjoe here if he shoves into me. I know that he knows that im not gonna call with AA KK QQ etc... and therefore he WILL push ATC here and AK will have him beat almost every time

[/ QUOTE ]

I can not make sense of this. He knows you don't call with even aces, kings or queens, so he pushes everything and therefore you call with AKo. Presumably, you call with better hands as well, so how can he know you don't call when you do call? It smells like very circular logic to me.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm willing to sacriface $37.68 equity to cost Joe $341.5, because in the future it will be correct for him not to push as light. If in the future he folds his J6 in this spot I either get a walk, or call a short stacks push, with the same 60/40 edge, a result which will probably raise my equity by more than the $37.68 I lost in this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the equity Joe loses incorporated into yours? If it is, you give up $38 to transfer equity from Joe to the other two guys, and then it seems odd to state that you spend $38 to give him a $341 equity loss, because you don't benefit anyway. You just move the equity around (unless you figure it's x% of that loss worth to you to not have the $341 in the hands of Joe but the other players who are weaker). If you do get a part of his equity loss, then your call shouldn't show negative expectations at all, should it?

If the above is the most drunken nonsense you ever heard, can someone very briefly explain why?

Thanks in advance,

Smurf

[/ QUOTE ]

when he loses I get the majority of his lost equity, but when I lose, I lose quite a bit myself. The average for me is -$37 if I'm 60/40, or -$.7 if I'm 65/35 (or something close to these numbers).

His average is -$341.
The other 2 opponents are gaining this money in EV terms.

JDalla 11-15-2007 11:53 AM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he was in the SB I'd snap call because you'll be subject to him pushing relentlessly the next few hands. Since you are on his right you'll be able to shove in front of him on the next 3 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The math of the call is pretty straight forward and honestly kind of boring.

If you want to think outside of ICM math and look at how the bubble plays out, DD hit on it right here.

If you are looking to make a metagame call - Pudge hit on it with the fold AK - call with something like T9.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's an interesting idea, but the fact is that T9 doesn't run as well against his range. He has a few dominating hands in the mix. I'm not sure what the exact math is, I wonder what my EV loss is if I call T9 here.

bumpking 11-15-2007 12:08 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]

when he loses I get the majority of his lost equity, but when I lose, I lose quite a bit myself. The average for me is -$37 if I'm 60/40, or -$.7 if I'm 65/35 (or something close to these numbers).

His average is -$341.
The other 2 opponents are gaining this money in EV terms.

[/ QUOTE ]

This business of him losing -$341 only applies when you call with AKo. It is a +EV push for him in the identical scenario next time as well cuz his overall push is not -$341 with ATC, it's about even or slightly +EV. So if you think meta-game is gonna change his push range, you're wrong IMO.

-BK

Slim Pickens 11-15-2007 01:14 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
JDalla, why are you assuming 60/40 when AKo is 65/35 vs random and you are suggesting his range might be worse off than ATC?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah I guess that was quite a low estimate.

Yeah I think you're right. Adjusting the numbers to 65/35 vs his range, calling is now -$.70.

The more I think about it the more I like this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why the SNGWhiz plots are so useful. Even though a straight S-C range axis doesn't capture his actual pushing ranges exactly, it's a pretty good approximation. Then, the plot allows you to quickly eyeball the sensitivity of the call to his push range and find the break-even range. With that information, it's much easier to use your mighty poker brain to decide if the conditions that make the play you want to do correct are realistic.

suzzer99 11-15-2007 01:26 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
If you are looking to make a metagame call - Pudge hit on it with the fold AK - call with something like T9.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes because he's going to assume T9s is now in your range and factor that in next time. T9s just starts a pissing war. AK says you're probably going to call with that again in the same spot.

JDalla 11-15-2007 01:31 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

when he loses I get the majority of his lost equity, but when I lose, I lose quite a bit myself. The average for me is -$37 if I'm 60/40, or -$.7 if I'm 65/35 (or something close to these numbers).

His average is -$341.
The other 2 opponents are gaining this money in EV terms.

[/ QUOTE ]

This business of him losing -$341 only applies when you call with AKo. It is a +EV push for him in the identical scenario next time as well cuz his overall push is not -$341 with ATC, it's about even or slightly +EV. So if you think meta-game is gonna change his push range, you're wrong IMO.

-BK

[/ QUOTE ]

His range may not change, but if he knows I'm folding AKo there doesn't he think push with 32o here profitably?

billybeartku 11-15-2007 02:06 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

when he loses I get the majority of his lost equity, but when I lose, I lose quite a bit myself. The average for me is -$37 if I'm 60/40, or -$.7 if I'm 65/35 (or something close to these numbers).

His average is -$341.
The other 2 opponents are gaining this money in EV terms.

[/ QUOTE ]

This business of him losing -$341 only applies when you call with AKo. It is a +EV push for him in the identical scenario next time as well cuz his overall push is not -$341 with ATC, it's about even or slightly +EV. So if you think meta-game is gonna change his push range, you're wrong IMO.

-BK

[/ QUOTE ]

His range may not change, but if he knows I'm folding AKo there doesn't he think push with 32o here profitably?

[/ QUOTE ]

obv, I don't know why you posted this actually when a lot of us have been telling you it's a -EV call on your part and you kept defending yourself and kept saying you plan on continuing to do this in the future.

suzzer99 11-15-2007 02:13 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
Dude you advocated folding QQ. No good player is ever folding QQ there, and I seriously doubt many are folding AK.

jukofyork 11-15-2007 02:18 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

when he loses I get the majority of his lost equity, but when I lose, I lose quite a bit myself. The average for me is -$37 if I'm 60/40, or -$.7 if I'm 65/35 (or something close to these numbers).

His average is -$341.
The other 2 opponents are gaining this money in EV terms.

[/ QUOTE ]

This business of him losing -$341 only applies when you call with AKo. It is a +EV push for him in the identical scenario next time as well cuz his overall push is not -$341 with ATC, it's about even or slightly +EV. So if you think meta-game is gonna change his push range, you're wrong IMO.

-BK

[/ QUOTE ]

His range may not change, but if he knows I'm folding AKo there doesn't he think push with 32o here profitably?

[/ QUOTE ]

obv, I don't know why you posted this actually when a lot of us have been telling you it's a -EV call on your part and you kept defending yourself and kept saying you plan on continuing to do this in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]
But the really interesting thing is that even though it was a -EV call for that hand, is it a longterm -EV play if it forces your opponent to push less into you in the future?

It's kinda like telling your opponent: "I'm gonna spite call your pushes for up-to $30 a hand whatever you do" and then seeing if the strategy he uses to counter this plan is more +EV for you than never spiting him and just folding when it's -EV for you.

Juk [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

BHokie1 11-15-2007 02:22 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he was in the SB I'd snap call because you'll be subject to him pushing relentlessly the next few hands. Since you are on his right you'll be able to shove in front of him on the next 3 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The math of the call is pretty straight forward and honestly kind of boring.

If you want to think outside of ICM math and look at how the bubble plays out, DD hit on it right here.

If you are looking to make a metagame call - Pudge hit on it with the fold AK - call with something like T9.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's an interesting idea, but the fact is that T9 doesn't run as well against his range. He has a few dominating hands in the mix. I'm not sure what the exact math is, I wonder what my EV loss is if I call T9 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you made this post to determine if the AK was a +/- EV call, it's -EV. A lot of people can do a lot of math and argue how bad of a call it is or how it's not that bad, but why go outside ICM. I can only think of two reasons, looking forward to how the bubble plays out, or metagame.

So if you are looking outside of ICM for how the bubble plays out, I still think it's a bad call because you are acting before he does (first to push) on every hand on the bubble except when he is UTG. As pointed out by Ditch Digger.

If you are looking to make a metagame call to tighten his range for future STTs, AK doesn't tighten his range very much, but T9 might. As pointed out by Pudge.

No matter how I look at it, I don't think it's a good call.

suzzer99 11-15-2007 02:29 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
IMO there's a big difference between a spite call and a principle call. Spite calls aren't ever really going to make anyone adjust their range, because they know you won't do it every time. A principle call says "This may be slightly -ev, but I'm not folding AK to you with the CL and you on any 2, deal with it." Maybe I don't call AK there every time, maybe I do. Maybe I call AQ. I think that gives a thinking regular a little more to consider than a randomly spite calling them once a month.

microbet 11-15-2007 02:32 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
Bhokie,

It's -EV against what range using what software?

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...alculator.html

That thing shows it as +EV against BJ's NE pushing range.

DannyOcean_ 11-15-2007 02:32 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
First, a moment to LOL at this person

[ QUOTE ]
Game theory's Nash Equilibrium applies to two player games. Calling here is -EV, but since Bigjoe pushes almost ATC here, I dont mind the call. Since he is a regular, and a good one at that, he will probably note the call, push tighter against you, and tell you he's sliding ATC.


[/ QUOTE ]

Some pros and cons of this hand.

con - we can push in front of him 3x when he can push in front of us.

pro - metagame considerations

con - either 30ish dollars or 70 cents lost in equity

con - Won't really change his push range much. Maybe he wont push 32o or 25o or whatev, but he's still pushing 99% in the future against you. a T9 loses more equity but works way better to actually change his range.

kleath 11-15-2007 02:43 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Bhokie,

It's -EV against what range using what software?

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...alculator.html

That thing shows it as +EV against BJ's NE pushing range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think OP was factoring in his future EV which seems just arbitrarily figured out by him so I have no clue where he's getting those exact numbers, but in this hand its near neutral in a vacuum, you're getting bigger edges later by folding.

I agree with suzzer as well, calling T9 doesnt do much because he knows you cant just start calling there everytime so it doesnt really change his range if you'll only deviate from your normal call range if you want to spite call. AK on the other hand if he knows you wont fold it that may slightly effect his range. I think calling with AQ or AJ sends more of a message than T9, because the AQ/AJ you could actually incorporate into your range while T9 is clearly not a regular occurance.

Velocity 11-15-2007 02:52 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
IMO there's a big difference between a spite call and a principle call. Spite calls aren't ever really going to make anyone adjust their range, because they know you won't do it every time. A principle call says "This may be slightly -ev, but I'm not folding AK to you with the CL and you on any 2, deal with it." Maybe I don't call AK there every time, maybe I do. Maybe I call AQ. I think that gives a thinking regular a little more to consider than a randomly spite calling them once a month.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, and what ditchdigger said.
[ QUOTE ]

If he was in the SB I'd snap call because you'll be subject to him pushing relentlessly the next few hands. Since you are on his right you'll be able to shove in front of him on the next 3 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is also something for to be said for having BigJoe, who won't make any mistakes later and decrease my edge a little, gone, too. That has to be worth something.

morphball 11-15-2007 02:56 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
My reasoning is that while this might be -EV for me, it is worse more -EV for him, and if I make calls like this against regulars, they will not be able to profitably push garbage on the bubble any more vs. my big blind. (he had J6).

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not going to read it all, but how do you expect a call with AKo to narrow his pushing range? Maybe if you show up with JTo or something he will narrow his range, but given AKo is fairly rare, I wouldn't be narrowing my range either.

suzzer99 11-15-2007 03:07 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
I guess we assume the shorties don't want to bubble, and are something like 66+,ATs+,AJo+. At JJ+ for hero, joe's range is 100%. At TT+, AK, AQs, it's 87%. If hero is on 66+,ATs+,AJo+, bigjoe's range drops to 9%.

Can you see how putting some doubt in his mind could make a big difference?

BHokie1 11-15-2007 03:15 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bhokie,

It's -EV against what range using what software?

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...alculator.html

That thing shows it as +EV against BJ's NE pushing range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think OP was factoring in his future EV which seems just arbitrarily figured out by him so I have no clue where he's getting those exact numbers, but in this hand its near neutral in a vacuum, you're getting bigger edges later by folding.

I agree with suzzer as well, calling T9 doesnt do much because he knows you cant just start calling there everytime so it doesnt really change his range if you'll only deviate from your normal call range if you want to spite call. AK on the other hand if he knows you wont fold it that may slightly effect his range. I think calling with AQ or AJ sends more of a message than T9, because the AQ/AJ you could actually incorporate into your range while T9 is clearly not a regular occurance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok I'll admit I didn't do the math, it just looked bad to me, and at best close to neutral. All depends on BJs range obviously.

I don't really put a lot of stock in this for metagame purposes, all depends on how BJ reacts in the future, but IF OP wanted to make a metagame call - AK doesn't help much.

If you are only looking at it for this tournament.
Calls like this do more to hurt both big stacks, and help the smaller stacks. If he's in the sb and I know I'm not getting a chance to open push except UTG, I'll take a near neutral EV call. In this tournament OP has position to push more than BJ does, so I don't see a good reason to make a near neutral EV (or -EV) call.

Gramps 11-15-2007 03:51 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
As alluded to, the problem is he's on your left, not your right. That makes a big, big difference for the expected EV of near-future hands.

But yeah, calling is fun to do sometimes.

billybeartku 11-15-2007 04:12 PM

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 
if you think by calling him w/ AK here will tighten up his pushing range in the future had similar situation comes up against you, you are obv wrong. You think bigjoe's gonna tighten up his range against you? c'mon, you know it's a -EV call, meaning if you keep making the this type of BIG CALL on bubble time, I'm sure you're the long time loser.


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