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-   -   2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We Come) (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=546188)

ligastar 11-15-2007 12:21 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
No I don't. The person I watched the game with tonight does and recognized your name.

Iona up next, Sunday at 6:00.

LurchySoprano 11-15-2007 12:31 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
I hate the beginning part of the season because so many games are on ESPNU or not on TV. I probably won't be able to see them play until after Thanksgiving when they head to Vegas.

tarheeljks 11-15-2007 04:15 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
Here are my thoughts:

1.) The worst officiated game I've seen in a very long time. I'm not sure who those referees were, but I hope that we never see them again this year. They were awful on both sides and totally dictated the game.

2.) My main concern tonight deals with the lack of getting the ball to the post. Deon, Alex, and Tyler combined for just 12 shots and that simply will not cut it in many games this year. We must look to get the ball inside more.

3.) Bobby Frasor makes this team MUCH better. I just feel very comfortable when he's on the floor and if he can begin to hit the open three then this team gets that much better.

4.) Wayne Ellington shut a lot of people up on this board tonight. If he continues to not only look for his jump shot, but more importantly drive to the basket, he'll be very tough for other teams to match up with.

5.) Very disappointed in Deon tonight. I'm not sure if it was first game jitters or if it was just an off night, but that was a downright awful performance. Poor hands, poor footwork and just a very poor night overall.

[/ QUOTE ]

1)agree
2/5) the game was so sloppy that the offense being set up consistently/effectively, so the # of shots being low was not a surprise. it's harder for bigs to get a lot of touches in an uptempo offense anyway, unless they have a mid range j, so i'm not surprised they were quiet.
3)agree, i don't want to see qt on the floor b/f frasor, esp when he's coming off of knee surgery.
4) agree

ultimately, they played like [censored], but i was never really too concerned about them losing b/c davidson just wasn't shooting well enough to beat us.

Assani Fisher 11-15-2007 04:52 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not one to talk about refs; however, when it is warranted I'm there every time.



[/ QUOTE ]

LOL at this sentence. So basically what you're saying is that when you feel the refs do badly you'll complain every time....but you're not one to talk about refs.

99,501 and counting

tarheeljks 11-15-2007 04:53 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not one to talk about refs; however, when it is warranted I'm there every time.



[/ QUOTE ]

LOL at this sentence. So basically what you're saying is that when you feel the refs do badly you'll complain every time....but you're not one to talk about refs.

99,501 and counting

[/ QUOTE ]

chill it's just a figure of speech.

Assani Fisher 11-15-2007 04:56 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not one to talk about refs; however, when it is warranted I'm there every time.



[/ QUOTE ]

LOL at this sentence. So basically what you're saying is that when you feel the refs do badly you'll complain every time....but you're not one to talk about refs.

99,501 and counting

[/ QUOTE ]

chill it's just a figure of speech.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I'm plenty "chilled." I just found it funny. Its like when people will begin a racist statement with "Now I'm not racist, but...."

99,500 and counting

tarheeljks 11-15-2007 05:08 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not one to talk about refs; however, when it is warranted I'm there every time.



[/ QUOTE ]

LOL at this sentence. So basically what you're saying is that when you feel the refs do badly you'll complain every time....but you're not one to talk about refs.

99,501 and counting

[/ QUOTE ]

chill it's just a figure of speech.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I'm plenty "chilled." I just found it funny. Its like when people will begin a racist statement with "Now I'm not racist, but...."

99,500 and counting

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't want to turn this into a hijack, but. . . [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] no, it doesn't really make sense to say, but it's just nitpicky to point it out. we're not writing essays here.

oh and /hijack

ligastar 11-15-2007 01:10 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not one to talk about refs; however, when it is warranted I'm there every time.



[/ QUOTE ]

LOL at this sentence. So basically what you're saying is that when you feel the refs do badly you'll complain every time....but you're not one to talk about refs.

99,501 and counting

[/ QUOTE ]


AF,

I'm the guy at the bar watching with a group of 20+ UNC fans that says, "No, they got that call right ... Lawson did travel there" when everyone else is just being a typical biased fan and thinking emotionally and not rationally about calls.

Lawson's 2nd foul was actually on Ellington and they even made the change to Ellington during the TV timeout, but for some unknown reason reversed it a minute later. Tyler's technical was a joke. Believe me I'm used to this though, after all, we play in the same conference as Duke.

Assani Fisher 11-15-2007 02:10 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
Yeah, its not a big deal....maybe a bit nittish of me.

99,464.tree and counting

ligastar 11-18-2007 07:23 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
the danny green show early against iona.

LurchySoprano 11-20-2007 03:18 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
It was expected, but it was nice to see us step on the gas early and thrash Iona. I didn't get to see the game (thanks ESPNU) but from what I've read and seen the team looked much better last night albeit against a far inferior opponent.

One thing I've read is that Deon Thompson admitted to being nervous for the Davidson games and apparently is getting used to his new body (he weighed 315+ lbs as a HS JR) but the staff still has a lot of confidence in him.

The main thing that has me hopeful so far is that our outside shooting has been strong. If we get outside shooting to go along with Tyler inside, we're going to be very difficult to beat with our much improved defense.

samsonite2100 11-20-2007 01:54 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
Thoughts on the Heels thus far--pretty much the best-looking modern-era UNC team at this point in the season. I don't remember the '05 team looking this good. People were discouraged by the Davidson squeaker, but that was a road win against basically a top 25 team sans our starting PG.

I really love this year's team--the depth, the hustle, and especially the lack of ego, which comes from Tyler and works its way down. When your consensus preseason player of the year is an egoless workhorse, the attitude is infectious. In short, I think we look like a championship team.

Thinking about going to the game tonight--apparently there are tix available...

samsonite2100 11-20-2007 01:57 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
Oh, almost forgot. F**k Dook.

LurchySoprano 11-20-2007 06:11 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts on the Heels thus far--pretty much the best-looking modern-era UNC team at this point in the season. I don't remember the '05 team looking this good. People were discouraged by the Davidson squeaker, but that was a road win against basically a top 25 team sans our starting PG.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's early, but the 2005 team absolutely blew teams off the court with the exception of the Santa Clara game. With the exception of a 7 point win @ Indiana, the 04-05 UNC team had a streak of about 2 months and 15 games when they were winning by 10+ points.

I tend to agree with your assessment that the Davidson win is underrated and that this team has a lot of potential, but they aren't as good as the 04-05 team at least at this point.

ligastar 11-20-2007 06:18 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts on the Heels thus far--pretty much the best-looking modern-era UNC team at this point in the season. I don't remember the '05 team looking this good. People were discouraged by the Davidson squeaker, but that was a road win against basically a top 25 team sans our starting PG.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's early, but the 2005 team absolutely blew teams off the court with the exception of the Santa Clara game. With the exception of a 7 point win @ Indiana, the 04-05 UNC team had a streak of about 2 months and 15 games when they were winning by 10+ points.

I tend to agree with your assessment that the Davidson win is underrated and that this team has a lot of potential, but they aren't as good as the 04-05 team at least at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree with Lurchy that the '04-'05 was lights out. We lost to Santa Clara with Felton suspended by the NCAA for the game.

As I mentioned, I'm going to the Vegas games this weekend but the much hyped L'ville/UNC game may be missing some spark.

tarheeljks 11-20-2007 06:21 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts on the Heels thus far--pretty much the best-looking modern-era UNC team at this point in the season. I don't remember the '05 team looking this good. People were discouraged by the Davidson squeaker, but that was a road win against basically a top 25 team sans our starting PG.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's early, but the 2005 team absolutely blew teams off the court with the exception of the Santa Clara game. With the exception of a 7 point win @ Indiana, the 04-05 UNC team had a streak of about 2 months and 15 games when they were winning by 10+ points.

I tend to agree with your assessment that the Davidson win is underrated and that this team has a lot of potential, but they aren't as good as the 04-05 team at least at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree with Lurchy that the '04-'05 was lights out. We lost to Santa Clara with Felton suspended by the NCAA for the game.

As I mentioned, I'm going to the Vegas games this weekend but the much hyped L'ville/UNC game may be missing some spark.

[/ QUOTE ]

w/those injuries it probably won't be much as game. if we play them in the tourney as long as louisville's pg doesn't get to shoot 30 free throws we should be able to handle them at full strength relatively easily.

keepitreal 11-24-2007 11:50 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
ligastar,
sorry you're not gonna get to see unc v l'ville.

even though a part of me wants unc to never be tested and win the national championship with ease, i really wanted to see this game.

damn mormons!

kcheel 11-24-2007 01:20 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
I am dragging this morning at work from the late start on the game last night but it was a good one. UNC is very good when they are getting consistent scoring from outside. Looking forward to tonight.

tarheeljks 11-24-2007 01:50 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
louisville wasn't going to have padgett anyway (who should actually be at unc anyway)

ligastar 11-24-2007 05:38 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
ligastar,
sorry you're not gonna get to see unc v l'ville.

even though a part of me wants unc to never be tested and win the national championship with ease, i really wanted to see this game.

damn mormons!

[/ QUOTE ]

keepitreal,

I saw the last 12 minutes of the L'ville v B.Y.U. game and B.Y.U. is the better team right now. L'ville simply couldn't rebound. The fact that they lost 2 key frontline players is really hurting them. Also, today will be L'ville's 3rd game in 4 days. B.Y.U. right now is a better challenge for the Heels tonight.

Keep an eye out for #44 Trent Plaisted (Junior, 6'11"). He had 3 dunks in the 12 minutes I saw and shot 10 for 16 for the game with 12 boards. He and Pyscho T will be doing battle tonight.

I didn't know if cameras were allowed so I didn't take mine but several ppl had cameras. Some ppl went down to a few feet off the court and got some pix of UNC during pre-game warm ups. I'll be taking my camera tonight and will have some sweet pix for the UNCs fans here.

As for the ODU game:

- ODU had a strong contingent of fans and it made for a great atmosphere. During the 2nd TV timeout I saw 3 ODU fans get kicked out of the arena.

- The guards (Lawson, Ellington, Ginyard and Frasor) played lights out. Lawson especially had a great game. He raced down the length of the court 3 times and layed it in before B.Y.U. even knew he was past them. One time he used the 7'3" B.Y.U. center as a shield all the way from 1/2 court to the basket. The tall guy didn't even know Ty was on his hip the entire time. I lol'd. When Lawson plays like he did (he was dishing some nasty inside passes, several of which Deon and Alex fumbled) we are a very difficult team to compete against.

- Deon Thompson still looks lost and inept. His defense is weak. Stepheson played with a lot of heart and I feel deserves to be in the starting line-up.

- Danny Green is instant offense and a key component in this team's continued development.

- Even though UNC shot 71% from the field, ODU played with a lot of heart and showed some grittiness on the defensive end.

- ODU's coach had the ball with 25 seconds left and elected to milk the clock down to 3 seconds before shooting to make sure UNC didn't reach triple figures in scoring.

- The Orleans Arena waitresses working the V.I.P. seating on the floor had the sluttiest outfits I've ever seen for an Arena work staff. They are like cutoff sweatshirts with the sweatshirt hanging off one of the shoulders. I'm really not sure what is stopping the sweatshirt from slipping down more and exposing their tee tas.

- Tyler comes out for pre-game warmups/stretching with Jonas with him by his side (Jonas Sahratian - Strength & Conditioning Coordinator)

- Eric Montross and Steve Kirschner (UNC's SID) were behind me in the Orleans taxi line.

Tonight's game is 10:30 eastern on ESPN2. Let's get it done Heels!

The B 11-24-2007 05:45 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
while Duke is playing back to back games vs Illinois and Marquette in Hawaii, UNC is at home playing South Carolina State and ODU (getting ready for March huh Roy? f'ing cupckae schedule)... go to hell Carolina, go to hell

ligastar 11-24-2007 05:49 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
while Duke is playing back to back games vs Illinois and Marquette in Hawaii, UNC is at home playing South Carolina State and ODU (getting ready for March huh Roy? f'ing cupckae schedule)... go to hell Carolina, go to hell

[/ QUOTE ]

The B,

You are getting old very quickly. Two years ago I was making similar posts like you and then realized how I wasn't accomplishing anything ... that I was actually making UNC fans look weak.

tarheeljks 11-24-2007 05:50 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
while Duke is playing back to back games vs Illinois and Marquette in Hawaii, UNC is at home playing South Carolina State and ODU (getting ready for March huh Roy? f'ing cupcake schedule)... go to hell Carolina, go to hell

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not our fault that louisville lost to byu.

DukeSucks 11-24-2007 07:28 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
The Orleans Arena waitresses working the V.I.P. seating on the floor had the sluttiest outfits I've ever seen for an Arena work staff. They are like cutoff sweatshirts with the sweatshirt hanging off one of the shoulders. I'm really not sure what is stopping the sweatshirt from slipping down more and exposing their tee tas.

[/ QUOTE ]

pics of this too please

capone0 11-25-2007 02:09 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
while Duke is playing back to back games vs Illinois and Marquette in Hawaii, UNC is at home playing South Carolina State and ODU (getting ready for March huh Roy? f'ing cupckae schedule)... go to hell Carolina, go to hell

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey F@G. We play @tOSU, @Kentucky the next week or two. Get over yourself. tOSU isn't that good but should be a decent test. @kentucky isn't that great but shouldn't be that bad. As others have stated, it isn't our fault that Louisville lost. BYU isn't easy anyways. Very good test tonight.

Duke has a tough OOC this year. It's not like we've scheduled cupcakes, they just aren't as good. Illinois really isn't that great this year. Marquette is good but overrated, James is probally the most overrated player in college basketball. You guys also have Pitt coming up.

ligastar 11-25-2007 06:37 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
What a gutsy performance by the team. I mentioned in the first post of this thread that we had 3 PGs and this game illustrated this fact. With Lawson going down before the first TV timeout it was critical to have experienced PGs behind them. QT and Frasor didn't play lights out but they were able to keep the offense plugging along. The team only had 10 TOs in the game.

I thought Ginyard was the key player tonight. Roy put Ginyard on Tavernnari (#45 for B.Y.U.) in the 2nd half and his offense dried up. Green was huge with 3 steals and 14 points. Stepheson keeps on impressing with 9 boards, 2 assists and 0 TOs. He battled hard inside all night.

I managed to snag a 2nd row seat behind the basket opposite the UNC bench. I was riding Plaisted (#44 for B.Y.U.) the entire 2nd half. Whenever he came in the paint I yelled, "watch the elbows #44, quit fouling #44, I'm watching you." I did this the entire half. I'm like 20 feet from him so he hears me the entire time. With about 50 seconds left I'm yelling at him during a side out and he looks over at me with this wearied look on his face. I was half expecting to see my name in the box score for my efforts. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I saw Eddie Murray (ex Baltimore Oriole) and Jerry Tarkanian during the game.

Here are some pictures I took. I would have much more but my battery died before the game.

<u>Here are the cocktail girls I was speaking about</u>

http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/d...r/DSCF0579.jpg

This excerpt is from the AP write up (note the Monroe impersonator was like 60 yrs old, lol, only in Vegas ... the girl in the middle had a crazy tramp stamp with a 4 leaf clover in the middle):

The fans got a splendid Sin City experience during the holiday weekend, complete with the Orleans' heavily tattooed arena waitresses and the Marilyn Monroe impersonator who sang the national anthem.

<u>Psycho T</u>

http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/d...r/DSCF0575.jpg

<u>Lawson warming up</u>

http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/d...r/DSCF0573.jpg

<u>Ellington tunes up the long range jumper</u>

http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/d...r/DSCF0570.jpg

<u>Frasor works on the jumper</u>

http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/d...r/DSCF0568.jpg

<u>The back of Dickie V's bald head</u>

http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/d...r/DSCF0565.jpg

LurchySoprano 11-25-2007 09:05 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
Awesome pics ligastar. Jealous that you got to see the Heels in Vegas the lats two nights.

First off, I was really impressed by BYU. Plaisted is going to make some good money playing in the NBA as he has good speed, quickness and post moves. If he ever learns to get more aggressive with the ball and start to dunk it inside instead of laying it up he could be a really good NBA player.

Second of all, we have to address the post situation. Deon Thompson had zero rebounds in 20 minutes, which simply will not get it done. I'm not sure if we need to give him more time or if we should strongly consider starting Stepheson or Green, but something needs to be done with that. To be honest, I miss Deon when he weighed about 30 more pounds.

Danny Green and Ginyard are both playing so well and doing the many little things that it takes to win. I love the fact that we have two glue guys who contribute so many things to the team that don't show up in the stat sheets. Green has improved his decision making a lot this year IMO.

I've not been that impressed with us so far this year, but the fact that we are beating quality opponents while playing our C game is a good sign for the rest of the year. We beat a team that will be seeded somewhere between a 7-10 seed in the NCAA tournament without our starting PG pretty much.

tarheeljks 11-25-2007 09:09 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
agreed lurchy. i think deon thompson should be benched until he learns to rebound/defend in the post, i would rather keep green coming off of the bench b/c he's a good spark.

Aces McGee 11-25-2007 09:14 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
First off, I was really impressed by BYU. Plaisted is going to make some good money playing in the NBA as he has good speed, quickness and post moves. If he ever learns to get more aggressive with the ball and start to dunk it inside instead of laying it up he could be a really good NBA player.

[/ QUOTE ]

He holds the ball too long before he makes his move. And he shows too much of the ball when he faces up.

-McGee

ligastar 11-26-2007 07:03 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
Basketball Prospectus article on Tar Heels' defense

Aces McGee 11-26-2007 10:33 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
Basketball Prospectus article on Tar Heels' defense

[/ QUOTE ]

Are points-per-possession stats available anywhere on a game-by-game basis?

-McGee

Pudge714 11-26-2007 10:40 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
liga,
I was going to post that [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] basketball prospectus

ligastar 11-27-2007 04:59 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Basketball Prospectus article on Tar Heels' defense

[/ QUOTE ]

Are points-per-possession stats available anywhere on a game-by-game basis?

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I'm aware of. I just looked around on kenpom and didn't see it.

tarheeljks 11-27-2007 05:05 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
sweet link liga, sending this to all of my duke/unc hating buddies.

ligastar 11-28-2007 02:51 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
Tar Heel Blue Ohio St. Preview (Heels favored by 5.5 pts) - ESPN, 9pm

Edit to say: Indications are that Lawson will go tonight.

samsonite2100 11-28-2007 04:23 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
Tar Heel Blue Ohio St. Preview (Heels favored by 5.5 pts) - ESPN, 9pm

Edit to say: Indications are that Lawson will go tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome. I got to sit third row at the S. Carolina St. game--I know it goes w/out saying, but it truly is insane how fast Ty is. Seeing it live and up close is incredible.

capone0 11-28-2007 10:57 PM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
Gah. F-in luckboxes. I can't stand Frasor starting tonight. Diebler, wtf.

Aces McGee 11-29-2007 01:54 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
[ QUOTE ]
Basketball Prospectus article on Tar Heels' defense

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, all, I gotta come back to this, because it's been bugging me for a couple of years now.

(First, a disclaimer. Or, rather, two disclaimers. One, this post is probably going to be long. Two, I haven't followed any of the Ken Pom discussion on the message boards, so I may very well be making an argument that has been put forth and summarily dismissed. I apologize if that's the case, and Ebenhoe can ban me for rehashing an old argument if there's enough support for it).

While I recognize that SABRmetric-style stats -- like the ones popularized by Ken Pom and the one cited in that Basketball Prospectus article -- have more utility than traditional "per game" stats, it irritates me that they've seemingly taken the place of good old-fashioned observation.

The article asserts that Carolina played the best defense in the ACC last year and probably will again this year. I say "No way!" to both, and not because of any statistic. I don't need statistics to tell me that a team just down Tobacco Road from Chapel Hill is a much better defensive team than the Heels. (I don't use Duke as an example to patronize UNC fans, or because I'm a Blue Devils fan -- I'm not; rather, they're just a team that I've seen a few times this year that plays truly excellent defense).

I can see with my own eyes how Duke rotates on defense, how they defend ball screens extremely well, how their bigger guys like Kyle Singler take excellent angles when they are switched to smaller, quicker players, diverting guards away from the basket and into the teeth of the rest of the defense. It's similarly easy for me to see that these are all things that Carolina doesn't do well.

I don't want to focus too much on this season thus far, because the three times I've seen Carolina (vs. Davidson in
Charlotte, vs. BYU in Vegas, and at Ohio St. tonight in Columbus) they've basically been without Ty Lawson (once because of early foul trouble, twice due to an ankle injury that limited him to two minutes against BYU and kept him out tonight against the Buckeyes, who, incidentally, haven't been able to throw the ball in the ocean in their last two outings). The jury is still very much out on this year's team, although it appears that Roy Williams -- Carolina's notoriously offensive-minded coach -- would agree that his team's defense isn't yet adequate (SI article).

But let's go back to last year, and to something the Basketball Prospectus article touches on:

"As seen above, I think part of that is simply due to the way they look while they play. Another part, of course, is
the speed at which they play. Roy Williams' teams, whether in Chapel Hill or in Lawrence, have always played fast. It's tougher to spot a good defensive team that plays fast, just as it's tougher to spot a bad defensive team that goes slow."

The Tar Heels do, indeed, play fast. And against many opponents, that is all the defense they need. Having played a little basketball myself (admittedly at the low high school and AAU level) and watched quite a bit more, I am very familiar with the negative effect that playing fast has on team's that aren't used to it. Suddenly in a hurry, teams get caught up in the tempo of the game, rushing shots
and making poor passes.

Where this strategy falls short -- and where I believe Ken Pom's stats are ultimately deceiving because they don't seem to take this into account -- is when Carolina (or any team whose main defensive weapon is pace) comes up against an opponent that plays at that pace itself, or an opponent with solid, experienced guards, or an opponent that plays fast and has solid, experienced guards. In those cases, the opposition's ballhandlers don't rush their shots and don't make bad decisions, because they're comfortable with the pace of the game.

This would go a long way to explaining many of Carolina's losses last year to teams with lesser offensive talent: Maryland, thanks to their athletic bigs and inability to score in the halfcourt, preferred a fast-paced game last year; Virginia Tech, to whom North Carolina lost twice, boasted a poised and experienced backcourt in seniors Jamon Gordon and Zabian Dowdell (Let's remember that Illinois, a team widely considered to be very sound defensively but that played at a relatively slow pace last year, had Tech completely flummoxed in last year's NCAA Tournament before a late run gave the Hokies the narrow first-round victory); and Gonzaga, which beat Carolina at Madison Square Garden in last year's Preseason NIT semifinals, had a deep, experienced backcourt that liked to get up and down the court as much as the Heels did.

My point is not that Carolina's defense isn't good enough to win games -- a lot of games -- in the ACC. I'm not saying they're like VMI, whose defensive strategy is seemingly to allow the opposition to make a two in order to get the ball back to shoot a three. The Heels have now, always have had, and always will have the size and athleticism to get by without being sound defensively just by playing fast. It's enough to beat the Georgia Techs and Wake Forests and Florida States all winter long, and put up good defensive numbers in doing so.

My point is that not all teams are like Tech and Wake and FSU, and that Carolina struggled against certain kinds of teams last year and will probably continue to this year unless something changes. There are teams that are comfortable playing at that pace, and if I had to choose a team to go up against them, I'd rather take one that has defensive qualities which I can point to and say "That's what makes them a good defensive team." Whenever someone tries to tell me that Carolina is very good defensively, they show me statistics. Those statistics are not going to beat Memphis in March. Sound defense will, and I haven't seen it from Carolina.

-McGee

tarheeljks 11-29-2007 03:31 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
aces: i'm not really following you. yes unc had matchup problems against certain squads-- this does not preclude them from being a a good defensive team. regardless of a team's style of play or make up there will always be another team that poses a match up problem. your anecdotal evidence regarding defensive rotation is a perfect example of exactly what this article means to disprove-- you don't have to play a slow, grinding game to defend well. citing two defensive lapses hardly discredits this article and it seems like your examples are missing the point of the article. more importantly note that 4 of the games unc lost last year (va tech, ga tech, nc state, and maryland) were on the road, where pomus concedes that the heels were much weaker defensively.

obv i'm biased here but offering up a handful of examples of poor defensive performances is pretty lol. the points per possession stat captures the essence of defense, . carolina's struggles last year were a function of streaky jumpshooting and youth much more so than defensive issues (though the youth was likely a factor in the disparity in home vs road play).

basically it sounds like you have said is "i don't care what this guy's numbers say, they don't look like a good defensive team to me." that's fine but support that w/something other than "i just don't agree."

edit: also, i'm interested to hear what you think this stat is missing regarding defensive performance. the only thing i can think of is something like adjustments based on opponent strength; something like the dova rankings in football.

Aces McGee 11-29-2007 03:50 AM

Re: 2007-08 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball (San Antonio Here We C
 
Hey man,

I gotta go to bed. And, unfortunately, I've picked a bad time to start this, as I'll probably be unavailable to properly discuss it tomorrow as well. But I will come back to it, because I think you haven't grasped what I'm trying to say -- which could easily be my fault -- and I think it's an interesting conversation, not just as it pertains to Carolina, but to these kinds of statistics in general. Maybe someone will pick up my case in the interim.

-McGee


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