Re: uh-oh
 

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i folded. as did the other moron.

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Silly moron. I was sure he'd call.

If Villain didn't show a bluff, though, I doubt he was bluffing. The amount of action/tilt you could achieve by showing a bluff here is through the roof. And it's not like you're going to be making a fold like that in the future anyway, is it? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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imo showing a bluff here would be very bad.

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Perhaps not . . . but can you blame me for trying to make you feel better? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: uh-oh
 

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i folded. as did the other moron.

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Silly moron. I was sure he'd call.

If Villain didn't show a bluff, though, I doubt he was bluffing. The amount of action/tilt you could achieve by showing a bluff here is through the roof. And it's not like you're going to be making a fold like that in the future anyway, is it? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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imo showing a bluff here would be very bad.

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Perhaps not . . . but can you blame me for trying to make you feel better? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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i appreciate the effort.

Re: uh-oh
 

nh bob

Re: uh-oh
 

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Thanks vma. I wondered about KQ as well when I was posting.

I'm a bit surprised to see you discount QJ so heavily. If your range is correct, the pbob always has a made hand when he caps the flop. Given how easily exploited that is, I'd be surprised to see a good player not add about the right number of draws to his capping range, especially given that it costs so little getting 2:1 on his money.

So, to sum up... it's pretty clear that calling here is the "default" play, and folding is exploitable but arguably correct since it's so difficult for villain to bluff-raise the "correct" amount here.

It's fun to wonder though... what is pokerbob's flop capping range really? Care to give us some insight pbob?

thanks,
Eric

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i have KT or 33 here nearly always.

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How long have you been playing together? Does the villian know what you know... i.e. you always have set or top two here???

Re: uh-oh
 

a bluff from sb here while not impossible is a very sophisticated play and not worth worrying about. this is an easy fold.

c/ring the turn is better than capping the flop.

Re: uh-oh
 

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a bluff from sb here while not impossible is a very sophisticated play and not worth worrying about. this is an easy fold.



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exactly what i thought.

Re: uh-oh
 

I don't think you're winning this hand enough times. I just don't. I'd say you're going to be shown QcJc, or KcXc over 97% of the time here.

Also... When someone hestitates on the flop like that, only to quickly call the turn, it often means they picked up (in this case), a flush draw.

Re: uh-oh
 

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Tough spot.

IMO, villain has made it clear that he may not call a raise. He's been looking for an excuse to fold this whole hand, and this may well push him over the edge. So you can't really count on the 3rd guy to eat up a lot of that 90% you need between you.

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I haven't played live a ton, but I got the exact opposite impression. This guy has deliberated, called, deliberated, called, deliberated, called. For him to fold on the end getting 16:1 and not get to see his opponent's cards, after all that pain he's put himself through, just seems really unlikely to me.

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I guess we'll see in the results! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

From a game theory POV, your read is important though... if 3rd guy will always call, then we can fold 33 unexploitably. Given that our hand is in the top echelon of our possible holdings though, we have to quite sure the 3rd guy is calling before we can think about folding.

I don't think we can be that sure, so I call.

-eric

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I don't understand:

Why would 3rd guy calling make you more inclined to fold? pbob's gonna have 3rd beat an overwhelming percentage of the time. If anything, I would be MORE inclined to call if I thought 3rd guy would call due to the extra bet overlay I'd be receiving. Please explain.

Re: uh-oh
 

bc if we are expecting the other guy to not fold even after the c/r then sb bluffing here would be even more incredibly unlikely than it already is?

Re: uh-oh
 

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bc if we are expecting the other guy to not fold even after the c/r then sb bluffing here would be even more incredibly unlikely than it already is?

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In other words, if we are expecting the other guy to call, then the sb must expect the same thing, therefore he's not bluffing? Do I understand correctly that this is what you're saying?

I still say the other guy doesn't matter at all, bc we have him beat almost 100% of the time. The only consideration is whether or not the sb is bluffing (or if he could think his hand beats OP's). Personally, I think this will be less than 3% of the time, so a fold is in order.

Although, I will say that I've made plays like this where I thought the good player in the hand would think I can't be c/r bluffing the river bc the pot is protected by a 3rd player. But this is only when I'm quite certain I have the 3rd player beat, but not the good player. It's a risky play to make, but can be worth it if the pot is big, which it certainly is here.

Re: uh-oh
 

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Do I understand correctly that this is what you're saying?


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yes

Re: uh-oh
 

Why should we think that MP will call the river c/r? From PokerBob's description of the hand, we should be more inclined to believe that MP won't call. Assuming that the SB noticed the same reactions from MP, if anyone is going to call the river raise, it is going to have to be PokerBob.

Re: uh-oh
 

I think you're beat...

However, based on your assessment of what the SB MUST know about your play... you have to assume that he knows you have an above average hand (top two, set, ect...).

I HATE the idea of a good player at the table (especially at this level) KNOWING that you'll muck an above average hand for one bet or one C/R. That's pretty scary.

Usually I think "meta-game" arguments are just excuses to do lose crazy stuff... but in this case I think you need to show-down for one bet.

You don't really want to give this guy a license to take shots across your bow in every 15 BB pot do you? :-)

Re: uh-oh
 

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I think you're beat...

However, based on your assessment of what the SB MUST know about your play... you have to assume that he knows you have an above average hand (top two, set, ect...).

I HATE the idea of a good player at the table (especially at this level) KNOWING that you'll muck an above average hand for one bet or one C/R. That's pretty scary.

Usually I think "meta-game" arguments are just excuses to do lose crazy stuff... but in this case I think you need to show-down for one bet.

You don't really want to give this guy a license to take shots across your bow in every 15 BB pot do you? :-)

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I do not think that folding here is exploitable. In order for SB's play to work as a bluff, many many things must come together prefectly. He needs to be in a position where he (a) has a hand that can call preflop AND (b) withstand all the flop action AND (c) manage to see the river AND (d) have the turn and river fall in such a way that a good player in the BB can reasonably deduce that he has a flush AND (e) MP has to have hand that he clearly doesn't like. This simply doesn't happen very often.

Folding here may actually be beneficial, as some may notice this fold and start taking shots in spots where I would never ever fold.

Re: uh-oh
 

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Folding here may actually be beneficial, as some may notice this fold and start taking shots in spots where I would never ever fold.

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1st- I don't think that's the case since you are pretty frickin tight / standard / aggressive and not the type of player people tend to get jiggy with...

However, this does bring up an interesting strategy argument... if you make what I would consider a pretty monster fold here for one bet.... do you show?

by showing, this will probably accomplish your goal from above (more people taking more shots at you in situations where you won't fold and hence you winz more monies)

... then again, by showing, you might be setting yourself up for a MUCH tougher session where you have to decide repeatedly if people are coming at you with the goods or a bluff???

Re: uh-oh
 

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Folding here may actually be beneficial, as some may notice this fold and start taking shots in spots where I would never ever fold.

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1st- I don't think that's the case since you are pretty frickin tight / standard / aggressive and not the type of player people tend to get jiggy with...

However, this does bring up an interesting strategy argument... if you make what I would consider a pretty monster fold here for one bet.... do you show?

by showing, this will probably accomplish your goal from above (more people taking more shots at you in situations where you won't fold and hence you winz more monies)

... then again, by showing, you might be setting yourself up for a MUCH tougher session where you have to decide repeatedly if people are coming at you with the goods or a bluff???

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there is no point in showing when everyone in the building knows what i got.

Re: uh-oh
 

showing when you fold here is tilt

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Folding here may actually be beneficial, as some may notice this fold and start taking shots in spots where I would never ever fold.

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1st- I don't think that's the case since you are pretty frickin tight / standard / aggressive and not the type of player people tend to get jiggy with...

However, this does bring up an interesting strategy argument... if you make what I would consider a pretty monster fold here for one bet.... do you show?

by showing, this will probably accomplish your goal from above (more people taking more shots at you in situations where you won't fold and hence you winz more monies)

... then again, by showing, you might be setting yourself up for a MUCH tougher session where you have to decide repeatedly if people are coming at you with the goods or a bluff???

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there is no point in showing when everyone in the building knows what i got.

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I agree that showing is kind of a rookie move... but... consider the following:

In just about everyone of your posts (pokerbob) you always seem to be working on the same assumptions:

A) everyone at the table always knows and realizes how well you play

B) everyone at the table knows and realizes how tight you are

C) everyone at the table reads hands and hand ranges as well as you do...

I think maybe you should consider that there are hundreds of players you have / will play with that are not in the "know" (thank god).

I'm actually NOT trying to pick a fight with you here (rare)... but I think if you reflect on your "standard" post... you give people A LOT of credit in a strange way.

Re: uh-oh
 

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Folding here may actually be beneficial, as some may notice this fold and start taking shots in spots where I would never ever fold.

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1st- I don't think that's the case since you are pretty frickin tight / standard / aggressive and not the type of player people tend to get jiggy with...

However, this does bring up an interesting strategy argument... if you make what I would consider a pretty monster fold here for one bet.... do you show?

by showing, this will probably accomplish your goal from above (more people taking more shots at you in situations where you won't fold and hence you winz more monies)

... then again, by showing, you might be setting yourself up for a MUCH tougher session where you have to decide repeatedly if people are coming at you with the goods or a bluff???

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there is no point in showing when everyone in the building knows what i got.

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I agree that showing is kind of a rookie move... but... consider the following:

In just about everyone of your posts (pokerbob) you always seem to be working on the same assumptions:

A) everyone at the table always knows and realizes how well you play

B) everyone at the table knows and realizes how tight you are

C) everyone at the table reads hands and hand ranges as well as you do...

I think maybe you should consider that there are hundreds of players you have / will play with that are not in the "know" (thank god).

I'm actually NOT trying to pick a fight with you here (rare)... but I think if you reflect on your "standard" post... you give people A LOT of credit in a strange way.

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i am not sure how your post has anything to do with the fact that anyone with any combination of brains and lhe ability knows exactly what my hand is. but, i'll respond anyway.

a.) i am well aware that most (at least on this forum) have no idea how good i am. it only works to my advantage, and provides comic relief for me and my friends.

b.) you have played with me for maybe 20 hands. you have no idea if i am tight or not.

c.) the players in this hand in question both hand read well. obviously they don't read hands as well as I do, but then again how could they?

i am well aware that there are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of players who are not in the "know". i see it every time i open up 2+2.

Re: uh-oh
 

I have never showed a big laydown in my life and don't ever plan on doing so.

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<font color="blue"> I think maybe you should consider that there are hundreds of players you have / will play with that are not in the "know" (thank god). </font>

And although pbob would never admit it, he might one day run into someone who actually plays better than he does! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[edit:] And I posted this even before reading pbob's response below! Maybe I'm the one who's really good at reads?

Re: uh-oh
 

Calling is your only play here. Seems pretty standard.

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i folded. as did the other moron.

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Silly moron. I was sure he'd call.

If Villain didn't show a bluff, though, I doubt he was bluffing. The amount of action/tilt you could achieve by showing a bluff here is through the roof. And it's not like you're going to be making a fold like that in the future anyway, is it? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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imo showing a bluff here would be very bad.

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indeed. In NL, getting away with a bluff this ballsy and showing it is good, not in limit.

Re: uh-oh
 

In this spot I don't think 3rd guy matters, except to help you narrow down the range of the SB in this case. If SB is observant, he can definitely see the same factors that we see in the MP player... ie he hates his hand--specifically either A-K, but more likely K-Q.

The fact of the matter is that we, hero that is, hasn't faced any pressure over the course of the hand. MP never folding isn't our concern here. We have him beat--the question is is the SB making a squeeze play here against us b/c he knows that MP wants to fold, but is hoping we don't know MP wants to fold! Thus squeezing us out and getting MP to fold as well? Another thought here is that he could be squeezing us out with what he thinks is the 2nd best hand, but one he is sure beats MP?

Coupled with the relative strength of our hand... I see no way you could fold here. Based on our range, the MP's possible range, and the SB's range... I think a call is in order and a high percentage of the time we are going to get shown Q-Jc.

However, I don't think that we will see this hand as often as everyone is thinking we will see it here. I don't see congruently over the course of the entire hand, how a player supposed as good as the SB would of played this hand so passively? If he is tight-aggressive, why isn't he check-raising the flop in a 3 way pot? Or possibly, why not check-raise the turn for value when he turns the godzilla draw?

In conclusion, I think you are going to see air or a strong 2nd best hand here often enough that you can't possibly fold here.

Re: uh-oh
 

In this spot I don't think 3rd guy matters, except to help you narrow down the range of the SB in this case. If SB is observant, he can definitely see the same factors that we see in the MP player... ie he hates his hand--specifically either A-K, but more likely K-Q.

The fact of the matter is that we, hero that is, hasn't faced any pressure over the course of the hand, since the flop (I'm assuming this is a hand played at the Commerce, where capping the flop light is a common play). MP never folding isn't our concern here. We have him beat--the question is is the SB making a squeeze play here against us b/c he knows that MP wants to fold, but is hoping we don't know MP wants to fold! Thus squeezing us out and getting MP to fold as well? Another thought here is that he could be squeezing us out with what he thinks is the 2nd best hand, but one he is sure beats MP?

Coupled with the relative strength of our hand... I see no way you could fold here. Based on our range, the MP's possible range, and the SB's range... I think a call is in order and a high percentage of the time we are going to get shown Q-Jc.

However, I don't think that we will see this hand as often as everyone is thinking we will see it here. I don't see congruently over the course of the entire hand, how a player supposed as good as the SB would of played this hand so passively? If he is tight-aggressive, why isn't he check-raising the flop in a 4 way pot? Or possibly, why not check-raise the turn for value when he turns the godzilla draw?

In conclusion, I think you are going to see air or a strong 2nd best hand here often enough that you can't possibly fold here.

Re: uh-oh
 

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Or possibly, why not check-raise the turn for value when he turns the godzilla draw?

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because that would be awful. BB ain't folding anything on the turn and may even 3bet.

Re: uh-oh
 

Fair enough, w/o position he may not make that play. However, his flop play doesn't seem to follow a strong draw like q-jc. I saw someone mention that j-9c could be possible... that seems more likely here. But all in all, if he is as good as you say--he could easily be trying to exploit your poor relative position in this hand on the river? Or he could be slow playing a good in this case 2nd best hand?

How long had you been playing with this player? Have you shown down only good cards, played in a straightforward manner? In general, what is his read of you, and would he make a play based on this read and the MP being behind you?