Re: Week 10 Rank\'em
 

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<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
1. Ohio State (10-0) 1 2823 0.9993 1 1493 0.9953 1 99 0.990 0.9949 1
2. LSU (8-1) 2 2640 0.9345 2 1393 0.9287 2 96 0.960 0.9411 3
3. Oregon (8-1) 3 2590 0.9168 3 1376 0.9173 3 92 0.920 0.9180 5</pre><hr />

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Oregon is probably better than LSU, but hey whatever, I'll support a broken system if it puts LSU in the title game.

The idea that we rely on humans to pick who the best teams are is nuts though.

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Missouri has crushed two teams that were ranked in the top 25 when they played (Texas Tech and Nebraska).

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This is the dumbest logic ever for giving a team credit. Who cares where a team WAS ranked. Who CANT crush Nebraska? Texas Tech is decent but clearly not deserving of being ranked.

Interesting is that the Sagarin predictor puts Missouri at #9, and West Virginia at #4.

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I was doing it for comparative purposes. You'll notice I did the same for WVU. By the way, here is a list of the Mountaineers' opponents so far.

Western Michigan
Marshall
Maryland
East Carolina
South Florida
Syracuse
Mississippi State
Rutgers

South Florida was their toughest game. However, they lost that one. What is their second toughest game? Mississippi State? Rutgers?

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What's their average margin of victory? Like 40 points? The only game WV lost, it was when their QB got hurt in the 2nd quarter, and they still almost won. I would love to get a bet on WV vs. Missouri, even WV -3. Don't get me wrong, Missouri is a good team. But you can't just look at who they have played.

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WVU's average margin of victory = 30.714
MU's average margin of victory = 24.125

Also, MU's strength of schedule is 53rd toughest, WVU's is 62nd toughest. The more I look at it, the more I think they are really, really even.

WVU -3 at a neutral site? I would definitely take the points.

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The difference maker is also that WV had injuries in their loss too. Sagarin Predictor has the difference as about 3.5 points.

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Yeah, and it also has MU as a four point dog to KU. Would you lay the points in that game?

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Probably Kansas.

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Fair enough. KU's SOS is 107. Appalachian State's SOS is 109.

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Missouri has crushed two teams that were ranked in the top 25 when they played (Texas Tech and Nebraska).

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This is the dumbest logic ever for giving a team credit. Who cares where a team WAS ranked. Who CANT crush Nebraska? Texas Tech is decent but clearly not deserving of being ranked.

Interesting is that the Sagarin predictor puts Missouri at #9, and West Virginia at #4.

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I was doing it for comparative purposes. You'll notice I did the same for WVU. By the way, here is a list of the Mountaineers' opponents so far.

Western Michigan
Marshall
Maryland
East Carolina
South Florida
Syracuse
Mississippi State
Rutgers

South Florida was their toughest game. However, they lost that one. What is their second toughest game? Mississippi State? Rutgers?

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What's their average margin of victory? Like 40 points? The only game WV lost, it was when their QB got hurt in the 2nd quarter, and they still almost won. I would love to get a bet on WV vs. Missouri, even WV -3. Don't get me wrong, Missouri is a good team. But you can't just look at who they have played.

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WVU's average margin of victory = 30.714
MU's average margin of victory = 24.125

Also, MU's strength of schedule is 53rd toughest, WVU's is 62nd toughest. The more I look at it, the more I think they are really, really even.

WVU -3 at a neutral site? I would definitely take the points.

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The difference maker is also that WV had injuries in their loss too. Sagarin Predictor has the difference as about 3.5 points.

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Yeah, and it also has MU as a four point dog to KU. Would you lay the points in that game?

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Probably Kansas.

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Fair enough. KU's SOS is 107. Appalachian State's SOS is 109.

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And App State has 1 loss too. Why is there so much of a hangup on SOS?

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Because it's a lot easier to go undefeated if you play a bunch of creampuffs.

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Because it's a lot easier to go undefeated if you play a bunch of creampuffs.

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Wow, who would have guessed, capt. obvious. It still is only one very small measure in which team is better.

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Ok great....tell me why KU is better than MU.

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You asked an obvious question....you'll get an obvious answer.

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Tell me what measures you take into account when determining which team is better. Also, what weights do you give each measure?

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Ok great....tell me why KU is better than MU.

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Kansas has the 2nd best scoring defense in the country. Missouri is around 40th.

Kansas has the 2nd best scoring offense in the country. Missouri has about the 6th.

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Ok great....tell me why KU is better than MU.

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I'm a complete moron. When I read this I was like, "Kutztown is clearly equal to Millersvile." Ugh...DII football does rule though.

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Ok great....tell me why KU is better than MU.

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Kansas has the 2nd best scoring defense in the country. Missouri is around 40th.

Kansas has the 2nd best scoring offense in the country. Missouri has about the 6th.

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If Kansas had played only high school junior varsity teams, would that diminish their statistical accomplishments in your opinion?

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Ok great....tell me why KU is better than MU.

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Kansas has the 2nd best scoring defense in the country. Missouri is around 40th.

Kansas has the 2nd best scoring offense in the country. Missouri has about the 6th.

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If Kansas had played only high school junior varsity teams, would that diminish their statistical accomplishments in your opinion?

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Of course. You take it into account. It's not the only variable I use. Just like SOS and record should not be the only variable you use.

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KU's SOS is 107. Appalachian State's SOS is 109.

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You really buy into this crap? Sure 5 of the games were really easy but @KSU, @CU, and @aTm is as good a set of wins as just about anyone in the country. Add an undefeated record to that and I don't see how you can justify any hate at this point. And if all that's not enough consider that we didn't just play 5 "creampuffs", but we also beat all of them by 40-50 pts which is a pretty big deal.

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Missouri has crushed two teams that were ranked in the top 25 when they played (Texas Tech and Nebraska).

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This is the dumbest logic ever for giving a team credit. Who cares where a team WAS ranked .

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Richard Billingsley, whose ranking system is part of the BCS.

From his own description of his system:

"THE MIND SET OF THE GAME, THE INTENSITY OF THE GAME, REVOLVED AROUND PLAYING A #1 TEAM. How can the mind set and intensity of a game be overlooked 4 weeks later? But critics will say "but what if Georgia fell to #50, do the Gators still get credit for playing a #1 team?" Very good point. It does happen. Rankings can fluctuate dramatically during the course of a season. Look at Alabama in 2000.

Several years ago I made a compromise that I think has worked exceptionally well. I use a combination of both, with percentages tilted slightly towards the game day rating and rank. This way both are taken into account. The current rankings are not totally discounted but more credit is given to the original "mind set and intensity" of the game."

Full description of his crappy system

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No BCS conference team has ever gone undefeated and been excluded for a 1 loss team.

Undefeated NON-BCS conference teams have been excluded for 1 loss BCS schools.

Undefeated BCS schools have been excluded for OTHER UNDEFEATED BCS schools.

but thus far no undefeated BCS conference school has been screwed over in favor of a 1 loss team

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They won't be this year either. Kansas does have a pretty weak schedule to this point (even their "best win" vs. KSU looks a lot weaker after KSU lost to Iowa State), but it will look much, much stronger after the Jayhawks play Missouri and Oklahoma. If KU's undefeated with wins over those teams, they're &gt;90% to play for the title even if Ohio State, LSU, and Oregon all win out.

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They won't be this year either. Kansas does have a pretty weak schedule to this point (even their "best win" vs. KSU looks a lot weaker after KSU lost to Iowa State), but it will look much, much stronger after the Jayhawks play Missouri and Oklahoma. If KU's undefeated with wins over those teams, they're &gt;90% to play for the title even if Ohio State, LSU, and Oregon all win out.

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yes, forget about the computers the pollsters will be all over their nuts and thats all it will take

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Don't worry, Kansas won't be winning out. Just go ahead and assume they have one loss even if it comes in the title game.

@Oklahoma St. - They beat Texas, they could beat KU.
Missouri - Has a good shot at beating KU.
Title game...

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Don't worry, Kansas won't be winning out. Just go ahead and assume they have one loss even if it comes in the title game.

@Oklahoma St. - They beat Texas, they could beat KU.
Missouri - Has a good shot at beating KU.
Title game...

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Go Kansas!

Damn, imagine if Kansas ends up being national champions. don't say it can't happen.

question for those who are good point setters

suppose OSU was playing Michigan this week instead of next (it's at Michigan) -- what is the point spread?

-4.5 OSU sound about right?

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Yeah, that sounds pretty accurate. If I were to guess, I'd say it opens at -5, and gets bet down to maybe -4 by kickoff.

With that said, I've got a strong feeling Michigan's going to pull the upset. This is pretty much the same offense that put up 38 points on the Buckeyes last year, and the Big House is going to be crazy. I say a last-second TD gives it to Michigan 27-26.

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From a perspective of tarnishing the current BCS system; what would be worse - undefeated OSU playing undefeated Kansas for the National title?

Or a controversy over OSU vs one of LSU and Oregon with one loss each?

As someone who watches this stuff develop from across the Atlantic - it baffles me as to why there isn't a playoff system in place for the National Championship admitting at least 8 teams for a post season.

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LuckyLloyd,

In my opinion, the latter scenario would be more controversial, especially when something like that has happened in the past and people were all up in arms about it.

Thing is, if there was no BCS and the two championship teams were just selected by polls, either of those scenarios could happen fairly easily.

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suppose OSU was playing Michigan this week instead of next (it's at Michigan) -- what is the point spread?

-4.5 OSU sound about right?

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I think it'd be higher given Henne and Hart injuries. I'd say -6.5, maybe even across the 7.

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Don't worry, Kansas won't be winning out. Just go ahead and assume they have one loss even if it comes in the title game.

@Oklahoma St. - They beat Texas, they could beat KU.
Missouri - Has a good shot at beating KU.
Title game...

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Uh... no they didn't. In any case, I give Kansas about a 10% chance of going undefeated.

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Yeah, that sounds pretty accurate. If I were to guess, I'd say it opens at -5, and gets bet down to maybe -4 by kickoff.

With that said, I've got a strong feeling Michigan's going to pull the upset. This is pretty much the same offense that put up 38 points on the Buckeyes last year, and the Big House is going to be crazy. I say a last-second TD gives it to Michigan 27-26.

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You are forgetting that the Ohio State defense is a ton better this year than last. You are also forgetting that Michigan's last TD and 2 point conversion came in their miracle attempts to come back. You are also forgetting that the field was destroyed from rain and previous games and it made it very difficult for defenses to do much in the game.

Add in the Henne and Hart injury situation, the addition of Beanie Wells as our main running back, and I see value up to -7.

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I think tOSU is solid this year, but I still don't really know where they are compared to other top 10 schools since they still really haven't played anyone that good. Even if they do crush Michigan on the road, Michigan (I'm a UM fan) is really not that good this year.

SOS is 62 in the country in comparison, Oregon and LSU are #13 and #12 respectively according to Saragin. Honestly I think there both better with Oregon being the best team in the country right now in my eyes. It's hard to pick them over a 0 loss team in a big conference though.

Honestly a win a PSU is a decent win, a win vs Wisconsin is decent but neither is really that great. Also their d is good but what Os have they played. And I'm not talking about Os that ran up the score OOC, I'm talking about teams that can actually score against anyone. tOSU D was good last year until they played UF and Michigan, then they didn't seem all that great.

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LuckyLloyd,

In my opinion, the latter scenario would be more controversial, especially when something like that has happened in the past and people were all up in arms about it.

Thing is, if there was no BCS and the two championship teams were just selected by polls, either of those scenarios could happen fairly easily.

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Thanks for the reply. It just seems to me that Kansas and OSU playing for a national title would be ridiculous when their schedules are compared to that of LSU. And I know people will argue that some of the wins that OSU and Kansas have racked up are genuinely impressive - but Younstown State; Kent State; Akron and Central Michigan; Southern Louisiana; Toledo are essentially freebies that help to pad the record and allow teams to build confidence and ease into the season.

The system just doesn't make any sense to me.

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Don't worry, Kansas won't be winning out. Just go ahead and assume they have one loss even if it comes in the title game.

@Oklahoma St. - They beat Texas, they could beat KU.
Missouri - Has a good shot at beating KU.
Title game...

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Uh... no they didn't. In any case, I give Kansas about a 10% chance of going undefeated.

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10% is pretty close, probably a tad low.

70% to beat OSU
100% to beat ISU
50% to beat MU

That's 35% to be undefeated going into the game against OU. I would think at that point they're better than 28% against OU on a neutral field.

But 10% is pretty close.

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LuckyLloyd,

In my opinion, the latter scenario would be more controversial, especially when something like that has happened in the past and people were all up in arms about it.

Thing is, if there was no BCS and the two championship teams were just selected by polls, either of those scenarios could happen fairly easily.

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Thanks for the reply. It just seems to me that Kansas and OSU playing for a national title would be ridiculous when their schedules are compared to that of LSU. And I know people will argue that some of the wins that OSU and Kansas have racked up are genuinely impressive - but Younstown State; Kent State; Akron and Central Michigan; Southern Louisiana; Toledo are essentially freebies that help to pad the record and allow teams to build confidence and ease into the season.

The system just doesn't make any sense to me.

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lsu has 3 cupcakes also

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They also play in the SEC. I used to be down on the SEC but it is very hard to win each week on the road. The same can't be said for the Big 10 at all atleast right now. tOSU, Michigan are good and tOSU might be great, the rest of the Big 10 is decent but not anything special in comparison to the SEC/Pac-10 right now.

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Don't worry, Kansas won't be winning out. Just go ahead and assume they have one loss even if it comes in the title game.

@Oklahoma St. - They beat Texas, they could beat KU.
Missouri - Has a good shot at beating KU.
Title game...

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Uh... no they didn't. In any case, I give Kansas about a 10% chance of going undefeated.

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10% is pretty close, probably a tad low.

70% to beat OSU
100% to beat ISU
50% to beat MU

That's 35% to be undefeated going into the game against OU. I would think at that point they're better than 28% against OU on a neutral field.

But 10% is pretty close.

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100% to beat ISU? The team that just beat KSU and almost beat Oklahoma? 90% is more likely. You will be about 17 point favorites in that game according to Sagarin.

You are only 5 point favorites @ Okie State- probably closer to 60 or 65% there. I haven't seen the money lines, so check there.

50% to beat MU is probably about right. That would mean you need 37% or better to beat Oklahoma to reach 10%.

I think its pretty close to 8-10%.

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suppose OSU was playing Michigan this week instead of next (it's at Michigan) -- what is the point spread?

-4.5 OSU sound about right?

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I think it'd be higher given Henne and Hart injuries. I'd say -6.5, maybe even across the 7.

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Aren't they pretty much healthy at this point? Hart ran for 110 yards against Michigan State and Henne was 18/33 for 211 with 4 TDs. Even if they aren't at 100% now, I'd think they would be by a week from Saturday.

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1. Ohio State, 9-0
2. Kansas, 9-0
3. Oregon, 8-1
4. Louisiana State, 8-1
5. Arizona State, 8-1
6. Oklahoma, 8-1
7. Missouri, 8-1
8. West Virginia, 7-1
9. Boston College, 8-1
10. Hawaii, 8-0
11. Michigan, 8-2
12. Georgia, 7-2
13. Virginia Tech, 7-2
14. Southern Cal, 7-2
15. Conneticut, 8-1
16. Florida, 6-3
17. Auburn, 7-3
18. Clemson, 7-2
19. Texas, 8-2
20. Alabama, 7-3
21. California, 6-3
22. Tennessee, 6-3
23. Kentcuky, 6-3
24. Penn State, 7-3
25. Boise State, 8-1

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suppose OSU was playing Michigan this week instead of next (it's at Michigan) -- what is the point spread?

-4.5 OSU sound about right?

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I think it'd be higher given Henne and Hart injuries. I'd say -6.5, maybe even across the 7.

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Aren't they pretty much healthy at this point? Hart ran for 110 yards against Michigan State and Henne was 18/33 for 211 with 4 TDs. Even if they aren't at 100% now, I'd think they would be by a week from Saturday.

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Neither is anywhere near 100%. They're just that good.

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tOSU has to be second only to Notre Dame for best teams to bet against vs. the spread. Tressel never runs it up and tOSU fans are delusional, degenerate bettors.

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suppose OSU was playing Michigan this week instead of next (it's at Michigan) -- what is the point spread?

-4.5 OSU sound about right?

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I think it'd be higher given Henne and Hart injuries. I'd say -6.5, maybe even across the 7.

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Aren't they pretty much healthy at this point? Hart ran for 110 yards against Michigan State and Henne was 18/33 for 211 with 4 TDs. Even if they aren't at 100% now, I'd think they would be by a week from Saturday.

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Neither is anywhere near 100%. They're just that good.

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Then why didn't they beat MSU worse?

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tOSU has to be second only to Notre Dame for best teams to bet against vs. the spread. Tressel never runs it up and tOSU fans are delusional, degenerate bettors.

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Really? tOSU is 6-3 ATS this year, 9-3 last year. Both of those get them in the top 10 of all teams. In their 2002 NC run, they were 8-6 because they beat half their opponents by like 3 points. Now they are about even money on the O/U this year, 3-9 last year. My source for exact numbers was covers.com.

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tOSU has to be second only to Notre Dame for best teams to bet against vs. the spread. Tressel never runs it up and tOSU fans are delusional, degenerate bettors.

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Really? tOSU is 6-3 ATS this year, 9-3 last year. Both of those get them in the top 10 of all teams. In their 2002 NC run, they were 8-6 because they beat half their opponents by like 3 points. Now they are about even money on the O/U this year, 3-9 last year. My source for exact numbers was covers.com.

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Don't worry about the facts or anything, Riverman.

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suppose OSU was playing Michigan this week instead of next (it's at Michigan) -- what is the point spread?

-4.5 OSU sound about right?

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I think it'd be higher given Henne and Hart injuries. I'd say -6.5, maybe even across the 7.

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Aren't they pretty much healthy at this point? Hart ran for 110 yards against Michigan State and Henne was 18/33 for 211 with 4 TDs. Even if they aren't at 100% now, I'd think they would be by a week from Saturday.

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Neither is anywhere near 100%. They're just that good.

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Then why didn't they beat MSU worse?

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Uhh they still won despite being way more injured than they or Carr or anyone is probably letting on? It was still a rivalry game on the road against a team with a good pass rush. Henne came up huge.

Oh, and our playcalling blew so hard for all of the 3rd and half the 4th quarters. But that's standard.

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suppose OSU was playing Michigan this week instead of next (it's at Michigan) -- what is the point spread?

-4.5 OSU sound about right?

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I think it'd be higher given Henne and Hart injuries. I'd say -6.5, maybe even across the 7.

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Aren't they pretty much healthy at this point? Hart ran for 110 yards against Michigan State and Henne was 18/33 for 211 with 4 TDs. Even if they aren't at 100% now, I'd think they would be by a week from Saturday.

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Neither is anywhere near 100%. They're just that good.

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Then why didn't they beat MSU worse?

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MSU always plays out of their minds against Michigan and Michigan has no respect for them.