Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, Chonan's been training up at Team Quest with Hendo and Sok, etc.

re: Overeem
He looked absolutely awful in his last fight against Sergei Kharitonov.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks, i forgot i actually watched this fight, i seem to remember overeem looking like he wanted to quit like a minute in

and yeah viscant, like performify said you are making a ton of assumptions, i don't see how you can come to the conclusion that someone is garbage on the ground just because he's knocked everyone he's fought out, i mean for all i know he really could be terrible like you say, but i am willing to admit that i haven't seen anything in his fights that would allow me to come up with any kind of informed opinions on his ground game

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

i made my first ever ufc bet the other day based on my own capping: houston alexander. i watched silva struggle against a slow, plodding standup fighter in thomas drwal, and then i re-watched houston's fights against jardine and sakara (it didn't take long).

am i wrong, or does alexander have one of the most efficient looking stances in mma? i'm not sure how it is for kicking, but from a punching perspective, dude seems to have his hands, shoulders, and head nicely aligned. i'm not sure how well he moves his head around though - it might not be too hard for an opponent to land one on that big dome.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

re: Overeem/Kharitonov

If you want to know what kind of fighter Overeem is, watch this fight. It's a prototypical Overeem fight. Look good for two minutes, gas, get pounded on, fall down.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

I doubt Silva is stuborn enough to stand and trade with Alexander for long. The fight will probably look more like the Drwal fight, where he shot in numerous times, even though he was doing fine in the standup. I don't think his takedowns looked that great, but if Alexander doesn't finish quickly, or have good takedown defense, it's going to the ground, and there's no way Alexander's better there. It's also not that clear he has much of an advantage standing. I would guess it's around 55/45 Silva, though in reality it's much more lopsided for one fighter.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Yes, I am making some assumptions, but for the most part they're pretty safe.
Like, Thiago on top for example. He's a legit BJJ black belt with great grappling credentials. Do you REALLY think Houston is going to win this fight if Thiago winds up on top of him? I mean, yeah I respect Houston's strength and his wrestling (which is why I don't want Thiago to pull guard), but with Thiago on top, this doesn't end well for Houston. It just doesn't. Yeah, I fully admit I don't know very much about Houston's BJJ skill, but assuming that Thiago's is better is not a stretch. Not even a little bit.

Also questioning Houston's cardio is still pretty valid, IMO. I'm not basing it off of him sucking wind after the Sakara fight (although to be honest that's kind of a red flag), I'm basing it off him not having the experience here yet. I can name you 10+ guys I've met and worked out with personally who have the best gym cardio in the world and still gas repeatedly under fight conditions (like I said, I can name a lot, but the one I'm thinking of right now is Vernon White), so while I understand that you've seen Houston have some great workouts, his in fight cardio is still under review.


I think if we take the names out of this, it becomes a lot closer than you're making it out to be. On paper we have two Muay Thai strikers who fall into clinches because of how they throw. I think the likelihood of a clinch in this fight is very very high and I think we both agree on that (you think that Thiago will be against the fence for sure, I disagree). I think that from this position, the man with the better BJJ has a huge advantage because should the fight end on the ground, Thiago certainly has the advantage, in experience and in credentials, and I think we can both agree on that.

I respect your opinion and a lot of what you said in your post was true. There's a lot I DON'T know about Houston. But from what I DO know about Thiago, I think the assumptions I made are at least fair and lead to this fight being between a 50/50 to 60/40 split, leading to me placing my bet on Thiago.

We'll see tomorrow I suppose and if I'm wrong and Houston completely manhandles Thiago in the clinch or if the fight goes to the ground and Houston overpowers him, then I'll be the first to step up and admit that I was wrong. I just see too many doubts in this fight and too much left to be answered for Houston at this time.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Just going to post my picks here so I can see how I did.

W * Michael Bisping (205) vs. Rashad Evans (206)
W * Houston Alexander (203) vs. Thiago Silva (204)
NA * Joe Doerksen (185.5) vs. Ed Herman (186)
* Ryo Chonan (169.5) vs. Karo Parisyan (170) W
* Frankie Edgar (154) vs. Spencer Fisher (154.5) W
* Thiago Alves (171) vs. Chris Lytle (170.5) W
W * Joe Lauzon (155) vs. Jason Reinhardt (155)
NA * Marcus Aurelio (156) vs. Luke Caudillo (155.5)
W * Akihiro Gono (169) vs. Tamdan McCrory (170)

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

picking winners without lines or units is pretty much worthless, for what its worth...

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

I'm not interested in posting my analysis publically yet.
Once I have a decent private track record I may start posting lines.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Does anyone have video footage of Alexander beside the two Ufc fights? I honestly cant see how you all can make a fair line on this fight with the given Infomation.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
There's a lot I DON'T know about Houston. But from what I DO know about Thiago, I think the assumptions I made are at least fair and lead to this fight being between a 50/50 to 60/40 split, leading to me placing my bet on Thiago.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is retarded, if you think the fight is 60/40 why would you state that there is big value in +150?

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's a lot I DON'T know about Houston. But from what I DO know about Thiago, I think the assumptions I made are at least fair and lead to this fight being between a 50/50 to 60/40 split, leading to me placing my bet on Thiago.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is retarded, if you think the fight is 60/40 why would you state that there is big value in +150?

[/ QUOTE ]

Without giving any info on what I think of the fight(because I feel confident that I cannot accurately handicapp houston vs Thiago)...

last I time I checked, getting 1.5:1 on 1:1 or better yet 3:2 is huge value...

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

60/40 is a fair line of +/- 150. I think that's where the confusion came in

Unless you're saying -- which I think you are -- you think the true line is Houston as a 40% underdog to Silva, in which case you should have approximately 16% of your total bankroll riding on this fight at half-kelly (1/3rd your bankroll at full kelly).

-P

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

21times20: Why is it that I had no idea what your username meant, but now that I've sparked one, it came to me in a heartbeat? LOL

Quick in-n-out post here...

Chonan is dropping a weight class.

Karo is incredibly talented. But he gassed out his last 3 fights.

I see Chonan losing round one. He gets tossed on his ass, and Karo will ride the round out on top of him... blowing his wad in the process. Karo hence loses 2 and 3.

I see this fight as 60/40 Karo tops. More likely 55/45 or even 50/50.

+281 at Pinny makes me smile.


I think Judo could (should?) be the next big thing in MMA, it adds sooo many options to the clench game. But unless Karo figures out how to hit the "on" button on the treadmill... it won't be him that ushers it in.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

BTW... there's been a lot of action against Gono... anyone know what gives?

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
BTW... there's been a lot of action against Gono... anyone know what gives?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I predicted BarnCat...

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Hey cheers, man!

Might be able to find some actual value on Gono yet! LOL

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
60/40 is a fair line of +/- 150. I think that's where the confusion came in

Unless you're saying -- which I think you are -- you think the true line is Houston as a 40% underdog to Silva, in which case you should have approximately 16% of your total bankroll riding on this fight at half-kelly (1/3rd your bankroll at full kelly).

-P

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew where the confusion came from, I just wanted to state it in between the lines for trixtrix. It was obvious trixtrix was criticizing Viscant assuming Viscant thought HA was a 60% fav and still wanted to bet Silva when Viscant was saying Silva is 50-60% likely to win according to his handicapping, which means +150 is HUGE value.


Again as in my previous post, it doesn't agree with my handicapping. I have an action bet on HA, but that's all.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
60/40 is a fair line of +/- 150. I think that's where the confusion came in

Unless you're saying -- which I think you are -- you think the true line is Houston as a 40% underdog to Silva, in which case you should have approximately 16% of your total bankroll riding on this fight at half-kelly (1/3rd your bankroll at full kelly).

-P

[/ QUOTE ]

While we're on the topic of comments on fights vs actual betting...

I will quote @ the end, but your writeup indicates you beleive Spencer Fisher is the favorite in his fight with Edgar...now that he's widely available @ +120 and had blipped as high as +130, shouldn't that be about equal to your bet on alexander? 51% @ +130 is insanely juicy...

Frankie Edgar (-135) vs. Spencer Fisher (+105)

Frank Edgar is 7-0 in MMA and 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Mark Bocek at UFC 73 and Tyson Griffin at UFC 67. Edgar was a collegiate freestyle All-American wrestler for Clarion University of Pennsylvania. He also formerly held the lightweight championship in the Reality Fighting organization. Edgar is from New Jersey and should certainly have the hometown crowd at his back.

Spencer “The King” Fisher holds a fantastic 20-3 MMA record (5-2 UFC) and fights out of the Miletich camp in Davenport, Iowa. Fisher comes into this fight off a unanimous decision victory over Sam Stout at UFC Fight Night 10 back in June. Prior to that win, Fisher lost by TKO to Hermes Franca at UFC Fight Night 8. Fisher has heavy hands, as evidenced by his 11 wins by TKO, but he also sports a solid ground game, ending seven fights by submission via armbars and triangle chokes.

This is a close fight, which is reflected by the close line. Fisher holds a significant edge in MMA experience, comes from a better camp, and should generally have better coaching and a better gameplan. Despite that, I’ve been more impressed with Edgar as a fighter. He’s got a stronger base of wrestling to build on, but he hasn’t shown the same striking ability as Fisher. Its very possible that Fisher will want to keep this fight standing where he’ll likely have a significant edge, but he’s also dangerous off his back. It’s not a situation where Edgar can neutralize Fisher’s skills by putting him on his back.

I expect this will be the fight of the night. Ultimately I don’t see significant edge from a gambling perspective, but I expect that Spencer Fisher’s edge in striking, coaching and experience will prove too much for Edgar

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]

[*]Evans -275 : 2.75u to win 1u</li>



[/ QUOTE ]

Evans down to -260 on Bodog now. I put 2.6u on to win 1.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

My writeup doesn't always map exactly to percentage outcome. I.e. just because I predicted Fischer to win there doesn't mean I think he's 51%.

I said in the writeup that i didn't see much value at the line at +105, that would indicate at minimum that I thought he was no better than 48% or so to win.

That all said, I did believe there was a bit of value on Fischer at +130 and hit it lightly (about a quarter unit) there. If it crawls back that direction to stay, i will likely put a little more action on it.

At +150 i'd start to look hard, but I'd also worry that someone knows something I don't...

-P

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Svj plays: (fight specific bets are from 5dimes)

Bisping +246 .25u to win .61u
Bisping wins by 3 round decision: +609 .25u to win 1.52u

Alexander -166 1.66u to win 1u

Edgar -121 1.5u to win 1.25
Edgar/Fisher goes > 2:30 into 2nd: -230 2.3u to win 1u

Doerksen +135 .33u to win .44u

Chonan +306 .5u to win 1.5u
Karo/Ryo goes > 2:30 into 2nd: -245 2.45u to win 1u
(Just watched some Chonan fights... seems takedown defence is something that happens to other people. Wow.)

Reinhardt +441 .5u to win 2.2u


And just for fun....
Gono -191 .5u to win .25u

Ringside Ref check allows Gono to wear wig into cage:
(Wig must be worn during entrance for action)

No: -300 3u to win 1u. LOL

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

LOL @ that last prop.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Alexander got [censored] up [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
Alexander got [censored] up [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Meh. Certainly the worst event I’ve seen in a long time from a fan perspective, and not anything to write home about from a gambling perspective either.

Results on the night:

* Evans -275 : 2.75u to win 1u - WIN +1u
* Alexander -155 : 4.65u to win 3u - loss -4.65u
* Doerkson +120 : no action - no action
* Karo -345 : 1.72u to win .5u - WIN +.5u
* Fisher +105 : .25u to win .26u - loss -.25u
* Alves -180 : 1.8u to win 1u - WIN +1u
* Reinhardt +300 : .15u to win .45u - loss -.15u
* Aurellio -450 : 2.5u to win .5u - WIN +.5u
* McCrory +200 : .5u to win 1u - loss -.5u

Result on the night: 4-4 -2.55 units

Meh. None of the longshot underdogs came through, although McCrory did win the first round on the judges card and was winning the first minute of the second round before getting caught.

Not real sure what happened with Alexander. He certainly looked a lot less aggressive than expected. MMAjunkie.com will certainly follow up with Alexander and his coach Mick Doyle next week to get their take on what happened.

-P

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
Meh. Certainly the worst event I’ve seen in a long time


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

I think you may have gotten a bit too involved with Alexander to be objective, Perf (and I'm not just thinking this after the fact - I bet on Silva). The fight went more or less exactly like I expected, and Houston showed nothing on the ground.

I could be off, but this may be something to think about when you are capping fighters that you develop a personal relationship with through your work.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Well, the Alexander fight was pretty much exactly like how I posted. The clinch was inevitable and then once it went to the ground there was no real resistance on Houston's part. Thiago Silva is a great grappler and his top control is quite good. Expecting Houston to stop him with the short amount of training time he's had with BJJ was just a little unrealistic.

Anyways, we can all definitely agree that from a fan's perspective, the event was very poor. Least entertaining card since the early UFCs, IMO.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

How bad was it first ufc ive missed in a while sounds like houston showed no ground game what so ever and rashad eeked out a decesion

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Apple, you can always get the full play-by-play recap from MMAjunkie if you want to see how everything went.

-P

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

i had no idea whether alexander had a competitive ground game or not coming into this fight, but the tremendous ease and quickness with which he got mounted once the fight went to the ground says a lot i think

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

This was a dulllll show. That being said, I just watched all the undercard fights which, without exception, are way more entertaining than the main card.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

I've been finally satisfied with the ridiculous hype surrounding Houston Alexander. People were talking about how he`s the toughest SOB around this and that.`I never believed it once .... god his ground game looked worse than Nobuhiko Takadad at PRIDE 1. Overall pretty boooooooooooring whole card.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, the Alexander fight was pretty much exactly like how I posted. The clinch was inevitable and then once it went to the ground there was no real resistance on Houston's part. Thiago Silva is a great grappler and his top control is quite good. Expecting Houston to stop him with the short amount of training time he's had with BJJ was just a little unrealistic.

Anyways, we can all definitely agree that from a fan's perspective, the event was very poor. Least entertaining card since the early UFCs, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]


Props. That is all.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've been finally satisfied with the ridiculous hype surrounding Houston Alexander.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the more obnoxious aspects of MMA is that a large portion of its fans are bandwagon jumpers who think anyone who won their last two fights by KO is a god and anyone who lost their last fight is a scrub. Some people just don't understand variance and place way too much emphasis on the short term. The best team in baseball in any given year usually wins about 60% of their games, but for whatever reason people expect perfection from fighters.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've been finally satisfied with the ridiculous hype surrounding Houston Alexander.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the more obnoxious aspects of MMA is that a large portion of its fans are bandwagon jumpers who think anyone who won their last two fights by KO is a god and anyone who lost their last fight is a scrub. Some people just don't understand variance and place way too much emphasis on the short term. The best team in baseball in any given year usually wins about 60% of their games, but for whatever reason people expect perfection from fighters.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT x10.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Analysis of my analysis....

[ QUOTE ]
Bisping +246 .25u to win .61u
Bisping wins by 3 round decision: +609 .25u to win 1.52u

[/ QUOTE ]Bisping nearly pulled it off. Fight was much closer than +246 or +609 for a decision. I'm happy with the bet, even though it lost.

[ QUOTE ]
Alexander -166 1.66u to win 1u

[/ QUOTE ]Bad. Just, bad. I bought the hype. I paid the price.

[ QUOTE ]
Edgar -121 1.5u to win 1.25
Edgar/Fisher goes > 2:30 into 2nd: -230 2.3u to win 1u

[/ QUOTE ]3 round decision, exactly as planned.

[ QUOTE ]
Doerksen +135 .33u to win .44u

[/ QUOTE ]Herman got saved by the bell in the 2nd. I'm happy with the bet, but sometimes, them's the breaks.

[ QUOTE ]
Chonan +306 .5u to win 1.5u
Karo/Ryo goes > 2:30 into 2nd: -245 2.45u to win 1u
(Just watched some Chonan fights... seems takedown defence is something that happens to other people. Wow.)

[/ QUOTE ]Reduced my bet after seeing the film on Chonan. Thank God. Karo gassed as predicted, but Chonan couldn't do anything with it.

Given Chonan's lack of any real fight-ending skills, and Karo being, well, Karo.... the over bet was a good decision.

[ QUOTE ]
Reinhardt +441 .5u to win 2.2u

[/ QUOTE ]It was a flyer to begin with. But apparently not the right one. The real odds on that fight should have been more like 7:1. Bad call on my part, but not a big one.

[ QUOTE ]
And just for fun.... Gono -191 .5u to win .25u

[/ QUOTE ]Haven't seen the fight to make any analysis. But I didn't really cap this fight. I just put a lil on Gono cause he's fun.



Good calls:
Bisping
Bisping by dec.
Edgar
Edgar/Fisher Over
Doerkson
Karo/Chonan Over


Bad calls:
Alexander
Chonan
Alexander
Reinhardt
Alexander

Final result: Damn near exactly breakeven.
(Luckily I doubled my over bets on Edgar and Chonan at fighttime, so I got something out of it, even if my record don't reflect.)

Any word on the wig prop? LOL

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

To be fair, losing in MMA is just different than losing in any other combat sport. Most of us (I know I was) were raised on boxing. It's pretty rare that you see a boxing match end in as thorough a whooping as some MMA fights, like Chuck/Rampage for example. Even if it's a pretty one-sided beatdown, the other boxer usually has his moments and even if he's never really in the fight, he at least lands some stuff and executes his gameplan a little bit.

It's different watching someone get totally and thoroughly walked through like that and the common thought for the general public isn't "well that was going to happen 15% of the time", it's more like "goddamn, that was a whooping. I guess either ______ is god, or ______ just flat out sucks because that fight wasn't even close!"


I guess what I'm trying to say is that due to how foreign and new MMA is to a lot of people, the constant deification/discarding cycle is just something we kind of have to expect from the casual fan. It can be profitable though. I'm already eagerly anticipating the Machida/Sokoudjou line for UFC79 for this very reason.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Yeah, the Machida/Sokoudjou is a very interesting fight, and I think will be very profitable if Machida is at -150ish or better.

svj,

Definitely check out the Gono fight. Pretty good ending.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, the Machida/Sokoudjou is a very interesting fight, and I think will be very profitable if Machida is at -150ish or better.

svj,

Definitely check out the Gono fight. Pretty good ending.

[/ QUOTE ]

A machida win means we'll prob see sokou vs houston and machida vs rampage. That would be awesome.