Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

Do y'all know when they announce the AL Cy Young award and the NL Cy Young award?

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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Braun hit a ton of home runs, and that it. Period.

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Avg OBP SLG OPS
Braun .324 .370 .634 1.004
Tulowitzki .291 .359 .479 .838

I know the defense and positional factors help Troy, but to act like this isn't close when Braun crushes him in offensive production is crazy.

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uh

BRAR/FRAR/BRAR+FRAR

Tulo: 29/45/74
Braun: 51/-10/41

Braun is the worst defensive 3rd baseman in baseball
Troy Tulowitzki might win a gold glove

if you think these things don't matter, you're wrong

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Did I say that? I made the point that Braun doesn't only "hit a ton of home runs" and the race is closer than people in this thread are making it out to be. If I thought "these things dont matter," then I would have said, "ZOMG Braun is def ROY cuz he's got more OPS and he doesnt clog the bases by drawing a lot of walks."

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...Except that it's not close at all.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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Maybe I'm wrong, but it does seem you would want to maximize the AB's of guys with high OBP, and put the players with higher SLG behind them to drive them in. In this case, Hudson should be hitting 1 or 2, and Young should be hitting somewhere 4-6. I'm pretty sure the D'backs would have scored more runs this year with Hudson hitting in front of Young as opposed to the C and P hitting in front of Young.

And it drove me nuts all year watching the Cubs put Soriano in the lead off spot. Just plain dumb.

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couldnt agree more, leadoff hitters shud have an obp of at least 350 imo. Same thing with jimmy rollins, his obp was only like 330-340 but he hits so many home runs, hed def be more effective further down the lineup.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

I have an honest question question about BRAR because I've never really studied any of these "advanced" statistics. In the definition I read on BP, it said that home field is taken into account when figuring out numbers adjusted for the season. My question is: does this imply that road numbers are taken into account separately somehow?

The reason I ask is that (and this could apply to anyone, but it is obviously most applicable for players on the Rockies) it's not just that hitting stats of Rockies players tend to be inflated at home. Many of them also have huge dropoffs on the road. So much, in fact, that if one could make the argument that were they not on the Rockies, their numbers would be pedestrian or even below average. I suppose you could add a few points here and there because they'd get accustomed to their new home field and what-not, but the differences in the home/away splits really stand out to me.

To clarify, it seems to me that there is a difference between adjusting for home park and adjusting for both home park AND away park, if that makes any sense at all.

For example:

Tulo (home/away) -- BA .326/.256, OBP .392/.327, SLG .568/.393, OPS .960/.719

Braun -- .BA .326/.322, OBP .385/.356, SLG .660/.610, OPS 1.045/.966

Even Holliday has a very large difference between his home and away numbers, although his away numbers are still good. Todd Helton's differences aren't as huge.

This isn't a criticism of Tulo. It's an honest question because I want to understand the numbers a little better. I think he's a fantastic player and is either 1a for ROY or 1b. It just seems to me that if he wasn't on the Rockies, his offensive numbers would not even put him in the discussion for the award.

Also, when BP says that a stat is adjusted for the season, does that extrapolate to a 162 game season or just take the numbers as is? The reason I ask that is because Braun produced his hitting stats in two fewer months than those who played the whole season. If he would have played the whole year (assuming he hit at the same pace), he would've had A-Rod numbers and not only would have been a no doubt ROY, but possible MVP.

Then again, he would have had more errors, too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

At any rate, I would love to own a team with Tulo, Pence, Braun, and Young in the lineup for the next ten years. Heck, Tulo could cover for Braun in the field until Braun becomes an average 3B.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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he would've had A-Rod numbers and not only would have been a no doubt ROY, but possible MVP.


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David Wright says hello and would be more valuable than Braun even if Braun had an extra 100PA on him

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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he would've had A-Rod numbers and not only would have been a no doubt ROY, but possible MVP.


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David Wright says hello and would be more valuable than Braun even if Braun had an extra 100PA on him

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I didn't say 100% lock for MVP, I said possible. Christ. I know David Wright is really good. So are Rollins, Fielder, Holliday, and Howard.

But this isn't a discussion of whether people go with the literal translation of Most "Valuable" Player or consider it an award for the best player that year.

Thanks for answering my question.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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Tulo all the way! it better be anyway, did you guys see his defensive performance in the postseason?? nothing short of amazing. he even had an unassisted triple play this season, i mean come on this should be a no brainer.

of course i'm biased as a rockies fan but whatever, im trying not to be. TULO-GIT TO QUIT!

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I think it should be Tulo, but this is a really bad argument.
He had a seven game stretch where he played great D and got a play, which is pretty much entirely based on luck.

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"seven game stretch"? The dude made 11 errors all season long. He had a 163-game stretch and a lucky play. No one's naming him MVP because of his triple play. He's also hit more HRs than any National League rookie SS. Ever.

Braun hit a ton of home runs, and that it. Period.

The Rockies don't make the playoffs without Tulo. The Brewers missed the playoffs just fine with Braun, and without his glove the last week of the season, they might have actually made the playoffs.

No disrespect to Braun, I hope he has a nice outfield career ahead of him, but there is no way he was the better rookie than Tulowitzki this year.

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Did you read my post? I agree with your conclusion however the following things are irrelevant in determining whether or not the he wins the ROY
He has played great defensively in the past seven games.
He got a triple play
He made 11 errors this season
His team made the playoffs

This is slightly relevant
He broke a record for NL rookie SS in HRs. His HR's are relevant, but the fact he broke a record is meaningless.

Also Braun was the a top 10 hitter in the NL this year. He hardly just hit HRs.

Also 55 fielding runs is probably too much, but it is still like 30-40

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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Did you read my post? I agree with your conclusion however the following things are irrelevant in determining whether or not the he wins the ROY

He made 11 errors this season


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Actually, this is quite relevant.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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Did you read my post? I agree with your conclusion however the following things are irrelevant in determining whether or not the he wins the ROY

He made 11 errors this season


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Actually, this is quite relevant.

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The fact he had 11 errors is irrelevant. The fact he has really good range and arm strength is not.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

Actually, anything that sticks in the mind of the voters is relevant, and that includes video highlights of Tulowitzki's defensive wizardry in nightly web gems, and the video lowlights of Braun's 4 error game that pretty much helped cost the Brewers the division.

I'm not saying it's the deciding factor, but Tulo's arm strength is good range is very relevant, if the voters based any part of their vote on having seen any of that play on BBTN over the year.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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I wouldn't get too caught up in this, the batting order doesn't make that much difference. In fact, I think the most significant impact the BO is to get your better hitters more PAs, so having Young bat leadoff probably is better than having a worse hitter with a better OBP leadoff. There's value to getting the HR hitter more PAs overall.

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I know studies say that order doesn't matter much but my mind has trouble accepting this. Maybe I should read some of those studies so I can refute or accept their conclusion.

But either way, if you believe OBP = 3*SLG, or at least that OBP is much more important than SLG for scoring runs, CY was not even one of our top 5 hitters this year so he should bat 6th.

I would think an optimal lineup would be close to

Batter OBP/SLG
Orlando Hudson .376/.441
Conor Jackson .368/.467
Mark Reynolds .349/.495
Eric Byrnes .353/.460
Chris Young .295/.467

Of course next year it's reasonable to assume that CY's OBP will be close to .350, so you can start batting him higher. But not lead-off.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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couldnt agree more, leadoff hitters shud have an obp of at least 350 imo.

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It doesn't work that way - you need to choose from among the players you have, you don't get to choose the players you want for each spot in the order. What if your only guy with .350 OBP is also the only guy with .500 slugging %s and you have an arbitrary "rule" that your leadoff guy must have an OBP of .350 and your cleanup hitter must have a .500 slugging?

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Same thing with jimmy rollins, his obp was only like 330-340 but he hits so many home runs, hed def be more effective further down the lineup.

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Why do you say this with no justification? If you replace him at the top of the order with someone with higher OBP and lower HR, you have:

- a net LOSS of expected HRs hit by the lineup; plus
- a net GAIN due to Rollins having (presumably) more opportunities to be a good hitter with runners on base

Observing the gain in the second bullet point without developing an argument that it exceeds the loss in the first bullet point doesn't allow to draw the conclusion you are drawing.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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I know studies say that order doesn't matter much but my mind has trouble accepting this. Maybe I should read some of those studies so I can refute or accept their conclusion.

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Don't make the mistake of exagerrating the conclusion - if you bat your worst hitters first and you best hitters last there is a pretty strong impact on the expected runs scored. When people say "batting order doesn't matter" what they mean is that the importance of having a "traditional" lead off hitter batting first, a "traditional" number 2 batting second, etc. is severely overrated and that you can shuffle everyone by a couple of spots in the order and it makes little difference. Batting order does "matter" when you go out of your way to give your worst hitters the most plate appearances, but the studies don't claim to deny that. They merely point out that having a 3 hour argument about whether Manny and Big Papi should go 3-4 or 4-3 is stupid.

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But either way, if you believe OBP = 3*SLG, or at least that OBP is much more important than SLG for scoring runs, CY was not even one of our top 5 hitters this year so he should bat 6th.

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I agree with this - you're catching the general idea that your best hitters should hit near the top.

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I would think an optimal lineup would be close to

Batter OBP/SLG
Orlando Hudson .376/.441
Conor Jackson .368/.467
Mark Reynolds .349/.495
Eric Byrnes .353/.460
Chris Young .295/.467

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Seems about right, but I also think you could shuffle those top 4 any which way and gain or lose 0.05 expected runs per game or something like that.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

nevermind that you also have to combine projection with actual performance -- mark reynolds won't put up those numbers next year and shouldn't be expected to continue to do so during the actual season, so why bat him 3rd.

Re: Ryan Braun named Baseball America ROY
 

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nevermind that you also have to combine projection with actual performance -- mark reynolds won't put up those numbers next year and shouldn't be expected to continue to do so during the actual season, so why bat him 3rd.

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If he can't hit 3rd next year, we are so screwed!!! No, seriously, we have a team with a lot of young guys who need to develop their game more to be strong contributers. We just need to give them more time to develop and find out who's a bust and who's a stud, and ignore the fluky playoff run we had this year that was at least two years pre-mature. Reynolds is probably the biggest candidate for a bust, he has poor plate discipline, and has been very lucky. But he is only 23, so no one can predict if he'll improve and start to "get it" or not.