Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
a place I use has him at 12/9/3 with ATTROCIOUS ft%

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't around 60% the average for Centers?

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
So do you not buy into the general 3rd year players blossom idea? I mean i understand they have more competent players and Redd is around again, But he has a ton of talent and again is their only real big threat. I find it hard to believe he will regress or at best match last year.

Where would you have taken him in a draft? 120's? Later?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure he has a "ton of talent". I mean, he's a nice fantasy center, better than his real life value. He'll have a good NBA career. That said, 120's is very good value on him. Not sure exactly where I'd take him in a redraft league, maybe around 80-100.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

12/9.5/3 with 60% FT

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a place I use has him at 12/9/3 with ATTROCIOUS ft%

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't around 60% the average for Centers?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the average for fantasy worthy centers is low 70's

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

What about for a 4th Center. Bynum or Shaq in a keeper. I have the Wade, LBJ, Yao core with JO, Felton or Tmac as my 4th, so i dont have to go young. I would prefer to get the best possible player for this year. I could also go Crawford, Mobley, Conley Jr.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

With Billups, AI, Yao... is Greg Oden worth picking and stashing on bench in keeper? Two person keeper. Would he be one of the players I keep or no?

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

I highly doubt it. Who are your other players? Yao is the only great long term keeper out of those 3.

If you have highly deep benches like around 8 or so plus then i would stash him either way.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
In a dynasty league starting this season full of complete morons I have the #1 overall pick. Our categories are pts, rbs, assists, 2ptFT%, 3ptFT%, block, steals, TOs, and FT%.

Head to head. Positions are just guard, forward, and center.

Who should I take?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have the #2 pick in this league. Assuming Lebron is gone, what's my play?

I am thinking Amare or Dwight.

Amare:
Pros: Doesn't kill you with TOs and FT% like Dwight. Minutes and effectiveness likely to go up 2nd year after microfracture surgery.
Cons: New knee problems (though not supposed to be serious). Will he be as good after Nash slows down / retires?

Dwight:
Pros: A complete beast and only 21. No character or health questions. With better shooters around him this year, may have more assists and/or face fewer double-teams.

Cons: FT%. TOs.

I also considered Wade, but I think his playing style makes him very injury-prone and there is a high probability that he will age poorly.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

Either way makes me happy!

*thumbs up*

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]

I have the #2 pick in this league. Assuming Lebron is gone, what's my play?



[/ QUOTE ]

Running the numbers on this scoring system, Marion has the best overall contributions by a somewhat significant margin. He's only below average in 3% and assists, pretty natural for his position. If you think his numbers will fall significantly when his contract expires and he relocates, your next best options(factoring age) are Dirk, Wade, Kobe, Amare. If Dirk has center eligibility, he is a slam dunk pick. Even without it, he's probably your best bet. Contributes positively in every category except steals. If you are deadset on taking a "young" player, Bosh, Deng, or Paul are your best bets. Also, Lebron should not be the #1 pick, period.

btw, if you are considering taking someone with the last name Howard at the #2 pick, it should be Josh Howard and not Dwight. Dwight should not be a top 20 pick in that scoring format, his FT% is atrocious and his turnover rate is extremely bad as well. Put another way, his positive contributions in rebounding aren't enough to cancel out his negative FT% numbers. He's also going to negatively impact assists and steals.


I wish I had read this forum when the league was taking signups, I'd love to be in it [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In a dynasty league starting this season full of complete morons I have the #1 overall pick. Our categories are pts, rbs, assists, 2ptFT%, 3ptFT%, block, steals, TOs, and FT%.

Head to head. Positions are just guard, forward, and center.

Who should I take?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have the #2 pick in this league. Assuming Lebron is gone, what's my play?

I am thinking Amare or Dwight.

Amare:
Pros: Doesn't kill you with TOs and FT% like Dwight. Minutes and effectiveness likely to go up 2nd year after microfracture surgery.
Cons: New knee problems (though not supposed to be serious). Will he be as good after Nash slows down / retires?

Dwight:
Pros: A complete beast and only 21. No character or health questions. With better shooters around him this year, may have more assists and/or face fewer double-teams.

Cons: FT%. TOs.

I also considered Wade, but I think his playing style makes him very injury-prone and there is a high probability that he will age poorly.

[/ QUOTE ]

#1 pick is available for trade btw.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

Dwight is a killer. No player will force you to tailor your draft strategy to his strengths more than him. TO's really aren't that big a deal for guards, but he's not a guard. His FT% will lead you to drafting guys with similar weaknesses, which means your whole team will have below market trade value since most teams do value FT% reasonably highly.

One thing I would say to everyone is that very few players end up staying on a team for more than 2 and certainly 3 years. Thinking "oh, I'll have Howard til he's 34" sounds great on paper, but in reality isn't at all likely. You may not keep him til he's 24.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

Marion's a god. The only real concern with him is if he leaves Phoenix next year.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

Amare's great if you can stomach the long term knee risk. I think it's similar to the Wade risk. A healthy Wade is simply a beast but I concur about the injury risk and it looks like he won't play til mid-December this year, which means 2008 before he's 100%.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lebron should not be the #1 pick, period.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probabaly since he's never been and likely never will be a top 10 player in the league. But his youth, perceived durability and very limited downside make him pretty attractive at #1. That said, he hurts you bad in 3 categories which is more than virtually anyone else who is likely to go in the first round. As high volume as he is, it's tough to overcome his FT% and 3%, and turnovers from a forward suck too.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
btw, if you are considering taking someone with the last name Howard at the #2 pick, it should be Josh Howard and not Dwight. Dwight should not be a top 20 pick in that scoring format, his FT% is atrocious and his turnover rate is extremely bad as well. Put another way, his positive contributions in rebounding aren't enough to cancel out his negative FT% numbers. He's also going to negatively impact assists and steals.

[/ QUOTE ]

join our league?

also, am I the only one who finds Dirk to be the most attractive #1? I haven't checked his #s on this scoring system, but I'm just assuming it's near the top and he positively contributes in about every stat (I think even his TOs are OK).

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

Dirk is definitely a top 5 guy year-in, year-out.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bobbo why dont you like Bogut? Most sites have him projecting out to 15p 10reb 4as 1bl 55% FG 65% FT with upside. I technically took him around the 75th pick or so, when would you have taken him?

[/ QUOTE ]
Same reason everyone else in the thread doesn't like him. I mean, if there is no one left, pick him...

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
With Billups, AI, Yao... is Greg Oden worth picking and stashing on bench in keeper? Two person keeper. Would he be one of the players I keep or no?

[/ QUOTE ]
No

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dwight is a killer. No player will force you to tailor your draft strategy to his strengths more than him. TO's really aren't that big a deal for guards, but he's not a guard. His FT% will lead you to drafting guys with similar weaknesses, which means your whole team will have below market trade value since most teams do value FT% reasonably highly.



[/ QUOTE ]

From the things you and Irish Hand have been saying before, I had assumed that the key to success in this league is to ignore 2 or 3 categories and try to dominate the others. Wouldn't that make Dwight an attractive pick? Plus, the trade value thing cuts both ways, some of your guys will have less trade value, but guys that with low FT% that aren't very valuable to their current owners will be very valuable to you.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

sergsz,

I think the problem is that you're putting all your chips in one basket, which could severely limit your options down the road. Whereas if you end up with Dirk, Lebron, KG, etc., you still have some flexibility later.

Plus, the whole trade value thing. But don't listen to me, I'm probably gonna get pwned in this league.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
From the things you and Irish Hand have been saying before, I had assumed that the key to success in this league is to ignore 2 or 3 categories and try to dominate the others. Wouldn't that make Dwight an attractive pick? Plus, the trade value thing cuts both ways, some of your guys will have less trade value, but guys that with low FT% that aren't very valuable to their current owners will be very valuable to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's a sweet player, but so long as he's on your team, you have no choice but to concede not being competitive in FT%. If you ignore FT% as a category, DHoward jumps to top 5 production...but it IS a category.

The problem is that from round 1, your strategy has been forced onto you. Round 2 comes along and there is a guard with great %s (say Ray Allen) that dropped and he's far and away the best player available on your draft list. Well, his (Ray's) value is considerably lessened because his FT% excellence is wasted. You then get to choose between picking an inferior overall player (who fits well with Howard) or taking Ray Allen and having a poorly contructed team.

On the flip side, if you start with a real top 10 guy who doesn't hurt you anywhere (KG, Dirk, Marion, Nash - even Camby), then in round two you can take whoever you want.

The later you are forced to adopt a strategy by taking a flawed player, the better imo. You can always find mid-draft and late-draft specialists (great 3-point shooters, good rebounders who don't do much else, shot-blocking Cs etc)...but it's almost impossible to work around one guy who kills one category.

Don't get me wrong - Dwight Howard will definitely be a 1st round pick in the N2 - and he should be, but his team will be operating from a different framework from the get-go...

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]

join our league?

also, am I the only one who finds Dirk to be the most attractive #1? I haven't checked his #s on this scoring system, but I'm just assuming it's near the top and he positively contributes in about every stat (I think even his TOs are OK).

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have available spots, I am def in! I thought the league was full, though. Let me know conclusively?

Agree on Dirk. The only better player is Marion and his numbers may fall when he leaves Phoenix.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

We should send Assani an email. If he answers, he stays in, if not...

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

I'm sure that won't be necessary. Also, Bowens is first up on the alternate list. I love the interest though and definitely we will get Morell in at some time.

There are two leagues with 32 total teams. I'm sure a spot or two will be available next year. We average 1-2 spots per league per offseason that open up.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

Only thing I'm afraid of in this upcoming draft is my internet connection. I don't want everyone getting pissed off because the internet here loves cutting out occasionally. It's usually pretty good on the weekends but with my luck it'll decide to [censored] with me when I need it most.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

I think there is a few people ahead of morello in the queue even if commish decides to boot Assani. My remark was more of a taunt, as I think you severely undervalue Dwight. And I'm not convinced Marion/Dirk are tops (KG, for example). The point is, you can build a successful team multiple ways, so it's not enough to just say A>B.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

Needle,

no offense, but it's 2007, bro. Get out da boonies. We got a guy in Alaska for crissakes.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
Needle,

no offense, but it's 2007, bro. Get out da boonies. We got a guy in Alaska for crissakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Trust me, once I graudate its out of Pennsylvania. I have to go home to Jersey occasionally just to see civilization.

BTW, it's actually because I'm cheap and bought a really crappy wireless router and it craps out because so many people use it. So usually weekends its fine.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
Needle,

no offense, but it's 2007, bro. Get out da boonies. We got a guy in Alaska for crissakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

So glad to be the punching bag for this kind of humor all year...

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

seth,

HOUSE IS MADE OF ICE, AMIRITE?

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Needle,

no offense, but it's 2007, bro. Get out da boonies. We got a guy in Alaska for crissakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

So glad to be the punching bag for this kind of humor all year...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still pissed that I might have to travel to there by bus. But the good news is that St. Petersburg is in Florida and not in Russia, thank God. Didn't want to pay those damn Pilgrims to cross the atlantic.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

oh we're crossing baby. Onward ho! to the Vatican and Bethlehem.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a few people ahead of morello in the queue even if commish decides to boot Assani. My remark was more of a taunt, as I think you severely undervalue Dwight. And I'm not convinced Marion/Dirk are tops (KG, for example). The point is, you can build a successful team multiple ways, so it's not enough to just say A>B.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are tons of ways to win, no doubt about it.

I don't underestimate Howard. I would take him at 11 in all likelihood, which is a little bit of a reach. I just think taking him top 5 over say Yao, Amare, Dirk, KG, Wade, Kobe is pretty suspect.

The most interesting players to see where they get drafted are:

KG
Howard
Nash
Duncan
Ray Allen
Elton Brand
Carmelo
Iverson

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
oh we're crossing baby. Onward ho! to the Vatican and Bethlehem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damnit, I forgot about the Vatican. Can the Bombers fly over the Dodgers team bus?

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]

One thing I would say to everyone is that very few players end up staying on a team for more than 2 and certainly 3 years. Thinking "oh, I'll have Howard til he's 34" sounds great on paper, but in reality isn't at all likely. You may not keep him til he's 24.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain the reasoning behind this please. Why wouldn't you just keep the young guys forever?

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

Dwight Howard is grossly overrated in fantasy. I don't think I'd take him earlier than the end of the 5th round in a Roto league, and yes, I'm serious. He has A+ value in Rebounds, B+ value in 2% and Blk, C+ value in Points. That's it. FT% value is F-, TO value is F+, Steals, Assists and 3's are neutral.

That said, he has a lot more value in a H2H league, so long as you're prepared for your draft, and don't spend the rest of the draft digging out of holes. If you're in a deep hole, then just forget about it.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

One thing I would say to everyone is that very few players end up staying on a team for more than 2 and certainly 3 years. Thinking "oh, I'll have Howard til he's 34" sounds great on paper, but in reality isn't at all likely. You may not keep him til he's 24.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain the reasoning behind this please. Why wouldn't you just keep the young guys forever?

[/ QUOTE ]

See my comments in the league email discussion today. I addressed this exact issue at length.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
We should send Assani an email. If he answers, he stays in, if not...

[/ QUOTE ]

That wouldn't be fair. I have been(and plan to continue to be) one of the most active and timely owners in the league when it comes to participating on the site. I'll also be on this forum a ton(as usual) and be participating in any discussion here. Its just this whacky email programs you guys are using that I don't seem to understand...I never knew that we'd have to be doing that, and I still don't see why its a necessity.

Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a few people ahead of morello in the queue even if commish decides to boot Assani. My remark was more of a taunt, as I think you severely undervalue Dwight. And I'm not convinced Marion/Dirk are tops (KG, for example). The point is, you can build a successful team multiple ways, so it's not enough to just say A>B.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are tons of ways to win, no doubt about it.

I don't underestimate Howard. I would take him at 11 in all likelihood, which is a little bit of a reach. I just think taking him top 5 over say Yao, Amare, Dirk, KG, Wade, Kobe is pretty suspect.

The most interesting players to see where they get drafted are:

KG
Howard
Nash
Duncan
Ray Allen
Elton Brand
Carmelo
Iverson

[/ QUOTE ]

well....your predictions on where they get drafted?