Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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I think ND will get love for the outright win despite still sucking. The lines for this team have seemed incorrect all season. They started off way too low... and then went way way too high (Purdue is good?) and who knows?

I'll likely back BC under ~17.

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LOL Notre Dame had 140 total yards.

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Umm... >3TD dogs in each game? Thats next level bad. And in the modern game... You almost need a fairly explosive offense to warrant that.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Wake last year was a charmed school. +5 in close games. Last year's game was an anomaly. (sp?)

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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FSU -9 at Wake?

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One of the hardest to cap, IMO. I had Wake +6.

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I mean, does Wake have someone hurt or what? What am I missing?

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We are as healthy as you could hope to be for this time in the year.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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Wake last year was a charmed school. +5 in close games. Last year's game was an anomaly. (sp?)

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I don't dispute either of those points, but I still can't find a reason why people have FSU ~10 points better on a neutral. Do you guys think they are considerably better with Lee instead of Weatherford?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Do you consider Wake that much better than Colorado this season?

What happened to your avatar? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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FSU -9 at Wake?

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One of the hardest to cap, IMO. I had Wake +6.

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I mean, does Wake have someone hurt or what? What am I missing?

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FSU is now ranked top 20, 9 is too high probably, I just think LV will open it higher than 6. Very tough to call.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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Vandy didn't compete very well against Alabama or Auburn, and UGA is probably better than both.

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You're half right. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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Do you consider Wake that much better than Colorado this season?

What happened to your avatar? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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FSU managed 221 total yards against Colorado's 279, and was +2 in turnovers.

My avatar struggled against one of the best defenses in the country on the road. He will have plenty of opportunities to make everyone forget that subpar performance, most notably this Saturday. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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Vandy didn't compete very well against Alabama or Auburn, and UGA is probably better than both.

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You're half right. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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Well, UGA beat Bama at Bama, and Auburn still lost to Mississippi State (!) and South Florida, at home. I don't put much into this week's UGA/UT blowout - Tennessee blocked a punt, got a long TD on a trick play, and by that time it was out of hand.

I'm no UGA fanboy - I think they're pretty mediocre - but they're no worse than a push with Bama/Auburn, who both easily handled Vandy - that's the only point I was making.

Weren't you extremely pessimistic about Auburn's chances against Mississippi State? Did they like make some sort of trade or something since then that has changed your perspective? Of course they've been playing better, but I don't see what is fundamentally different about them - they have Lester but are also minus Groves - annnnnnd they still have Brandon Cox!

Edit: Well, it does look like a fairly dominant performance by Tennessee in the box score, but having watched the first 20 minutes or so, it just seemed like things really snowballed on UGA. I'm not massively re-evaluating them downward or UT upward.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Man I was all over these spreads.

Oh and thanks books for the BC line! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

BC 3u -12
UK +10.5 1u

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Well, looks like Naj was right on Mia/GT. At least I nailed the LSU and BC lines.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

3u BC -12 and 2u BC -13
1u Wiscy +6.5
2u Illinois -2.5 (I think MyTurn was expecting higher.)

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Michigan -5
Miami (OH) -2.5 (missed 1.5 by like a second)
Texas A&M +9 (missed +10 by a second)
Colorado +4.5
Illinois -3 (missed 1.5)
Wisconsin +6.5

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Miami opened -3
UNC +6.5

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Wisky +6.5
Illini -2.5 both 1u

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Mannnnnnnn that S. Carolina line looks too good to be true ... must resist the trick.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I went to put a unit on Auburn +3, and they changed it to 2.5 on the confirm screen, and I think to myself, you know what - 0-4 on Auburn - I think I'll just sit on the sidelines this week. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Wow, almost took USC-19, now it's 21+, keep going so I can fade them!

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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Mannnnnnnn that S. Carolina line looks too good to be true ... must resist the trick.

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S. Carolina's offense isn't very good. If UNC doesn't give them the game like Kentucky did it could easily be competitive.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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I went to put a unit on Auburn +3, and they changed it to 2.5 on the confirm screen, and I think to myself, you know what - 0-4 on Auburn - I think I'll just sit on the sidelines this week. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Wait for DrBob to go other way!

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I would have got a unit on Kentucky +10.5, but everyone seemed real down on Kentucky after Thursday and I thought it might get better. Guess not.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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Vandy didn't compete very well against Alabama or Auburn, and UGA is probably better than both.

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You're half right. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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Well, UGA beat Bama at Bama, and Auburn still lost to Mississippi State (!) and South Florida, at home. I don't put much into this week's UGA/UT blowout - Tennessee blocked a punt, got a long TD on a trick play, and by that time it was out of hand.

I'm no UGA fanboy - I think they're pretty mediocre - but they're no worse than a push with Bama/Auburn, who both easily handled Vandy - that's the only point I was making.

Weren't you extremely pessimistic about Auburn's chances against Mississippi State? Did they like make some sort of trade or something since then that has changed your perspective? Of course they've been playing better, but I don't see what is fundamentally different about them - they have Lester but are also minus Groves - annnnnnd they still have Brandon Cox!

Edit: Well, it does look like a fairly dominant performance by Tennessee in the box score, but having watched the first 20 minutes or so, it just seemed like things really snowballed on UGA. I'm not massively re-evaluating them downward or UT upward.

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Auburn's defense has been great all year. Our offense was Notre Dame-esque in our first three games, thus my pessimism. Obviously that is not the case anymore. Is it b/c of the freshmen O-linemen that had their redshirts removed after MSU? Whatever the reason, you can't really cap Auburn games based on the MSU performance anymore. Auburn drove the ball extremely well against Florida (4 10-play drives, plus another where we fumbled on the first play after a 15-yard run) and that was validated against Vandy (1st half total yards was like 350-65 or something.) I think Groves will play against Arkansas, although our center is out now.

UGA got blown out by UT. I don't think you can sugar-coat that. They also lost at home to SC and the Bama win is looking not so great anymore. I'd take Auburn over UGA in a heartbeat right now on a neutral field.

Edit- FWIW Sagarin predictor has Auburn currently -9 over UGA.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

The UGA-UT game was a snowball type of loss for UGA. UT consistently beat them in the trenches for 60 minutes. Sure, the blocked punt was big, but there were 30 yards of penalties tacked onto UT after the block, so it was still a 60 yard-ish drive. The trick play was the only fluky thing in the game. Tennessee just outclassed UGA.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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Vandy didn't compete very well against Alabama or Auburn, and UGA is probably better than both.

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You're half right. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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Well, UGA beat Bama at Bama, and Auburn still lost to Mississippi State (!) and South Florida, at home. I don't put much into this week's UGA/UT blowout - Tennessee blocked a punt, got a long TD on a trick play, and by that time it was out of hand.

I'm no UGA fanboy - I think they're pretty mediocre - but they're no worse than a push with Bama/Auburn, who both easily handled Vandy - that's the only point I was making.

Weren't you extremely pessimistic about Auburn's chances against Mississippi State? Did they like make some sort of trade or something since then that has changed your perspective? Of course they've been playing better, but I don't see what is fundamentally different about them - they have Lester but are also minus Groves - annnnnnd they still have Brandon Cox!

Edit: Well, it does look like a fairly dominant performance by Tennessee in the box score, but having watched the first 20 minutes or so, it just seemed like things really snowballed on UGA. I'm not massively re-evaluating them downward or UT upward.

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Auburn's defense has been great all year. Our offense was Notre Dame-esque in our first three games, thus my pessimism. Obviously that is not the case anymore. Is it b/c of the freshmen O-linemen that had their redshirts removed after MSU? Whatever the reason, you can't really cap Auburn games based on the MSU performance anymore. Auburn drove the ball extremely well against Florida (4 10-play drives, plus another where we fumbled on the first play after a 15-yard run) and that was validated against Vandy (1st half total yards was like 350-65 or something.) I think Groves will play against Arkansas, although our center is out now.

UGA got blown out by UT. I don't think you can sugar-coat that. They also lost at home to SC and the Bama win is looking not so great anymore. I'd take Auburn over UGA in a heartbeat right now on a neutral field.

Edit- FWIW Sagarin predictor has Auburn currently -9 over UGA.

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You make a compelling case. I may even concede Auburn is slightly better than UGA on a neutral at the moment, after looking at it more closely.

But - didn't UGA also beat Auburn by like 100 at Auburn last year, when Auburn was better and UGA was worse? If you're gonna give credence to 07 UGA/UT, you gotta look at that game too.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I guess this is a good week to be low on cash at BookMaker because everything is mostly where I thought it would be.

Hopefully said cash shortage won't be a problem next week after BC beats Notre Dame by 30+. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

wow looks like everyone in this thread is all in on BC ... can't blame you @ -12

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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But - didn't UGA also beat Auburn by like 100 at Auburn last year, when Auburn was better and UGA was worse? If you're gonna give credence to 07 UGA/UT, you gotta look at that game too.

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True, but I watch all of our games and our offense has not looked this good since '05. I was worried that it was a fluke, but the Vandy game has me convinced. Take the over in the Arkansas game when the totals come out.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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I would have got a unit on Kentucky +10.5, but everyone seemed real down on Kentucky after Thursday and I thought it might get better. Guess not.

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Do you think Kentucky can hang with LSU physically? You have to love the timing for Kentucky to catch them on a letdown. I just wonder if they can hang in there all game. SC seemed to out-hit them the other night.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

At home, I think they'll be physically up for the game, LSU will be as beat up if not more so after the war v Fla. Regardless, the 10.5 makes up for some shortcomings.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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3u BC -12 and 2u BC -13
1u Wiscy +6.5
2u Illinois -2.5 (I think MyTurn was expecting higher.)

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yeah...I was expecting at least a TD

WTF at -2.5?!

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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Wow, almost took USC-19, now it's 21+, keep going so I can fade them!

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22.5 and still going

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Illini -2.5 is very WTF. Benn and Williams only have minor injuries, right?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Sagarin predictor only has Illinois favored by 2. I think this line's probably sharper than you'd think.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

sagarin predictor is still bayesian = garbage in this case

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Letdown has to be a worry for the Illini too, going on the road after facing back-to-back ranked teams. They could easily come out sloppy and find themselves down 14-3 at halftime.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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BC 3u -12
UK +10.5 1u

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forgot to post Ark -2.5 for 1u @6:36
amazed I nailed lsu, ark, missou, GT opens.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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If Tennessee is just -7, it'll be my play of the year.

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Play of the year time! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Louisville is just befuddling to me. I look at that line of 10.5 against Cincy and it just SCREAMS value at me. In the preseason this line was probably UL -6. They have great athletes, even on defense! They have Brian Brohm! They're gonna score some points, maybe a lot if Douglas plays! They were in the preseason top 10!

But MAN has the defense been BAD...cover-your-eyes bad...hard-to-wager-on bad. And they have a bad result, a horrible result, and a historically awful result to go along with one decent result. Tough one to call.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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Illini -2.5 is very WTF. Benn and Williams only have minor injuries, right?

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Yep, Zooker says they'll both be playing @ Iowa but that they'll be going really lightly in practice early this week. He's also really worried about the letdown factor but thinks the seniors like Leman won't let that happen.