Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Flames @ Red Wings Over 5 1u

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
so like a martingale?

[/ QUOTE ]

Similar. In sportsbetting they're typically called "chase systems". People do this on road trips a lot since obv you can never lose.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
so like a martingale?

[/ QUOTE ]

yep... 'chase' system = martingale

these guys are like bankers that collect nickles in front of bulldozers

It works over and over and over and over for so long that they overlook the lightning strikes that hit


This one especially makes no sense to me as the 'theory' behind it sucks. The first thing that goes with tired hockey teams is their team defense, not the offense. If anything, I'd expect to see an 'over' chase system for road series.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only thing tired in this game was the Leaf defence!!

LOL @ TORONTO.

Bad beat OP, good luck going forward.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was Game 1 ... there will be game losses lol. That's why it's a Chase System.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does that mean Rich?

Does that mean we go 2 units on the under in Caro's next game?

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW, how do you follow a system like this and you don't even know what you are getting into.


Read the first thread. Use your brain. Don't do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW, I didn't place any bets.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Whatever dude, then stop encouraging him by acting like you're following.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

What happens when you lose so many in a row that your next bet is more than the sportsbook maximum? Even if that rarely happens, when it does it would seem to be pretty devastating. And it will eventually happen, as all losing (and winning) streaks do.

Also, if this system does work, wouldn't it make more sense to find out why it works and exploit that weakness for maximum edge/value, as opposed to not trying to find out what makes the system work?

craig

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

He quits at the end of each series, so he's roughly 1 - 1/2^n to win a unit and 1/2^n to lose more than 2^n. As long as he keeps miraculously dodging the 1/2^n shot more than he should, his collection of -EV bets will show a profit, even though his expectation is literally worse than flipping a coin to decide over/under and betting 1u on the same games he plays.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

The Overs are 5-0 with one pending (Boston).

The Unders are 4-0 with two pending (Caro & Calgary).

So, saying that I'm playing the Overs... I am up four units and have a two unit play on Boston coming up. Let's assume I lose that... I'd be up roughly two units and have four units on Boston next time out.?

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flames @ Red Wings Over 5 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

Shipped.

-JC

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

guys, please stop critiquing his theory. the sports forum is not a place for people to discuss the reasoning behind bets. its a place for people to post with a dream. let op live the dream before 1/2^n pours a bucket of water on his face.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Record: 4-0 (2 pending)

Oct. 11

Game 2 Hurricanes @ Senators u6 (-130)
2.93u to win 2.25u

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

How can you be 4-0 when you lost the Leafs game 2 days ago and the flames game last night?

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

any thoughts in
New Jersey Devils vs Florida Panthers?

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
any thoughts in
New Jersey Devils vs Florida Panthers?

[/ QUOTE ]

took over 5.5 +120 based on no magical supersystems, just figure the public overrates Marty B. a bit, so there may be some value taking the over when he's on the road vs. a team that has given up a lot of goals so far.

I am bad at sports betting though, so fading me might make you robusto.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Over 5.5 +133 right now at pinny, i like it but i think i better go for Devils ML +102.

i will wait, let's see if the line moves up. if +105 im in.

fk, -107 now...

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

woops, i actually had +125 over 5.5 Devils, not +120, slightly better

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
How can you be 4-0 when you lost the Leafs game 2 days ago and the flames game last night?

[/ QUOTE ]

obv series record

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so like a martingale?

[/ QUOTE ]

yep... 'chase' system = martingale

these guys are like bankers that collect nickles in front of bulldozers

It works over and over and over and over for so long that they overlook the lightning strikes that hit


This one especially makes no sense to me as the 'theory' behind it sucks. The first thing that goes with tired hockey teams is their team defense, not the offense. If anything, I'd expect to see an 'over' chase system for road series.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, think I said that earlier. I'll take the overs.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

1.5u New Jersey Devils ML (-102)

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How can you be 4-0 when you lost the Leafs game 2 days ago and the flames game last night?

[/ QUOTE ]

obv series record

[/ QUOTE ]what does this mean? What series?

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Congratulations Coolmoedee. You have just found someone even more square than you.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Record: 4-0 (2 pending)

Oct. 12

Game 2 (3/4) Flames @ Stars u5 (-105)
1.96u to win 1.87u

Game 1 (3/5) Flames @ Stars u5 (-105)
1.05u to win 1u

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Rich,

How many units are you down for the season?

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
Record: 4-0 (2 pending)

Oct. 12

Game 2 (3/4) Flames @ Stars u5 (-105)
1.96u to win 1.87u

Game 1 (3/5) Flames @ Stars u5 (-105)

How in the F can you claim your 4-0. You just lost last night's game! YOU ARE 4-3 ON THE YEAR AND ALOT OF UNITS DOWN! Get your math right!!I stuck up for you when you were 3-1 now you are 4-3 and just as bad a picker and bettor as every one else here. Except that Rugby guy.
1.05u to win 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Can the Mods mute or remove someone for making false claims like this?

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Keep up the good work RICH!!!

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Record: 4-0 (3 pending)

Oct. 13

Game 3 (3/4) Flames @ Predators u5.5 (-135)
2.53u to win 1.87u

Game 2 (3/5) Flames @ Predators u5.5 (-135)
1.35u to win 1u

Game 3 (3/5) Hurricanes @ Canadiens u6 (-135)
6.99u to win 5.18u

Game 1 (3/4) Wild @ Coyotes u5 (+105)
0.95u to win 1u

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

You are not 4-0. YOU ARE 5-3.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are not 4-0. YOU ARE 5-3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Record isn't a per game record, it's road series record. That's why there's 3 pending. If the entire series is lost, then it goes on the loss column.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
Record: 4-0 (3 pending)

Oct. 13

Game 3 (3/4) Flames @ Predators u5.5 (-135)
2.53u to win 1.87u

Game 2 (3/5) Flames @ Predators u5.5 (-135)
1.35u to win 1u

Game 3 (3/5) Hurricanes @ Canadiens u6 (-135)
6.99u to win 5.18u

Game 1 (3/4) Wild @ Coyotes u5 (+105)
0.95u to win 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL can't wait for this to go over.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Record: 5-1 +1.6u (2 Pending)

Oct. 14

Game 1 (3/5) Red Wings @ Kings u5.5 (+105)
0.95u to win 1u

Game 2 (3/4) Wild @ Ducks u5 (-115)
1.15u to win 1u

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

2-0 tonight

No games until Tuesday (16th)

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so like a martingale?

[/ QUOTE ]

yep... 'chase' system = martingale

these guys are like bankers that collect nickles in front of bulldozers

It works over and over and over and over for so long that they overlook the lightning strikes that hit


This one especially makes no sense to me as the 'theory' behind it sucks. The first thing that goes with tired hockey teams is their team defense, not the offense. If anything, I'd expect to see an 'over' chase system for road series.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes you are right... as 'statistically' on long road trips... the matches of the road trip team got less TOTAL GOALS... it's defnetly wise to bet on OVER... you should start your own 'hockey chase strategy'... the odds will be great for chasing overs...

*irony off: just bs!

btw: 7-1 +3.6 with the system...
with a bookie that doesnt allow US citizens, you'd be 9-0 +9

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

Record: 7-1 +3.6u (1 pending)

Oct. 16

Game 3 (3/5) Flames @ Avalanche u5.5 (-110)
2.59u to win 2.35u

Game 1 (3/5) Panthers @ Canadians u5.5 (-110)
1.1u to win 1u

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so like a martingale?

[/ QUOTE ]

yep... 'chase' system = martingale

these guys are like bankers that collect nickles in front of bulldozers

It works over and over and over and over for so long that they overlook the lightning strikes that hit


This one especially makes no sense to me as the 'theory' behind it sucks. The first thing that goes with tired hockey teams is their team defense, not the offense. If anything, I'd expect to see an 'over' chase system for road series.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes you are right... as 'statistically' on long road trips... the matches of the road trip team got less TOTAL GOALS... it's defnetly wise to bet on OVER... you should start your own 'hockey chase strategy'... the odds will be great for chasing overs...

*irony off: just bs!

btw: 7-1 +3.6 with the system...
with a bookie that doesnt allow US citizens, you'd be 9-0 +9

[/ QUOTE ]

interested in said stats

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

oh yeah...who is doing the 'over' system and how is it going?

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

i never heard of such a system...

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
i never heard of such a system...

[/ QUOTE ]

it's basically a shot at this system ... saying that just take the over b/c this system (even though a proven winner) will lose

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i never heard of such a system...

[/ QUOTE ]

it's basically a shot at this system ... saying that just take the over b/c this system (even though a proven winner) will lose

[/ QUOTE ]

All chase systems should usually be winners.

Re: NHL Under System - October Plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i never heard of such a system...

[/ QUOTE ]

it's basically a shot at this system ... saying that just take the over b/c this system (even though a proven winner) will lose

[/ QUOTE ]

no...it's not saying because this system will lose

it's a shot at the theoretical underpinnings of the system

If someone had done the same 'chase' you propose but did it with overs instead of unders, I think they would be perfect on a series record basis right now if I've looked things up correctly.

Why limit yourself to one system? You have 2 goldmines that actually reduce the systematic risk of the strategy on a whole.