Re: UFC 76
 

Anyone know when Performity is coming out with his picks? (I forgot his website's name or else I'd go there)

I'm looking to make a max bet on a fight (watching so makes it more fun) and not sure where the "least -EV bet is" LOL

Re: UFC 76
 

Anybody betting on the Griffin/Tavares fight?

Griffin -150
Tavares +120

on Bodog

Re: UFC 76
 

Rika,

Per usually posts his stuff the day before the fight.

Re: UFC 76
 

How do you play at pinny trix?

Re: UFC 76
 

Doesn't he look Canadian to you?

-P

Re: UFC 76
 

i'm as canadian as dennis kang is korean

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'm as canadian as dennis kang is korean

[/ QUOTE ]

I highly doubt you are even that korean.

Kuniyoshi Hironaka is +190 on bookmaker and I think it's a good bet for you guys. I've already maxed my unit size with him on bodog @ +200 though.

Re: UFC 76
 

What "upsets" have their been this year ?

UFC 68, did you really think that an even more 1-D fighter than K-cop would really beat Couture?
UFC 69, the only real shocker IMO with Serra vs GSP.
UFC 70, All GG had to do was lay n pray 2 rounds to win. Instead he did much more but even if he just wrested for 10 minutes he woulda won.
UFC 71, how was Liddell the favorite to win I still don't understand ? The hype around him was unreal. I mean who was the last great striker he lost to ? Rampage .. after the Rampage/Liddell 1st fight all he did was fight wrestlers ... and we all know he's nearly impossible to take/keep down.

To the hype most of those are big upsets but if u research the fights they weren't really except the GSP/Serra fight. With Griffin/Shogun I see no way how Forrest could possible outstrike Shogun. Shogun is aggressive and TOUGH. Forrest is tough but he's just far to slow IMO to handle the Shogun onslaught. Shogun's strengths in this fight are Forrest's strengths times 5 and he has REAL KO power. I mean Forrests's first few fights after his TUF finale win were against chumps who he was supposed to beat/KO in order to hype him up even further. I really like Forrest and love to watch him fight but I just realistically just don't see how he is gonna outstrike Shogun.

Re: UFC 76
 

Isn't there quite a bit of value in Chuck? I mean he's fighting Jardine. Doesn't he win this near 80% of the time?

Re: UFC 76
 

Normally, I would say that two strikers can't really have more than a 75% chance of a win on one guy, due to factors like slips, lucky punches, etc. Like what Jardine did to Forrest, Serra to GSP, etc.

However, I expect Chuck to do his usual counter-punch, and Jardine to charge right into it, flailing wildly.

I think Liddell will pick Jardine apart the same way that Griffin did. But Chuck's skill level is much, much higher than Griffin's. I think he's smart and skilled enough not to get caught. And a strong enough chin to survive it, even if he does. Especially now that he's been knocked out. I expect he will be very conscious of that being repeated.

I think the value is on Chuck here.



Rua and Forrest on the other hand...

Rua will not be allowed to kick or stomp grounded opponents, a large portion of his offence. A good full-body-weight heel to the gut kicks the hell out of anyone's gas tank. Not an option here.

Elbows shouldn't be a problem. Chute Boxe has plenty of experience with that.

Forrest, since around Griffin/Bonnar 2, has been a much more disciplined striker, preferring to pick his shots, sticking and moving. Using lots of long-range leg kicks. This is exactly what he's going to need for Rua.

The octagon is a larger structure than the ring, and has no definitive corners, making it more difficult for Rua to catch Griffin, or trap him into a corner.

The other factor working in Griffin's favor is the 5 minute round. He can have a much easier time out-pointing Rua in a 5 minute round as opposed to a 10 minute round, where Rua would almost certainly catch up to and outclass him. But it is conceivable Griffin can keep out of reach for 5 minutes at a stretch.

I expect Rua to win, but I think the +EV bet is a small bet on Griffin.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]

Rua will not be allowed to kick or stomp grounded opponents, a large portion of his offence. A good full-body-weight heel to the gut kicks the hell out of anyone's gas tank. Not an option here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you really think a "large portion" of shogun's fights were him standing while his opponent lay on the ground waiting to get kicked? this is almost as ridiculous as you stating so assertively that kicks to a downed opponent's body aren't allowed in the UFC


[ QUOTE ]
Elbows shouldn't be a problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree here as well, if this fight goes to the ground elbows will definitely be a problem, both for forrest griffin and the guy in charge of mopping up the blood before the liddell/jardine fight


[ QUOTE ]
He can have a much easier time out-pointing Rua in a 5 minute round as opposed to a 10 minute round

[/ QUOTE ]

ok i can't argue with you here, griffin will definitely have a better shot at outpointing rua on a round by round basis when you compare to a system that doesn't score by rounds at all

i really don't see why anyone thinks there is any "+EV" in betting forrest here, when you lay chalk on a heavy favorite in mma im pretty sure the main concern is your guy getting caught and knocked out with the proverbial "lucky punch." I have seen nothing in any of griffin's fights to indicate that he has the hand/foot speed to catch an athlete of shogun's caliber off-guard, nor have i seen anything that would lead me to believe that he has the power to knock him out even if he did catch him with something

and forrest winning by decision might be even more of a longshot, i think the level of aggression shogun fights with makes him uniquely suited to avoid a narrow decision loss, especially against a markedly less talented opponent

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't there quite a bit of value in Chuck? I mean he's fighting Jardine. Doesn't he win this near 80% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously I got the line wrong when I said this. -450 would have to be 90% of the time to break even, right?

Re: UFC 76
 

-450 would be break even at ~81.8%

90% break even is -900.

http://www.google.com/search?q=moneyline+converter

-P

Re: UFC 76
 

svj,

While I'd be surprised to see Jardine take this, why do you think he'll charge in wildly against Chuck? Keith comes from Greg Jackson's camp, and if nothing else, Jackson is one of the better gameplanners in MMA. I haven't watched enough Jardine fights (yet) to really pick out a good gameplan for him, but I'd be surprised to see him rush in wildly.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't there quite a bit of value in Chuck? I mean he's fighting Jardine. Doesn't he win this near 95% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: UFC 76
 

I guess I'm rating Forrest's stand up better than everyone else is. I think it's chic to bash forrest in some mma circles just because he started the TUF craze, although there are certainly legitimate criticisms of him. I feel pretty confident in my assessment, but whenever a large % of 2p2 vehemently disagrees, i do pause. Gotta think about this one some more.

Re: UFC 76
 

I put $500 on Rua at -325...I think due to forest's popularity there are going to be people that bet on him no matter what the line...so bodog intentionally shifted it a little...(like what Wong talks about in his book)

Also I think UFC sometimes over hypes the underdog...

we'll see...I'm a sportsbetting fish so wish me luck [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: UFC 76
 

I hit the Liddell line hard at -280 near when it opened. I think the style matchup is particularly bad for jardine, as his outside boxing is not that great or technically sound, and there is no way chuck will brawl with him.

Im contemplating Tavares, whos at around +135 now on BOF and 5dimes. I'm concerned about it being a close fight that griffin wins via outwrestling. I think Tavares has more tools though and more ways to win.

By the way, if you want to do a quick MMA odds comparison, http://zewkey.com/mma_betting_super_page.htm
is pretty good.

Re: UFC 76
 

DO,

I like Forrest, and I would assume most people do strictly based on his personality from the TUF show. He's a very likable guy.

Re: UFC 76
 

Mikey:

Jardine's style vs. Forrest was to stand fully outside of range, and take a couple of hops forward to come inside for a strike. As Chuck's demonstrated time and again, that's a great way for a Liddell opponent to see the ceiling lights.




21x20:

When the opponent's feet come up to stop Rua, one usually changes his course of flight. There are many, many examples of this in his fights.

If you think Rua is going to risk a DQ by taking a flying stomp attempt that could easily end up on his opponent's head, then hey, more power to you. I just don't think that's a risk that the great Brazilian light-heavyweight hope is likely to take. Especially in what he likely regards to be an easy fight.

I guess we have different opinions on this. (Ridiculous, huh? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) Neither of us are called Shogun, so I guess we'll have to wait for the fight to find out.

Good luck!


PS. Anyone have any thoughts on the Wednesday card? I don't have enough fights on any of those guys but K-Flo to figure anything out.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
Mikey:

Jardine's style vs. Forrest was to stand fully outside of range, and take a couple of hops forward to come inside for a strike. As Chuck's demonstrated time and again, that's a great way for a Liddell opponent to see the ceiling lights.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what relevance this has on the Chuck fight. Jardine can safely deploy that strat against Forrest because Forrest doesn't have outstanding KO power. Chuck does. Jardine and Greg Jackson know this. So why would Jardine use the same strategy against Chuck?

Re: UFC 76
 

It's similar that none of the 3 fighters are interested in takedowns or ground game, and Liddell is much better at controlling the distance and the fight than Forrest.

Perhaps you bring up a valid point. To me he seems to be caught between a rock and a hard place, from a style perspective.

So let me ask you, in the spirit of devil's advocacy, what other option do you think Jardine has?

Re: UFC 76
 

I said earlier that I don't think Jardine has much of a shot against Chuck. I think it's similar to the Shogun/Forrest fight in the way that Shogun and Chuck totally outclass their opponents in every aspect of a fight. I just don't think Jardine is gonna bull rush Chuck (though I do think he'll get caught at some point).

I think if Jardine wants to win, he needs to probably do something similar to what Rampage has done with Chuck. Jardine's problem is that he isn't anywhere near the level of Quinton. Jardine could turn this into a really boring ME and just be patient and not let Chuck draw him in.

I'm not really excited about this fight, though, especially compared to the rest of the card.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really excited about this fight, though, especially compared to the rest of the card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hear dat, playa.

Re: UFC 76
 

i personally don't think taking forrest at +310 or above is that bad of a bet, worst comes to worst you can always scalp out of it on fight night..

like someone said before, i know it's passe these days to hate on tufers, but forrest is widely established and highly regarded mma talent way before the reality show. the prob w/ forrest is that he tend to fight w/ more heart than brains.. he'd rather make a fight exciting rather than winning a plodding dec.. that obviously can be both good and bad

i think it's funny people here hate on "tuf"ers like forrest for his sloppy striking, yet had they had any knowledge of forrest at all before "tuf" they'd ve known that forrest has one of the best bjj sub ground game in the lhw division. it easily ranks on the same level if not exceeds shogun's bjj groundgame, though maybe not so much his gnp. the fact that people don't make a note of forrest ground game indicates to me that they should stop calling other "tuf" noobie and pick up a copy of IFC "global domination" dvd...

forrest is just too bullheaded to go to his ground game that often as he thinks its better to be reckless and crowd-pleasing rather than calculating and methodical. however in his last comeback fight from jardine ko has shown that he had gotten significantly smarter standing-wise at least.

at any rate, the shogun that was being backed up by nakamura's pesky arm punches on nye hasn't significantly impressed me enough to say that he would win an easy ud over forrest's gogogo style if it goes to the score cards.. while forrest's ground game should be enough to keep him out of shogun's potential subs..

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
at any rate, the shogun that was being backed up by nakamura's pesky arm punches on nye hasn't significantly impressed me enough to say that he would win an easy ud over forrest's gogogo style if it goes to the score cards.. while forrest's ground game should be enough to keep him out of shogun's potential subs..

[/ QUOTE ]

I just (re)watched this fight. I saw Shogun setting up Nakamura with punches and kicks, coming forward, clinching, and taking down. It was 20 minutes of domination from Shogun over someone who is arguably a top ten fighter.

Again, FWIW, I like Forrest, but I just don't think he offers much in the way of beating Shogun. If Shogun comes out passive with Octagon-jitters, Forrest has a good chance of outpointing him over 3 rounds. Other than that, I just don't see it.

Re: UFC 76
 

I think Forrest needs less than a broken rib and two nut shots to beat Shogun, take that FWIW.

Huge value on Fitch and Griffin IMO. I see both fights going similarly to each other as well...fight of the year candidates.

Re: UFC 76
 

I've already placed heavy bets on fitch and tyson griffin, but I'm worried about both.

Upon re-reviewing fitch's past several things have been brought to my attention. First, his wins appear to be extremely quality but we need to step back and realize that none of his opponents APPEARED to be as good as they are now back then. Initially, I attributed this to Fitch making them look bad...but that may not be completely true.

1. Fitch seems to know how to defend subs very well, but he definitely gets caught in them often. This is not good vs Diego..not good at all. Fitch was caught in a guilliotine by burkman, caught by roan and caught by hironaka. He got out of all of these for many reasons, but it's still not a good thing vs diego. You don't want to find urself defending a sub that has been slapped on by diego.



2. Despite being a very good wrestler with good td's and top control from the guard he gets taken down quite a bit. A couple times by Carneiro, 2-3 by Burkman, 2 by Larson, Joslin took him down 2-3 times, and pretty sure Hironaka got him down once. He has a good ability to get back up though (moreso if they don't properly secure the takedown).

3. He has heavy hands and above average striking, but his gnp is poor unless his opponent is hurt. Joslin, Alves and maybe burkman all beat him standing.

4. His bjj. He is good at taking the back when opponents give it up, but often gets found in bad positions or subs in scrambles (about 50/50 with getting dominant position). He is not good off his back, and mainly stays in the guard with no passing attempts while on top. His rnc wins in the UFC have come when his opponent s were gassed, pulled the arm down for him, or were already rocked by punches; so they were impressive, but not without help.

5. His wins look more impressive than they were. Larson seemed to gas in their fight, Roan was arguably winning the first round, Thiago hurt him bad standing and recovered very well until he ran into two upkicks, and hironaka faired well also. Fitch gets points for coming back from adversity and winning, but he isn't an invulnerable.

What does this mean? This means Fitch is a well rounded fighter but that doesn't mean he doesn't have holes which diego can exploit. Plus diego seems to have the tools to attack all his weaknesses. all this thinking has got me even more pumped for this fight, but way less pumped for my money.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've already placed heavy bets on fitch and tyson griffin, but I'm worried about both.

Upon re-reviewing fitch's past several things have been brought to my attention. First, his wins appear to be extremely quality but we need to step back and realize that none of his opponents APPEARED to be as good as they are now back then. Initially, I attributed this to Fitch making them look bad...but that may not be completely true.

1. Fitch seems to know how to defend subs very well, but he definitely gets caught in them often. This is not good vs Diego..not good at all. Fitch was caught in a guilliotine by burkman, caught by roan and caught by hironaka. He got out of all of these for many reasons, but it's still not a good thing vs diego. You don't want to find urself defending a sub that has been slapped on by diego.



2. Despite being a very good wrestler with good td's and top control from the guard he gets taken down quite a bit. A couple times by Carneiro, 2-3 by Burkman, 2 by Larson, Joslin took him down 2-3 times, and pretty sure Hironaka got him down once. He has a good ability to get back up though (moreso if they don't properly secure the takedown).

3. He has heavy hands and above average striking, but his gnp is poor unless his opponent is hurt. Joslin, Alves and maybe burkman all beat him standing.

4. His bjj. He is good at taking the back when opponents give it up, but often gets found in bad positions or subs in scrambles (about 50/50 with getting dominant position). He is not good off his back, and mainly stays in the guard with no passing attempts while on top. His rnc wins in the UFC have come when his opponent s were gassed, pulled the arm down for him, or were already rocked by punches; so they were impressive, but not without help.

5. His wins look more impressive than they were. Larson seemed to gas in their fight, Roan was arguably winning the first round, Thiago hurt him bad standing and recovered very well until he ran into two upkicks, and hironaka faired well also. Fitch gets points for coming back from adversity and winning, but he isn't an invulnerable.

What does this mean? This means Fitch is a well rounded fighter but that doesn't mean he doesn't have holes which diego can exploit. Plus diego seems to have the tools to attack all his weaknesses. all this thinking has got me even more pumped for this fight, but way less pumped for my money.

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree, what's your problem with Griffin though? He is way better wrestler then Tavares and also has great jitz, as well as good standup.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've already placed heavy bets on fitch and tyson griffin, but I'm worried about both.

Upon re-reviewing fitch's past several things have been brought to my attention. First, his wins appear to be extremely quality but we need to step back and realize that none of his opponents APPEARED to be as good as they are now back then. Initially, I attributed this to Fitch making them look bad...but that may not be completely true.

1. Fitch seems to know how to defend subs very well, but he definitely gets caught in them often. This is not good vs Diego..not good at all. Fitch was caught in a guilliotine by burkman, caught by roan and caught by hironaka. He got out of all of these for many reasons, but it's still not a good thing vs diego. You don't want to find urself defending a sub that has been slapped on by diego.



2. Despite being a very good wrestler with good td's and top control from the guard he gets taken down quite a bit. A couple times by Carneiro, 2-3 by Burkman, 2 by Larson, Joslin took him down 2-3 times, and pretty sure Hironaka got him down once. He has a good ability to get back up though (moreso if they don't properly secure the takedown).

3. He has heavy hands and above average striking, but his gnp is poor unless his opponent is hurt. Joslin, Alves and maybe burkman all beat him standing.

4. His bjj. He is good at taking the back when opponents give it up, but often gets found in bad positions or subs in scrambles (about 50/50 with getting dominant position). He is not good off his back, and mainly stays in the guard with no passing attempts while on top. His rnc wins in the UFC have come when his opponent s were gassed, pulled the arm down for him, or were already rocked by punches; so they were impressive, but not without help.

5. His wins look more impressive than they were. Larson seemed to gas in their fight, Roan was arguably winning the first round, Thiago hurt him bad standing and recovered very well until he ran into two upkicks, and hironaka faired well also. Fitch gets points for coming back from adversity and winning, but he isn't an invulnerable.

What does this mean? This means Fitch is a well rounded fighter but that doesn't mean he doesn't have holes which diego can exploit. Plus diego seems to have the tools to attack all his weaknesses. all this thinking has got me even more pumped for this fight, but way less pumped for my money.

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree, what's your problem with Griffin though? He is way better wrestler then Tavares and also has great jitz, as well as good standup.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't yet put into words what my issue with griffin is yet. obviously I still think both Fitch and Tyson are decent favorites...but previous to my post above I just felt like "jon fitch had something missing, maybe mentally". Then I took the time to re-review all his fights adn came up with the summary above, I'm not sure what my issue with Tyson Griffin is...maybe it's that he seems to be able to get outworked by stiff competition and I'm worried tavares will do the same. Barring a huge line shift, I'm not hedging either of my bets though and even then I may choose to keep my full positions. So take that FWIW.

Re: UFC 76
 

This may be old hat, but I stumbled on this tracking page today:

http://www.zewkey.com/mma_betting_super_page.htm

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
Did you even try going to the betting sites? The 76 lines have been up just as long as 75.

Jon Fitch -115
Diego Sanchez -115

Mauricio Rua -325
Forrest Griffin +250

Chuck Liddell -450
Keith Jardine +300

Courtesy of Bodog

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi, I havent read the whole thread I read the first couple of pages and I'll read the rest later. I've been a UFC fan forever but I just recently got reeaally into it and into betting it (after I went to the Lidell v rampage fight). I think there's good value in a lot of fights, particularly in betting dogs when they're usually coinflip matches...ie Rampage, Congo etc....So, yea I'll be posting in these MMA threads often now to try and get some good bets in.

Anyway I was looking at the lines on bodog and its pretty sick...I reaally hope that I can go to bellagio tomorrow and see some better lines than these.

As it stands right now

I'm either not betting the Rua fight, or betting small on Forrest at +235, I'll bet a decent amount if I can get +300 on griffin or -200 on Rua which I doubt I'll get.

I'm probably not betting the lidell fight just cuz I like him too much and want to root for him...but I might get greedy and bet small on Jardine at +300

I'm betting a good amount on Fitch getting decent value on what I think will be a tough ass fight for Diego comming from a loss. +115 I think is decent, Even though Sanchez is sick I've always liked Fitch and anything can happen, and from the sounds of it (rogan and white's comments for the most part) the fight is more of a coinflip.

What do you guys think?

Re: UFC 76
 

..uh, what?

Re: UFC 76
 

Sylvia a dog to Vera??

Sweeeeet!

Re: UFC 76
 

Not betting against a guy (team or whatever), because you like them is a losers attitude. If you think there is value there you should bet Jardine.

Re: UFC 76
 

not accepting the value of rooting for someone/enjoying the fight is a non-sports-fan's attitude.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
value of rooting for someone/enjoying the fight

[/ QUOTE ]

This the primary factor for me when deciding whether to make a bet. Thankfully it's a usually small bet.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not betting against a guy (team or whatever), because you like them is a losers attitude. If you think there is value there you should bet Jardine.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of people in these threads aren't professional MMA bettors. I bet against Anderson Silva against Marquardt, and I really regret having to root against him.

Re: UFC 76
 

Does everyone agree that Fitch and Tyson are the best bets on this card?

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does everyone agree that Fitch and Tyson are the best bets on this card?

[/ QUOTE ]

@ -115 and -150, yup.