Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

I have added O24 2H rutgers/Navy as well.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Just an observation here but does it seem to anyone else that since Rice on Rutgers is in the heisman discussion they are trying to force him into the endzone too much. I know he is best athlete on their team and is having great success running the ball. How much will this hurt them when they get into games against WV and other top programs?

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can somebody explain to me why every analyst is touting LSU's stadium like it's the best homefield ever? Didn't they have like a ~10 year streak w/ Alabama where the road team won like every single game? Didn't they lose to a mediocre Florida team at home the year they won the NC? Didn't they choke away a 3 TD lead at home vs. Tennessee a couple years ago?

[/ QUOTE ]

probably because they've seen a game there

I've been to many stadiums (most of the famous ones) and nothing comes close to the atmosphere at LSU for a night game

[/ QUOTE ]
Not to hijack, but just out of curiosity I'm wondering if Autzen is one of the ones you've been to and if so where you thought it stacked up?

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can somebody explain to me why every analyst is touting LSU's stadium like it's the best homefield ever? Didn't they have like a ~10 year streak w/ Alabama where the road team won like every single game? Didn't they lose to a mediocre Florida team at home the year they won the NC? Didn't they choke away a 3 TD lead at home vs. Tennessee a couple years ago?

[/ QUOTE ]

But they have a 5-yd line painted on the field! That's worth like 4 points!

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

unfortunately, I haven't seen much on the West Coast due to where I reside. I've only been to games at the Rose Bowl and Coliseum out West.

In the Big11Ten, I've been to Ohio Stadium (the best), Beaver Stadium, Camp Randall, Big House as the more notables. Baton Rouge was more impressive than all of them. It was louder than the horseshoe in Columbus.

Gone to some pro games at the RCA Dome in Indy and Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. I'd say it's not quite as loud in Baton Rouge as the domes, but it's definitely crazier.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good one, MyTurn. It's not like the numbers don't bear out a large home advantage for LSU though anyway. The last 3 years, LSU's 20-1 at home and 9-4 on the road. Over the last 7 years, you can make that 43-6 vs. 20-11.

[/ QUOTE ]

58 in a row at home, 5 Nat'l titles, beat 8 #1 teams in a row without a loss, Okla, Neb, FSU, Fla, PSU, ND, Houston, Alabama is a home-field advantage.

20-1? I scoff. Scoff scoff.

Of course, things fell off a little under Coker...

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

I've been to many stadiums and nothing comes close to the atmosphere at LSU for a night game

[/ QUOTE ]


me too myturn. That place is awesome and intimidating.

I was riding on the bus at LSU with the Miami, Ohio team back when I was a student in 1990 because I was shooting the coach's video. As we're pulling in there are all these fans are lined-up and throwing mud and rocks at our freaking bus.
WTF? The whole team was super psyched-out before the game even started just from all the thuds of various crap bouncing off our bus.
Not like we would have had a chance anyway. But that atmosphere there really is THAT impressive and intimidating imo.

And that's how they greet a virtual nobody run-of-the-mill non-conference opponent like Miami, Ohio.
Can only imagine what it's like when a rival or top 10 team comes in there.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

GO FOR 2! GO FOR 2!

(I have Rutgers -12.5 and Navy +17)

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Or just take the 1 for the push. Either way. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

I should've bet Rutgers o14 2nd half instead of -5.5 2nd half

argh

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Oregon/Michigan u65.5 -110

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Just in time.
http://img104.imageshack.us/img104/8771/99387154tj7.jpg

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Nice one. I am pleased with the result as I know I got away with one there because of my lack of knowledge of Dr. bob affecting the lines. By not waiting until after he affected the lines or jumping on early I cost myself a win. Thanks again myturn for your post earlier about this topic as it can help me next week.

Rutgers -17 Push
Rutgers/Navy 2H O24 Win

28-9-1ytd +11.234

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Had Rutgers at 16.... goin sizzla goin sizzla. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Also adding for mourning plays
Nebraska -8 1unit
Nebraska/WF O49.5 1unit

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

I don't think you need to mourn those plays yet. You might win on them for all you know.


I've added WV -24. I really don't think Marshall is that good and will get pushed around pretty badly.
Seems I said something similar recently about a little program called MTSU.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

WV -24
FlAtl +24
MEM -3, -120
OKL -11
NC +5
TEN -10, -120
CAL -14
ND +17.5
HAW -28, -105

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

cal -13
emich +4.5
kstate -19
utahst/wyo ov 40.5
vandy +4 more
miss st -5.5
maryland -23
ul-monroe +27.5

watching:
wisconsin -25
air force +7.5
georgia -3.5

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Here's a sum of my picks so far:

Bowling Green +18 at Michigan State (Risk 2.2u to win 2u)
Oregon +8 at Michigan (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)
Middle Tennessee State at Louisville -38 (Lose 1.1u)
Oregon State +3.5 at Cincinnatti (Lose 1.5u)
Navy at Rutgers -15.5 (Win 1.5u)
UTEP +24 at Texas Tech (Risk 2u to win 2.04u)
UTEP/Texas Tech under 63.5 (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)
Buffalo at Temple -3.5 (Risk 1u to win 1u)
Florida Atlantic +23.5 at Oklahoma State (Risk 1u to win 1.06u)

Kind of a light slate this week as I don't have any 3 unit picks and only 9 games total. I'll have to move some money into Bookmaker this weekend to get the early lines as if I would have bet 3 units on Rutgers if I could have got the early line and would have had a solid play on Penn State -14 too. I'll probably add a couple last minute picks tomorrow, but this will be the bulk of my picks for the week.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

LOL that is what I get for not checking for typos when I am tired. Thanks micro. You always know how to make us laugh and stay on our toes.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Hey guy's im new... doing pretty decent so far this year, anyway I am looking @ the over on the Oregon Michigan game. I don't think either defense can stop either offense.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Rutgers -16 (risk 2.6u to win 2.3u) - WIN

WVU -24 (risk 1.1u to win 1u)
Georgia -3.5 (risk 1.1u to win 1u)
Cal -14 (risk 1.1u to win 1u)
Nebraska -8 (risk 1.1u to win 1u)
Alabama -3.5 (risk 1.1u to win 1u)
Kent St/Kentucky o52.5 (risk 1.1u to win 1u)

CFB YTD: 10-5, +5.5u (results are with Rutgers result added in).

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

My week 2 as first posted at my live journal page

*********WEEK 2*************
POTW Bowling Green +18 @ Mich St bet 1.05u to win 1u
Bowling Green +16 @ Mich St bet 3.3u to win 3u
Georgia -3.5 v USC bet 4u to win 4u
South Florida +7.5 @ Auburn bet 3.3u to win 3u
Western Michigan -1 v Indiana bet 2.75u to win 2.5u
Mizzou -5.5 @ Ole Miss bet 2.75u to win 2.5u
Oregon +7 @ Michigan bet 1.1u to win 1u
Washington +3.5 v Boise St bet 2.2u to win 2u
Bama -4.5 @ Vandy bet 1.1u to win 1u
Miami/Oklahoma u42.5 bet 2.2u to win 2u
Purdue -29 v EIU bet 1.15u to win 1u
Illinois -18 v WIU bet 2.3u to win 2u
LSU ML -420 v V Tech bet 4.2u to win 1u
LSU -11 v V Tech bet 1.05u to win 1u
Oklahoma State -23.5 v Fla Atl bet 1.05u to win 1u
Nebraska -8 @ Nevada bet 1.04u to win 1u
Marshall +24 v WVU bet 1u to win 1.1u
Nevada +10 @ N'Western bet 1.02u to win 1u
Miami +11 @ Oklahoma bet 1.08u to win 1u
Buffalo +3.5 @ Temple bet 1.1u to win 1u
Virginia -17.5 v Duke bet 1.09u to win 1u
Bama -3.5 @ Vandy bet 1u to win 1.04u
Toledo +3 @ C Mich bet 1.06u to win 1u
Rice +7 @ Baylor bet 1u to win 1.02u
Utah St +24.5 @ Wyoming bet 1.03u to win 1u
San Jose St +19.5 @ K St bet 2.1u to win 2u
NC St +14 @ BC bet 1.05u to win 1u
Texas A&M -17 v Fresno st bet 1.07u to win 1u
Utah -7.5 v Air Force bet 2u to win 2u
UNC +5 @ ECU bet 1u to win 1.03u
Tennessee -10 v S Miss bet 1.1u to win 1u
TCU +9.5 @ Texas bet 1.04u to win 1u
Miss St -5.5 @ Tulane bet 1.09u to win 1u
UTEP +24.5 @ T Tech bet 1.06u to win 1u
NMST +7 @ New Mexico bet 1.09u to win 1u
UNLV +25.5 v Wisconsin bet 2.14u to win 2u
UL-Monroe +27 @ Clemson bet 1.1u to win 1u
Ohio -1 @ UL-Lafayette bet 1.06u to win 1u
Maryland -23 @ FIU bet 2.2u to win 2u
Memphis -3 @ Arkansas St bet 3.3u to win 3u
SMU -17 v N Texas bet 1.12u to win 1u
Miss St/Tulane o45.5 bet 1.02u to win 1u
Indiana/W Mich o60 bet 1.08u to win 1u
South Carolina/Georgia u46 bet 1.1u to win 1u
BYU/UCLA 046 bet 1.1u to win 1u
Notre Dame/Penn St u44 bet 1.1u to win 1u
Wisconsin/UNLV u50 bet 1.1u to win 1u


Oregon St -3 @ Cincy bet 1.1u to win 1u
Oregon St -4 @ Cincy bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS 34-3 Cincinnati
MTSU +38.5 @ L'Ville bet 1.1u to win 1u +WIN 58-42 L'ville
Rutgers -12.5 v Navy bet 1.1u to win 1u +WIN 41-24 Rutgers



Select #1 : College Football
Louisville 9/6/2007 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -60000 for Game
Select #2 : College Football
Rutgers 9/7/2007 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -1000 for Game
Select #3 : College Football
West Virginia 9/8/2007 11:00:01 AM - (EST)
Money Line -3400 for Game
Select #4 : College Football
Ohio State 9/8/2007 12:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -10000 for Game
Select #5 : College Football
Virginia 9/8/2007 12:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -1200 for Game
Select #6 : College Football
Wyoming 9/8/2007 2:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -4500 for Game
Select #7 : College Football
California 9/8/2007 2:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -600 for Game
Select #8 : College Football
Texas Tech 9/8/2007 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -5000 for Game
Select #9 : College Football
Hawaii 9/8/2007 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -8500 for Game
Select #10 : College Football
Wisconsin 9/8/2007 10:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -6000 for Game
Select #11 : College Football
Clemson 9/8/2007 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -7000 for Game
Select #12 : College Football
Florida 9/8/2007 6:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -6000 for Game
Select #13 : College Football
Oklahoma State 9/8/2007 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -3300 for Game
Select #14 : College Football
Maryland 9/8/2007 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line -4500 for Game
Bet 8u to win 5.92u



L'ville -14.5 v MTSU 2nd Half bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 20-7 L'ville
Cincy +3 v Oregon St 2nd Half bet 1.1u to win 1u +WIN 24-0 Cincy
L'ville/MTSU o36.5 2nd Half bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS 27 points
Rutgers -5.5 v Navy 2nd Half bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS 17-17

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Oh yeah, for those wondering, this is how my previous week went
I bet way too many overs as the scoring was 1.8 pts below what my model predicted. Things were good otherwise.

Year & Week 1 summary
bet 120.75 units
down 1.18 units
40-38-3 sides/totals
12-10-1 Game ATS
9-13-1 Game O/U
8-7-1 2nd Half ATS
11-8 2nd Half O/U
0-1 Favored Props (L -145)
1-0 Favored ML (W -700)
1-0 Favored Parlay (W -181)

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

also,
there was no way I planned on betting that many games

I had hoped to cutdown
but, the models were showing too many mispricings
seems like alot of overweighting of week one results

oh well...got the totals from 18 over and 3 under bets last week to the more normal 4 under and 3 over bets

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Also another addon
Georgia -3 1unit already got them at -5 earlier in week but feel this at -3 adds more value so added another unit on game. That should do it for the college weekend except for 2nd half plays.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Don't know how I missed this earlier, but I actually really like this pick. Well enough to make it my delayed POTW in fact:

Duke at Virginia -17 (Risk 2.86u to win 2.5u)
Pretty sure that you can chalk up the bad loss last week to the long road trip as UVA is 29-9 at home and 10-23 away under Al Groh. More recently, they're 8-4 ATS at home the last two years and 2-9 ATS on the road over the same period. Whether it's preparation or what, they just don't travel well. Also, there's no other real reason for them to get beaten so badly as they return 19 starters from last year's relatively decent squad.

One of the two road covers they did have over that time period was a 37-0 beating they gave Duke last year. Now granted, UVA did get lucky to win the turnover battle 5-1 that game, but Virginia has more reason to be improved than Duke this year anyway. The next closest team they faced talent-wise last year was UNC who they beat 23-0 at home. I'd look for something like a 34-10 UVA win here.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Jumping the bridge on UVA -1500

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

South Florida +7 -105
Bowling Green +17.5 -108
Missouri -6 +101
Western Michigan -1 +101
Temple -3.5 -105
Nebraska -8 -104
West Virginia -24 -107
Oregon +7 -106
Miami/Oklahoma u43 -104
Virginia -17.5 -110
Hawaii -27.5 -103
Texas El Paso +25 -105

Week 1, 7-3, +3.75 units
East Carolina +27.5 -108 W
Georgia Tech +1 -103 W
UCLA -16.5 -106 W
Oklahoma State o55.5 -110 L
Tennessee U o54.5 -105 W
Kansas St +13.5 -105 W
Kansas St o45.5 -110 L
Illinois o56 -110 W
Virginia -3 -105 L
Clemson u45.5 -110 W

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Myturn-

any feeling on penn st at -17?
or florida st at -34?

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Well you convinced me on this pick enough to throw a unit on it. Thanks iggy

Add
Virgina -17 1unit

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
58 in a row at home, 5 Nat'l titles, beat 8 #1 teams in a row without a loss, Okla, Neb, FSU, Fla, PSU, ND, Houston, Alabama is a home-field advantage.

20-1? I scoff. Scoff scoff.

Of course, things fell off a little under Coker...

[/ QUOTE ]

http://static.flickr.com/118/283914052_463f023af7.jpg

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Temple -2.5 1.1u to win 1 unit.
BG +17, 1u
Okla -10,
OregSt -3, LOSS
PSU -14, 1u
Oregon +7, 1u, another unit at 8.5
Rutgers -13, 1u. winner
BYU +7.5, 1u.
Miami u43.5, 1 unit. I hope this goes up so I can load up on it. Only fear is Freeman is so bad even a top 10 Miami D can't keep it close.

9-3 ytd, +5.85u.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Yo MT2R, I'm too lazy to do it myself. How many total units you trying to make and how many units are you risking?

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Bowling Green +18.5 @ Michigan St 2 Units
Nevada +11.5 @ Northwestern 1 Unit
Miami +12 and Under 42 Parlay 1 Unit

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

bg +18.5
neb/wake ov 50
bama/vandy ov 48 large
akron/osu un 48

akron/osu un 25 1h
mia/ok un 21.5 1h

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nebraska -8 -104

[/ QUOTE ]

Late word is there's a ton of Husker fans at the game. Estimates on Husker blogs are as high as 60-70% of the total. That seems high, but who knows.

That being said upgrade by pick on Neb -8.5 from 2u to 4u. Go Huskers!

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

POW Neb-8

CMU-3
KSU-18
Akron+28
Mich -7
Col+15
Kent state +13
Troy+26-

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

NCAA FOOTBALL INVESTMENTS, WEEK TWO
1 unit on each

Bowling Green +18 over Michigan St
Oregon +7 over Michigan
TCU +9 over Texas
Wake Forest +8.5 over Nebraska
BYU +7.5 over UCLA
Georgia -3.5 over South Carolina

WEEK ONE = 2-2, -0.1 units, W/L = 50%, ROI = -5%
SEASON: 2-2, -0.1 units, W/L = 50%, ROI = -5%

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

enjoy it while you can GT fans. Shannon will have the Canes back on top soon. Not this year, however. He is a recruiting machine, we have 17 commitments already from summer after Coker only got 14 in 5 years. Ranked #1 in recruits for 2008 by at least one ranking system, top 5 in all of them.
Calais Campbell and Kenny Phillips are 2 of the top 10 players in the country. I just hope the O shows up v Okla today at least a little.