Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Nice post, definitely some things that we talked about in the other atlantis thread, and some late stage stuff for me. Thanks.

PS ~ Has anyone taken you up on that $1000 bet. I might be interested, I know you're good, but come on, MiniStep 1 -> MiniStep 4 on $30?

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Check out the structure and then look at what you need to do to stay in the system.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

ofcourse there is a lot of variance in the DSs, but you guys are being totally unreasonable and dont understand the concept of EV. Not that I want more 2+2ers in these things, but there is plenty of dead money at almost every single table in the DSs including the second tables... I am 0/5 on the final tables and ive blown a lot of money playing them, but they are still +++EV and a good deal despite large variance.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

i think they're +EV because i think i'll win more than 1-68, but i dont have the bankroll to keep trrying, and the competition is harder than the saturday sat.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

The DS's are kind of deceptive imo.. on paper it looks good, 81 players, and you only have to go through 16 players (8 first + 8 second).. but it's tough in a sense that getting through 2 short tables is really difficult imo, because so much can go wrong.. I don't think the competition is that good until you get to FT, most qualified through the 5.50R's, but to successively win 2 tables is difficult.. of course it really depends, my short table game isn't that good so I would gravitate towards the MTT structure where I can avoid playing 3-5 person tables.

if ur ST play and HU play is really good, then it's probably a good tourney to be in.. I find that a lot of people eliminate themselves and even if you haven't made a move you'll always be within striking distance of chip leader on your table.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Of course they're +EV. Any tournament with dead money is +EV to even an average player, and there's plenty of dead money to be found in those.

They're just nowhere near as +EV as any other similar stakes sat format that pays more people.

edit: to reconcile this with what I said earlier, what I actually mean is that, when you play these, you have an edge over some guy just plopping down 175, but at the second table, you will, on average, be a dog. The result is that you are +EV overall but with very wild swings at the second table and probably not much to show for it.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]
-As a minor aside, if you are trying to qualify for something *very* cheaply or build a bankroll, the Party Steps (especially miniSteps) are your friend, much more than you would possibly expect*;
[*I am open to a $1000 or more wager that I can make it from a miniStep 1 (5+1) to a miniStep 5 (400+30) playing on $30 or less. I'd make it less than that but I've gotta leave room for aces getting cracked. Of course, this blatantly ignores $/hour.]


[/ QUOTE ]

Can you elaborate on this? I looked at these and felt that using my own scrap-paper accounting, I could do my own "steps" plan with regular SnGs. What's the advantage of using their setup? Is there something in the payout plan that I'm missing? -tx

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]

2)Conversely, sats that pay one seat either reward SNG players over MTT players, are just plain bad value, or both, due to the decreased edge you have over the field and the decreased value of a large stack/proper pushbotting. The Stars regular 33r (which has 400+ players and pays out 1 trip) downright blows.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is the one I got second in. It technically pays out as many seats as the prize pool covers. The rest of the pool is doled out in $650 chunks -- essentially buyins to the direct sat. I think something like 10 people won the $650. Does that change your mind at all?

Oh, and when I played there were only 250 players or so.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]
when you play these, you have an edge over some guy just plopping down 175, but at the second table, you will, on average, be a dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have not played any of the Atlantis DS's (can't go [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]), but I have to disagree with this assessment if it also refers to WSOP DS's. Based on my experience, second tables generally have 1-4 strong players and 4-7 average (or worse) players. I can think of numerous 2+2er's who should be +EV even at the second table of a DS.

Having said this, I do not plan to qualify for next year's WSOP via DS. While I will probably play a handful of DS's, my plan is to play as many TS/QS as possible since these are much, much weaker than the DS's (which are very beatable IMHO).

Small sample bias applies, of course, but I'm pretty confident that what I'm saying is true relative to the WSOP stuff. You may well be right about Atlantis, though. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Later,
Che

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Athandar, nice thread. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

X

Thank you adanthar
 

Took your advice and played the 5.50 this afternoon, squeeked in, took the 175 and played the 73+7, and qualified tonight.. wouldn't have went that route without your advice.

PS. both games were pretty soft and good format.. the turbo was heavily a matter of survival and the 73 was just picking spots, thanks.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am open to a $1000 or more wager that I can make it from a miniStep 1 (5+1) to a miniStep 5 (400+30) playing on $30 or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got mail.

Everett

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Hey Adanthar, thanks for the info. I was wondering what you think about the 3-table SNG to the $1 Mil guaranteed on PP. Its a $35 buyin sat for the $640 main event. It's only got a spot for first, but it pays something like 160, 90, 64 to the next three spots, meaning that there's at least a few bucks left if you don't take first.

Thanks,
Will

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

I would also be very interested in hearing opinions about the 3-table qualifier to the 1 million guaranteed. I might give it a try tonight.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

I haven't played those...they are probably soft enough and the payout schedule seems OK, but I'd still rather just play the MTT qualifiers. Having said that, the money up top is significant enough to make it at least not terrible so long as they're scared of losing enough to make a real bubble.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

I would just like to add...

The Stars $700k $5+r sats are nearly 3.5x more profitable than the $500k $3+r. I have a -EV rate in the $3+r because I estimate it to be $10-$12 an hour but I play every $5+r I can because I estimate it to be around $34-$42 an hour which is the same as I make in my NL cash game but the sat. is much easier.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aside from that, there are times when if the guy to your left is playing correctly, you will get free chips no matter what he has. You should use those times liberally, because they are literally the difference between winning and losing very very often. Of course, if he's a donk, he might eventually call with KJo for 2/3 of his stack; like I said, know the tendencies.

In general, though, if you're 4'th with 18 to go, stacks are deep (>15 BB average or so) and you lose the seat, something went very wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed - I stay low, play my EV+ hands my EV+ situation. The every popular blind steal that will not cripple me. I attack the small stacks (that will not cripple me).

As for attacking the large stack ... that always seems to hurt me. Maybe because I have lacked the confidence to attack him properly.

For example, BB is chip leader and I am 16th, (18 left, 15 paid). I have ATo on the button. Assuming I can coast for a while 16th and I am not stack < 10 x BB - I fold 8 out of 10 times here. The other 2 times, I'd raise 2.5 and 3.5 times the BB. Pushing here, IMO, is out of the question. Others love to push here.

One thing I have taken to heart - after the 1st break until bubble time - I will calculate the mean chips needed to be a qualifier.

i.e. 1000 Entries, 100 get in. No-rebuy, everyone starts with T1500. total chips = 1,500,000. Mean chip count when 100 are left = 15,000. Now, you and both know that a chip leader or a few more are going to have the majority of the chips.

Therefore, when I hit a certain count, say 30K, I will cruise, and really just watch people drop. Seeing less than 10% of any flops.

Even better, Chip leader and #2 in chips now have 200,000 of that 1.5 million. I keep an eye on them. Are they sitting out? Yes? GREAT! Now you have 1,300,000 chips for 98 people. Brings your mean down to ~13,300. You can sit pretty at 20K, even 17K

Those chips are dead. Are they attacking? Ok, stay at that 25-30K goal, 15K+ is good, but under 10K, we may need to attack a bit and find our EV+ plays.


If you can sit for two hours and make money by not working ... you would do so right!?

Let me put it this way. You and Donk1 have 7,000 in chips. You are in 16th and 17th place out of 17 left. 16 get paid. Blinds are 1000 & 2000 (no ante to keep it easy).

1) You look at position? Who has to act first - assuming you both fold out, no one else leaves the tourn ... who would be standing?

2) You need to Push EV+ hands until you have enough chips to let someone else be the ginny pig.

3) Do not challenge the larger stack. Whoa - YES - I said it. Here's my thinking -- I have 7K, Seat 1 has 100K - he can lost that 7K and than another 14K to me and still go to bed gaining a seat. He will call you with anything from K2o to 22, to 56s!? Yes! On the other hand, Seat K, has 21 in chips, taking 7K from him puts him into defensive mode. He will not call unless he has those top few EV+ hands, you know um, AA, KK, etc.

But, I have found that having a chip goal in the above the mean keeps me quiet and I avoid unneeded gambles.

Ego is out the window!!!

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]
if I was offered a choice between a 1000 player field that paid out 100 seats and a 10 player field that paid one, I would pay three times the vig to play in the first one. Yes, I honestly think the difference is that great.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think the 2 table steps are better because more spots get to go up a level? Do enough people play these?

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]
1)Satellites are a lot more valuable when they pay lots of seats, don't take very long and have lots of dead money. The Stars turbo rebuys are probably the best sats in online poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just wanted to say thanks to the OP for this thread. I read it a few months ago and began wondering if the $3 re-buy was really the best way to win seats to the $215. I finally decided to take the plunge into the $11 R Turbo sat to the Stars $215 and won a seat on my first shot. I was feeling lucky, so I signed up for a $27 R Turbo to the WSOP $650 Qualifier, and won a seat there, too. Still feeling lucky, I went one more go for a $16 R Turbo sat to the $370 Super Sat to the $25K Bellagio event... and won that one too.

Obviously, this is mostly due to short term luck, but I was ultimately very surprised at how soft these Sats are. I ended up donking off my $650 seat because I didn't "unregister" in time (the sat ended about 11 minutes before the $650 began and I didn't realze it and got there too late to unregister), but that's life. I still ended up having my best single day online yet (even including my donked $650 seat).

Thanks OP for the bankroll building tips and the encouragement to try the Turbo re-buy sats on Stars.

Cheers!

JoshNjuice

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

I dont play very many DS but from what ive played the $160 are very hard but the $27 to the PS 1k event were very soft.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

adanthar,

TY for writing such a great guide for playing in qualifying satellites.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

I'm interested in hearing more about turbo sats. I just recently found out how juicy the 3r sats for the 215 on PS were on my own. I didn't know this thread existed until today but I did have a pretty good sat player teach me the right way to play them. I've won a seat 4/7 times I've tried in the 3r for profit of 700+. The only thing is those things take for freaking ever. I'd love to try the 11r turbo sats but I have no experience in turbos and only have a BR of 1k. Would that be wise? Thanks guys!

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

BUMP. More please.

If this bump doesn't get responses I'll throw some thoughts out there to spur it. But there are many opinions worth hearing before mine on this subject and it's pretty topical right now. Satellite experts, speak up!

- Clueless satellite player who recently realized he'll have enough time off to play the Main Event.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Here's my advice, FWIW.

I qualified for the WSOP ME for '05 and last night for '06 via Stars Double Shootout. Last year I hit a heater, made 3 straight FTs, and got in on the last one. This year, it took me about 10-11 tries to finally get it (with 3 FT's)

That said, THE VERY BEST WSOP Double Shootouts to play are the weekend variety that have the massive feeder 5.50 Turbo Rebuy feeders that fill up 60 or so of the 81 seats. Many of these players stumble into the DS and spaz all over themselves when they get there. Playing against these weaker players enables you to accumulate chips more quickly and give you a better shot at moving on. Even at the Final Table there are some satelite fish that find their way there. All 3 of my DS FT's this year were on the weekends. This is contrasted with the weeknight DS's that have only about 20 players fed from the 5.50 Rebuys. The other 61 that sign up are putting up $160 themselves, which increases the liklihood of competent players that can spare the $160 from their rolls. Further, from an anecdotal viewpoint, I attest he weekday versions are appreciably harder.

In the DS's, I cannot over emphasize the need to play LAG and acquire chips early. There is no difference between 2nd and 8th, so don't feel bad about early flameouts. Build a big stack and don't be afraid to wield it.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

I qualified for atlantis in a $3R to a $650. I won't say it was easy, I had alot of stiff competition in the $650 but, I survived sitting with michael1123(might be wrong #) and jack9ofclubs(supposedly tj cloutier) for alot of the tourney.
I will agree though that for the sunday million the $11r and 33r are the best ways to go. the only good thing about the double shootouts is that if they are not totally full you will money for top 5-7 usually if you don't get the 1st place seat.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm interested in hearing more about turbo sats. I just recently found out how juicy the 3r sats for the 215 on PS were on my own. I didn't know this thread existed until today but I did have a pretty good sat player teach me the right way to play them. I've won a seat 4/7 times I've tried in the 3r for profit of 700+. The only thing is those things take for freaking ever. I'd love to try the 11r turbo sats but I have no experience in turbos and only have a BR of 1k. Would that be wise? Thanks guys!

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't play the $10r if you no experience in turbos, play a few 45man turbos first and memorize the pushbot charts, then play the $10r. They are very soft, but you'll be worthless without turbo experience. I was 2/2 on my first 2, netting $380, but then lost 2 more. I'll keep playing them though.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Would someone who has played a few of each please compare the Sunday $650 field to the $215 million field? Higher buyin, but even more people who satellite in plus WSOP factor = roughly equivalent fields? Stronger but not in proportion to the buyin difference?

Thanks.

Edit: Use any other comparison measure that you think is helpful. I just want to get some sense of the strength of field.

Also, any comparison of this tourney to similar tourneys on other sites would be welcome as well. My WSOP plan is to set aside $X to play these large field/many seat supersats. X not yet determined, sites not yet determined.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

To LFTV, FWIW I feel the 650 is harder than 215 field, because even though WSOP factor helps and all i feel too many of the fish will go through the smaller buy-in roads like DS, 33R, maybe the 320. Still it's almost certainly weaker in avg than a reg 650.

Almost on the same topic as your previous post. Do you feel this assertion is true:
WSOP sats gets fishier as WSOP approach?

My logic is the best player qualify earlier and the fish gets more and more excited as WSOP approach so they dump more and more money into the sats. Both argument would tend to make later sats easier.
Is this flawed logic? Also, can players who already qualified keep farming them and get credited the 11k$ directly to their acct?

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

LearnedfromTV, I have to tell you, I played in the Sunday $650 for the first time yesterday, and it was not as donkish as I expected. 486 players, I would say about 225 or so from Sats., the rest bought in in the last hour or so, so they obviously paid the $650. The blinds are 30 minutes, and it is a grueling tourny. It took six hours for me to go out in 43rd (top 27 won seats). Getting chips was like pulling teeth and I didnt experience any of the donkish overplayed hands you see early in the Sunday $215. But as I say, I've only played the $650 once, so take my observations with a grain of salt if you wish. Overall based on my experience so far, I would say the $650 field is much stronger than the 1 mil. and much much tighter play.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

I've noticed the same thing. I play Poker Stars and Empire; the SNGs are Ok and I play OK in them (in the money about 40% of the time) but I fare far better in Low tournament with modest buyins (I'm working my way up) where the top 200 or so get paid off.

I think that the high number of LAGs and donks contributes to success for tighter players, without pitting too many TAGs and sharks versus each other.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

I am new and I am glad I read before playing alot of MTT's


(Thnks alot)

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Adanthar, do you really like turbo sats? Isn't it more about luck?? And, I've read somewhere that 3R to the Million are good?? Great post BTW

Thanks
Jordi

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Does strategy change for higher buyin rebuy satellites? I'm going to be playing in a live $100 rebuy into a $10K event and I'm not sure what strategy to apply yet. It'll probably be 100 people, 4-5 seats.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]
Adanthar, do you really like turbo sats? Isn't it more about luck?? And, I've read somewhere that 3R to the Million are good?? Great post BTW

Thanks
Jordi

[/ QUOTE ]

BUMPing a good pertinent thread...

I'll speak just for my limited experience with some of the $2/R, $3/R, and $5/R turbo rebuys on Stars, but they are extremely soft, even with the very fast structure. You often lose 25-35% of the field before break because people try to play on a single buy-in and lots of people play incredibly badly after the break. A big group of people underestimate how quickly the blinds eat their stack and get blinded away by not building their stack large enough. Another group of people get a hold of a stack large enough to win a ticket, but then get involved unnecessarily in pots and piss it away, not realizing that after a certain point, it's proper strategy to throw away any hand.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Thanks for bumping -- fantastic thread.

I was wondering if there are any basic rules of thumb about how large a stack you need to just fold into the money. I've tried a few sats lately and feel like I'm miscalculating in the mid-late stages (well before the bubble).

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

So whats the best way to qualify for Aruba, if all UB sats generally pay 1 seat?

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]
So whats the best way to qualify for Aruba, if all UB sats generally pay 1 seat?

[/ QUOTE ]

be RandALLin

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Do you know of any good sats like the ones you mention on full tilt?

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you know of any good sats like the ones you mention on full tilt?

[/ QUOTE ]

On sundays for tilt there are tons of sats to the 500K guaranteed, the $24+2, and the $50+5 are both pretty easy. Lots of times I'm able to win 2 seats with about $150 or so.

Re: Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events
 

Thanks for the wisom Adanthar, this was exactly what I was looking for; playing in one of the FTP 750k Sats tonight which I think will have a field of 1000+.