Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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the whole "whitelimes hand is face up so aba will bluff" is imo wrong... at these stakes, guys are definitely going to be erring on the side of hero calls. basically every draw missed, so this is really easy for rugby to fake a missed draw, overbet knowing that whitelime is thinking "man i cant let these guys push me around".

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seems kinda inconsistent with the flop/turn play, but i never watch him play so i don't know.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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With Aba's aggro image, I don't think he ever checks this board twice with a set...

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think a few levels higher

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Villain is whitelime. Probably scared money at these stakes (I could be wrong), and probably doesn't want to play a huge pot with Aba.

That, and Aba is normally very aggro.

How often is Whitelime going to call a C/R in a small pot on the turn against ABA to make playing a set like this profitable with his image?

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

Option 1:

1) Take the top 1/3 of your hand range
2) Don't fold with it
3) Profit

Option 2:

1) Get into a leveling war with Aba
2) Win the 'paper rock scissors' game
3) Profit

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

The % of the time that he's bluffing here is not higher than the % of time he's value betting imo. I don't think aba would be over betting more often here on a bluff than on a made hand he wants paid off.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

Would he flat-call preflop with AA from the SB?

Tough spot, but it just doesn't feel like a bluff, since you both know naked trips are almost impossible for him. So I think he can beat or tie AK.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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Option 1:

1) Take the top 1/3 of your hand range
2) Don't fold with it
3) Profit

Option 2:

1) Get into a leveling war with Aba
2) Win the 'paper rock scissors' game
3) Profit

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Wow, an absolutely perfect summary of the situation.

Incidentally it's interesting to see how game theory is slowly percolating down into more and more strategy discussions.

I actually have a feeling Aba is not bluffing often enough in this situation, given his solid style of play (compared to a random Euro player who is probably bluffing too often here), but unfortunately someone already spilled the beans about what his hand was so I might just be biased.

I have seen a couple of hands where Aba goes for a big overbet value bet when he thinks it's hard to put him on a big hand (in this case because it's really hard to put him on a big king, in other cases because he bluffed earlier streets and then bdoored a straight or something.)

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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I'm not a high stakes player by any means, but I've watched sbrugby play quite a bit. I doubt very much that he's overbetting without a big hand here. 3 nines a the least, more likely a boat. He's not calling from the blind with a worse King, he probably checks the river with a marginal hand. You're obviously only beating a bluff, and you've repped a big hand so I don't think sbrugby is going to throw $30,000 away without a stronger one. (i.e. fold river.)

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I've seen ABA do this with air and big hands, the interesting thing about this hand is that ABA probably thinks whitelime is somewhat scared money in this game, and that's a hell of a river bet to call with just a K.

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which is why i lean toward a call

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

my first thought was call but then i realized that he probably thinks you're scared money so his usual "seems to have it when he overbets" pattern doesn't matter much. also, next time before you play you might want to hire Salazar as a consultant: he really does seem to have the sickest reads on these games.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

I don't know how you call this. He knows you have KQ or KJ almost every time. And how often is an overbet from him like that a bluff.

Really dissapointing if you called.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

Aba knows you have to fold 2/3 of the time to make a bluff here profitable. he also obviously knows you have a K. you're a thinking player who is capable of making a big call down here. i dont think he would ever think he could get you to fold more than 2/3 of the time here...

i'd lay it down

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

dunno if itd be worse to have my parents dissapointed in me, or BLdSWtTRs.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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dunno if itd be worse to have my parents dissapointed in me, or BLdSWtTRs.

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def worse with bldswttrs, since when he is disappointed in you, its bc you probably just lost alot of moniez.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

I like your line up until the river and I would fold on the river. He knows these bets get looked up a lot, he's not trying to get you to fold. Also, I think he can do this with AK, which definitely makes it a fold IMO.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

it's not a bluff because he can't represent anything. he knows you have a king as people say but you also know he doesn't have a nine. you have to give aba respect because he's good and knows what you have and just fold, you're going to put 30k into the pot to protect the 6k you called with on the turn?

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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I don't know how you call this. He knows you have KQ or KJ almost every time. And how often is an overbet from him like that a bluff.

Really dissapointing if you called.

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Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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I'm not a high stakes player by any means, but I've watched sbrugby play quite a bit. I doubt very much that he's overbetting without a big hand here. 3 nines a the least, more likely a boat. He's not calling from the blind with a worse King, he probably checks the river with a marginal hand. You're obviously only beating a bluff, and you've repped a big hand so I don't think sbrugby is going to throw $30,000 away without a stronger one. (i.e. fold river.)

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i agree with this, these guys like to overbet with huge hands

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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i avoid spots like this vs solid aggros by betting the flop or checking behind again on the turn

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Why? I understand your logic of betting the flop but once whitelime checks why would he check behind again?

..

I'd also add that as played whitelime's hand is pretty faceup.

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answered your own question. =)

instead of asking why he should check behind, ask why he should bet the turn. i cant come up with a good reason to.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

value

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

lol what hands are you getting value from ?

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

any pair < a king

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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I don't know how you call this. He knows you have KQ or KJ almost every time. And how often is an overbet from him like that a bluff.

Really dissapointing if you called.

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i also would like to add that aba's image of whitelime is probably: solid thinking mid-high stakes player taking a shot, and that is very important. aba also knows that whitelime perceives aba as a very tricky tag, capable of moves.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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any pair < a king

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and any random hand he decides to cr bluff with

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

am i the only one here that noticed there was next to no money in the pot on the turn and with whitelime not playing at this level ever, there cant really be any meta game here... so why would sb make a play for the pot???? seems like he got a boat everytime..

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

omg!

but omg aba might know whitelime knows this, and he'll bluff!

but omg aba might know etc etc and he won't bluff!

omg!

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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am i the only one here that noticed there was next to no money in the pot on the turn and with whitelime not playing at this level ever, there cant really be any meta game here... so why would sb make a play for the pot???? seems like he got a boat everytime..

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I agree with your logic, but I don't think he needs a boat to make that kind of value bet- just something that beats or ties AK.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

results??

ps; aba had AA?

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

i think this is a pretty clear fold.
although in the heat of the moment i can understand if you called.

i think from villian's perspective you either have a big K or a big draw.

if you missed a big draw value is gone anyways as you're prolly not going to be bluff shoving the river since this is higher then you normally play and you seem to be winner in the game.

he prolly figures his best way to get value from you is to go for the overbet and hope for a hero call.

the only reason i could see him overbet bluffing is the fact that you are winner in the game and sometimes ppl who are up good try and lock it up.

i guess it boils down to whether he thinks you'll fold a AA in this spot.

all in all i think its a fold, but i've def. made worse calls in my life.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

It's a great play by him, whatever his holding.

IIRC it's not abnormal for him to overbet in spots like this.

i.e., you seem weak, ck/ck the flop, bet the turn, he raises pretty big on the turn and you just call.


I think his range makes it almost impossible for you to correctly call this bet.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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The only way to solve the problem here is to know what both players were thinking at the moment. I think pretty much everyone agree that your hand if face up been a Kx. And ABa knows that too. You probably know that Aba knows too, and he probably knows that you know that he know. So that's why it's so tricky... wat was eh thinking?

You realy have to interpret is over bet with all the above here, is he trying to push you of a K knowing that you know, or he knows that you know that he know so he's value betting because you'll see that as a "Iwant you to fold" and then call?

In both case I wouldn't get into that game with aba because you probably loose either way... but If I had to pick I would go for the fold!! odds are not good, you need to be right alot of the time here

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I like this post a lot. I don't think anything else needs to be said.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

Keep in mind that in putting you on Kx, and realizing the drawy board and semi-brick river, Aba is probably expecting you to call a normal sized bet, yet he opted for a larger one.

He's very capable of making a large semi-thin VB, but the hands that can do that (AK, AA) usually 3bet preflop.

That said, I would still fold.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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Anyone else surprised that Aba played this hand so tricky?

I think he normally loses a ton of value playing his hand this way....

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When I first heard of the hand I thought it was a bad call by you, but I think it's pretty close, given your hand is mostly transparent.

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please stop posting results you N-posts retards

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Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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i think this is a pretty clear fold.
although in the heat of the moment i can understand if you called.

i think from villian's perspective you either have a big K or a big draw.

if you missed a big draw value is gone anyways as you're prolly not going to be bluff shoving the river since this is higher then you normally play and you seem to be winner in the game.

he prolly figures his best way to get value from you is to go for the overbet and hope for a hero call.

the only reason i could see him overbet bluffing is the fact that you are winner in the game and sometimes ppl who are up good try and lock it up.

i guess it boils down to whether he thinks you'll fold a AA in this spot.

all in all i think its a fold, but i've def. made worse calls in my life.

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I like this post.

I have a question. If we held AA here, does that change much or are we going to assume that Aba is not overbetting a hand for value that isn't a minimum of trip 9s?

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

I think it's a lot closer with AA. Order of likelihood is probably set, trips, AA/AK, but I think AA/AK is definitely in his hand range here.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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I don't know how you call this. He knows you have KQ or KJ almost every time. And how often is an overbet from him like that a bluff.

Really dissapointing if you called.

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if he puts us on KQ or KJ, then wouldnt that be a good reason for him to bluff? there really isnt much to comment on this hand except i am happy i dont play these stakes.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

I think people who are 'scared money' are often more self-conscious of the fact that other people view them as scared money and are therefore actually more likely to call big bets than to fold to them. I don't think aba would expect WL to fold to this bet with a decent K. And definitely not with AA. If you were aba, would you try to bluff against KQ here?

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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I think people who are 'scared money' are often more self-conscious of the fact that other people view them as scared money and are therefore actually more likely to call big bets than to fold to them. I don't think aba would expect WL to fold to this bet with a decent K. And definitely not with AA. If you were aba, would you try to bluff against KQ here?

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unless he knows that he knows that he knows!!!!! god poker is so hard!

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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I think people who are 'scared money' are often more self-conscious of the fact that other people view them as scared money and are therefore actually more likely to call big bets than to fold to them. I don't think aba would expect WL to fold to this bet with a decent K. And definitely not with AA. If you were aba, would you try to bluff against KQ here?

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Hands like this are such a big problem becuase it's totally dependant on the number of levels of thinking that the hero and villain view each other as operating at. To answer your last question, if I'm aba here and I can't beat KQ and I view whitelime as slightly scared money then yeah, I'm gonna bluff at the pot becuase I think that he's gonna have to do a lot of thinking and then still make a very tough call if he wants to get my money.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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I don't know how you call this. He knows you have KQ or KJ almost every time. And how often is an overbet from him like that a bluff.

Really dissapointing if you called.

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if he puts us on KQ or KJ, then wouldnt that be a good reason for him to bluff? there really isnt much to comment on this hand except i am happy i dont play these stakes.

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no because aba can't represent any reasonable hand to be betting that big, thus hs really has it

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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Aba knows you have to fold 2/3 of the time to make a bluff here profitable. he also obviously knows you have a K. you're a thinking player who is capable of making a big call down here. i dont think he would ever think he could get you to fold more than 2/3 of the time here...

i'd lay it down

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best argument for laying it down so far.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

ty for posting, interesting hand...