Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
CO's bet (with the big stack) smells like "no one is interested in this pot, let me see if I can pick it off with a bet". I'm more concerned with MJ, but I like the raise to 5000.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I don't think he's put us all in with any 2 here. Our check on the flop (I still like a bet there) followed by a raise on the turn looks string to me if I were in his shoes.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

This is where is gets really tricky. Thusfar, I would have played it the same way. (I actually would have raised T500 pf)

I don't know how you can change the original range of hands. He could have anything from a set to a straight to QQ.

With this type of bet, I would definitely raise and define my hand and see if he actually has a hand. I am a tad nervous of MJ coming into the pot behind me, but if you played scared all the time, you may as well play hopscotch.

I would put in a raise. I would have to make the raise "appear" like I have no FE. I would rep a set of a made straight and make him think that I feared a flush. Again, the tricky part is making the bet the right amount to make him laydown a weak hand, thinking that I have no FE. But, I know that if I am played with, I would have to fold and lose some but not all my stack.

Thus, I would make it 3500 to go. This would give him the wrong odds to call if he was fishing for a flush or a straight. If I bet anymore, I may as well go AI. So, we need an amount that makes him think I am serious but does not pot commit us.

Raise him 3500, fold if he reraises. If he comes out firing on the river, you have to fold.


Stipe

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
CO's bet (with the big stack) smells like "no one is interested in this pot, let me see if I can pick it off with a bet". I'm more concerned with MJ, but I like the raise to 5000.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I don't think he's put us all in with any 2 here. Our check on the flop (I still like a bet there) followed by a raise on the turn looks string to me if I were in his shoes.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you caught his hand in the cookie jar he's not thinking your raise looks strange, he's just looking to fold.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I don't think we have enough FE for it to work. Excluding re-raise and simplifing the river action I see this scenario:
<ul type="square">[*]Raise 5k: (1-y)% of time villains fold =&gt; net 3500[*]Raise 5k: y% of time CO calls and MJ folds...
(3/11) river a win. chk, bet, fold =&gt; net 8500
(8/11) river a loss. bet, fold =&gt; net -5000[/list]
We break even when
(1-y)(3500) + y[ (3/11)(8500) + (8/11)(-5000) ] = 0
y = 72.6%

So in this simple example we need a fold 27.3% of the time to break even. I don't think we are getting it nor can we make up the difference in the river play.

--Jubei

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I fold and it's not even close.
The CO is playing tight so we are up against a made hand. No raise is driving him out.
I only have 600 invested in this hand, made a mistake on the flop,not getting odds for my draws, and all of my outs are not clean.
Throwing half my stack a this seems suicidal. Now you are trying to bluff two people, one of which likely has a made hand and the other you have no more information on than you did after he called your initial raise and is yet to act.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold and it's not even close.
The CO is playing tight so we are up against a made hand. No raise is driving him out.
I only have 600 invested in this hand, made a mistake on the flop,not getting odds for my draws, and all of my outs are not clean.
Throwing half my stack a this seems suicidal. Now you are trying to bluff two people, one of which likely has a made hand and the other you have no more information on than you did after he called your initial raise and is yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, i can't imagine worse logic or more of a lack of coherent thought process. take this how you will, but thinking like this makes you the epitome of dead money in a large event.

how can you sleep at night with all those monsters under your bed? Why do you think that you have no knowledge of MJ's hand now that he's checked twice on a T94Q board with a flush draw out?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I am completely baffled by those advocating a fold. You are getting 2.3:1 on your money with 15 outs (possibly more, possibly less). So, even without betting on the river this is a call. Add the probability that there will be river action, and it is obviously a situation you want to be involved in. Additionally, why on earth did we check the flop if we are going to fold on a dream card turn???

To those that advocate a raise... This would be a pretty lame bluff that gets snapped a hell off a lot more than a flop bluff. There is so much that he can call/push if we bluff here TT,99,44,KJ,J8,QT,T9,Q9,QJ are all possible holdings that can call a bluff. Unlike the flop, this board is NOT a good board to bluff into. Raising here does one thing: it commits half our stack on a 35% shot if he flat calls, and 100% of our stack on a 35% draw if he pushes. I like royal draws as much as the next guy, but I'm not about to cripple myself by betting the farm on the Royals to beat the Red Sox.

This is a flat call. I agree with those who have said that MJ is done with hand. I certainly hope that he doesn't wake up with a monster, but I can still reduce my hand to 11 outs and redo the math based on KJ for MJ and whatever he decides to raise. Additionally, it would be madness to bet on the river if we miss.

CSC

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold and it's not even close.
The CO is playing tight so we are up against a made hand. No raise is driving him out.
I only have 600 invested in this hand, made a mistake on the flop,not getting odds for my draws, and all of my outs are not clean.
Throwing half my stack a this seems suicidal. Now you are trying to bluff two people, one of which likely has a made hand and the other you have no more information on than you did after he called your initial raise and is yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]horrible, and like Exit said, it really doesnt matter what you have invested this hand up to this point.

i call and see what he does/comes on the river

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I agree that a fold is laughable, I make a large raise to 5500 or so.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

My .02

I put CO on 2 connected broadway or smallish pp. I think he has a pair o' Qs, Ts or smaller, and reaally wants us to fold, the flop action having smelled of weakness. He might have 2 pr on the flop, though, as QT is not totally out of the question.

I'd raise to 3750, which I think would represent trips.

that puts about 7250 in the pot, with 15 outs I call an allin re-raise.

I think the raise gets me HU with the CO or buys the pot

If CO calls raise: On the river, if I hit, I min-raise any bet, to try to get him to push. If checked to, I bet 2500, hoping he has a srt8 and thinks I'm trying to buy. If I miss, though, I have to give up, I still have 7000-ish chips.

Might not even be 0.02 worth, I'm not all that good this.

Regards

Gar

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I would just call. If I had about 7000 chips, I would raise. I would probably not bluff the river because a turn slowplay seems unlikely considering the coordinatedness of the board. What I mean is that it's unlikely Im slowplaying a set on the turn on a board of QT9 etc, and our opponent could probably deduce this.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
CO's bet (with the big stack) smells like "no one is interested in this pot, let me see if I can pick it off with a bet". I'm more concerned with MJ, but I like the raise to 5000.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I don't think he's put us all in with any 2 here. Our check on the flop (I still like a bet there) followed by a raise on the turn looks string to me if I were in his shoes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Should read "strong". Edit time elapsed.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am completely baffled by those advocating a fold. You are getting 2.3:1 on your money with 15 outs (possibly more, possibly less). So, even without betting on the river this is a call. Add the probability that there will be river action, and it is obviously a situation you want to be involved in. Additionally, why on earth did we check the flop if we are going to fold on a dream card turn???

To those that advocate a raise... This would be a pretty lame bluff that gets snapped a hell off a lot more than a flop bluff. There is so much that he can call/push if we bluff here TT,99,44,KJ,J8,QT,T9,Q9,QJ are all possible holdings that can call a bluff. Unlike the flop, this board is NOT a good board to bluff into. Raising here does one thing: it commits half our stack on a 35% shot if he flat calls, and 100% of our stack on a 35% draw if he pushes. I like royal draws as much as the next guy, but I'm not about to cripple myself by betting the farm on the Royals to beat the Red Sox.

This is a flat call. I agree with those who have said that MJ is done with hand. I certainly hope that he doesn't wake up with a monster, but I can still reduce my hand to 11 outs and redo the math based on KJ for MJ and whatever he decides to raise. Additionally, it would be madness to bet on the river if we miss.

CSC

[/ QUOTE ]

nice post. i'm reconsidering.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
nice post. i'm reconsidering.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, i might be moving over to the flatcall side too.. i think raising is +EV.. just calling looks like it's more.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I call. I am not sure of a range, but i would say that he is trying to price us out of the flush. (Again i am new so i could be TOTALLY wrong here.)

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am completely baffled by those advocating a fold. You are getting 2.3:1 on your money with 15 outs (possibly more, possibly less). So, even without betting on the river this is a call. Add the probability that there will be river action, and it is obviously a situation you want to be involved in. Additionally, why on earth did we check the flop if we are going to fold on a dream card turn???

To those that advocate a raise... This would be a pretty lame bluff that gets snapped a hell off a lot more than a flop bluff. There is so much that he can call/push if we bluff here TT,99,44,KJ,J8,QT,T9,Q9,QJ are all possible holdings that can call a bluff. Unlike the flop, this board is NOT a good board to bluff into. Raising here does one thing: it commits half our stack on a 35% shot if he flat calls, and 100% of our stack on a 35% draw if he pushes. I like royal draws as much as the next guy, but I'm not about to cripple myself by betting the farm on the Royals to beat the Red Sox.

This is a flat call. I agree with those who have said that MJ is done with hand. I certainly hope that he doesn't wake up with a monster, but I can still reduce my hand to 11 outs and redo the math based on KJ for MJ and whatever he decides to raise. Additionally, it would be madness to bet on the river if we miss.

CSC

[/ QUOTE ]

nice post. i'm reconsidering.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly are we calling with here? He should be able to put you on a draw when you flatcall here and play accordingly.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nice post. i'm reconsidering.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, i might be moving over to the flatcall side too.. i think raising is +EV.. just calling looks like it's more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was in the raise camp but you know there has to be a "River" part of this exercise so it's obvious that Hero doesn't take it down here with a raise.

Side question to Lloyd: Are we to assume the 600 raise preflop and check on the flop were the "correct" plays?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Hero calls.

Hero should continue to play the hand weakly after checking the flop. What a waste. Hero is getting 2.3:1 to call the turn, and he probably has 13 outs but will only get paid on 4 of them, and is 2.6:1 against in the hand. Hero is getting about the right odds to call but now needs to rely on luck.

It's no longer credible that hero has AA-JJ, so hero probably has no FE as a Q is likely in one of villain's hands.

It's even worse for hero because if SB pushes hero should lay the hand down (unless CO calls too). I think hero should call anyways because SB has not made an effort to win the pot and might have led the turn with a hand (reducing his chance of having a hand since he did not lead the turn).

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Bugs, I agree with your post that showed the difficulty of getting a river to pay, however, sometimes the most obvious play is still the correct one. Also, I don't think it is asking too much that CO puts us on possibly AQ/KQ or possibly a busted str8 draw, busted flush draw on a river that completes one of our draws. If we hit the river, we can still bet 2500 or so and expect a call from many of CO's possible hands.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Also please note that you stand to win a big pot if a king comes and your opponent has a jack.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
To those that advocate a raise... This would be a pretty lame bluff that gets snapped a hell off a lot more than a flop bluff. There is so much that he can call/push if we bluff here TT,99,44,KJ,J8,QT,T9,Q9,QJ are all possible holdings that can call a bluff. Unlike the flop, this board is NOT a good board to bluff into. Raising here does one thing: it commits half our stack on a 35% shot if he flat calls, and 100% of our stack on a 35% draw if he pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we call I think we are only winning what is in the pot and losing everything else. I cannot think of a player who is not putting us on a draw with a flat call here. So when our draw hits we get nothing. And when our draw misses we just lost 1/5 of our stack.

The only reason I like a push is because of the fold equity we could gain. Winning the 3400 in the pot. I would say 20% of the time. And the 35% of the time when we get a call and hit our draw to become the big stack at the table.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Do you really think that the CO is going to check/fold his KJ when the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls on the river?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

You certainly cannot fold here, the one card you wanted (or didn't) to see just came off, MJ looks like hes done after checking again on this scary board, so I think it is safe you are seeing the river for this price. I don't like this board for a pot committing raise, and I can't fold , so I call given those odds and see what the river brings.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

With such a strongly worded disagreement about my choice from someone I respect, I feel the need to explain myself and at least attempt to convince you that a fold isn't a horrible play. We're in agreement about raising so I won't discuss that.

It's my opinion that CO can have almost anything at this point. I'd say a pocket pair is most likely but there aren't too many hands he could turn over that I would be surprised to see.

Now let's put MJ on a hand. Someone limped, we raised, and yet he still called. Based on the gap concept and Sirio's read, he's got a pretty good hand. Post flop I'd say AA-TT, AK-AJ, KQ. Maybe even tighter than that. Now his check on the turn narrows that down quite a bit. I agree MJ is likely done with the hand. His most plausible holdings, AK-AJ, KQ. All of which fully kill at least one our outs.

So now let's count outs. Nine clubs. But a 9 or 3 will pair the board and give CO a boat. So let's say thats 8.5 outs. We've got four K's but we've already counted for the flush. So thats, an additional 3 for 11.5 outs. Then the 3 aces. But those might not be clean. So I'll say 2 outs there. Total now is 13.5 outs. I'd be pretty worried if a J fell but I'll count the 3 of them as 1.5 outs. Then subtract at least one out that MJ was holding and we have 14 outs. So we're being give 2.29-1 odds. We're being asked to call 1500 to win currrently 3450. Which is 2.3-1.

Errrr. Ok. I give up. You win. Call is correct.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think that the CO is going to check/fold his KJ when the 2 falls on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he would fold it to a reasonable value bet. While you may get him to call a half a pot size bet, he isn't giving you too much.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

that range is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too tight sir

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Post flop I'd say AA-TT, AK-AJ, KQ. Maybe even tighter than that.

[/ QUOTE ] He did limp/call Pre-flop. I can't see a tight player doing this with AA-QQ, AK.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

yea he i think we can assume he wasn't trapping... cause if he was he would have raised it up preflop after MJ came along too.


And, like i said like an hour ago, raising will win you money, and to try and use stuff that i'm not so sure about.. has a higher standard deviation, so you're more likely to win big or lose big.. (but coming out slightly ahead in the deal)... and i think theres an argument for going to the big score here.

Is it ever right to take a slightly less +EV situation to try and get a bigger stack?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Stack size dictates a call.

With a shorter stack I can just jam without getting suspicious calls. With a deeper stack I have some more poker to play after my semibluff raise, though I don't hate a flat call there either.

But here.... you have a very good chance of getting a large percentage of your stack in the pot on the river if you hit. There is also no good way to take it down on the turn, save a bluff that kills a lot of the value of your hand and has questionable EV. MJ is highly unlikely to continue with the hand, and with any kind of made hand the CO can't just check/fold the river even if you get there. He could have a QJ or QT type hand and double you through when a K or baby club comes (or at least pay off a 3k value bet). Hell, even if he check/folds every river that hits you, the immediate pot is enough to validate a turn call.

I'm really getting curious to see the "masters" discussion of each of these streets.

Everett

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think that the CO is going to check/fold his KJ when the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, all of our opponents play perfectly and never pay you off when you hit your hand. Haven't you ever noticed this while playing in the past?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

What else would you include? I'd consider adding pocket pairs but thats about it. I can't see him limping behind with KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Agreed. Thats why I said I could probably tighten it up even more.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I just call the turn. Co has over twice your chip stack and very likely has a set or two pair that will call your push because of the chance that you are betting a draw or AQ/KQ or AA here.

If villain's hand truly is weak enough to fold to a bet on the turn then you may get a better sense of this by his behavior on the river and may be able to pick up the pot there. Most likely though, I'm just planning to value bet the river if I make my hand with the intention of folding if I miss. I'm counting on villain paying off a value bet on the river because he's got a mountain of chips and my draw is pretty disguised.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

This is exactly the situation I was hoping for in my post on the flop. I put in a pot-sized semi-bluff raise, 'cause it sure looks like someone made their hand with that card, and after my check-behind on the flop, it looks like it's me. I then call any reraise knowing I have about a billion outs.

Smooth-calling is also a possibility, although it could induce a big check-raise from MJ. Assuming no check-raise, I'd find out for sure whether I have the best hand, and might collect a little more from an overcall.

The trouble with calling is that even if I end up making my hand on the river, I might not get any more action, as the board will be seriously scary at that point.

All in all I like a raise best.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

This is sticky. Things going for this situation. I've got lots of outs. Against. I'm caught in a sandwich positionally. MJ could be done with the hand, he might not be. That's a problem. The CO has got chips to burn and can bust my ass if I push and miss. That's another problem. I hate to fold because of the position problem, but I'm not jammin this pot just yet either. I know it's weak but I'm just gonna call and gamble that MJ isn't going to push and squeeze me out of the pot. I'm not married to this hand either. If MJ pushs and the CO folds Im gone too. Still plenty of chips left and time to play.

Yours Koy

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Let's start with hand ranges:

MJ: He called from the SB, then checked the flop and checked the turn. Any made hand would need to have bet at least once by now, since slowplaying on this board into two players is suicide. This is given weight by his reputation as being aggressive (is this true? i'm ashamed to admit I don't know Miami John, so I have no idea how he plays.). Unless he's making a very strange move, I figure we can count him out of this hand.

CO: CO probably doesn't have a set -- why would he check the flop? Since he's a tight player and there are two others in the hand, he would probably bet the flop with a set, especially since there is a draw out there. Given the previous action, he didn't turn the set either. Given his description as being tight, I doubt he bets a naked draw here, especially given there are two other people in the hand. So this leads me to believe CO has one of the following hands: QJ, Q10, QK, KJ, or maybe J10.

Hero's options are to either call or raise.
Call:
Pro = good pot odds (~2 1/3 to 1, while against most of villain's hand range we're about 38% to win the hand). Also, in the off chance MJ wants to stay in the hand, this will make it easier for him to call. Since we're only staying in on the river if we hit our draw, we welcome his presence in this pot.
Con = unlikely to get much more out of Villain if one of our draws hits (unless we're behind).
Raise:
Pros - Villain's likely holdings aren't really premium hands, so we have a good deal of fold equity (especially since Villain is tight). I expect him only to reraise with KJ or maybe Q-10. Also, a raise here disguises our hand, making it likely that a larger river bet will get paid off.
Con - It would sure suck to get reraised when we could have drawn to our hand cheaply. We are exactly 3:1 underdog against KJ, but less than a 2:1 underdog against Q-10. Also, if Villain calls our raise and the river is a brick, we're in a tough spot. Any significant raise on the turn would be roughly half of our stack, so if Villain calls the turn he isn't going anywhere on the river.

I have homework to do, so I'm not going to do the math. However, I think it's a close decision. Given position, my monster draw, and fold equity, I would probably raise to ~t4500. Assuming I check/fold the river unimproved (like I said, if he calls this raise he's not going anywhere for what will be a less than 1/2 pot bet), it seems that this raise is more +EV than calling (depending on how much of a value bet Villain would be willing to call). Though I'm in bad tournament shape if Villain calls and I lose, I still have more than 20 BBs, so I'm not crippled.

If Villain raises, I vomit, kick myself in the balls, and push the rest of my chips in.

-cj

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

1 hand, 300+ posts and we've only just reached the turn with the experts' analysis still to come. This has all the makings of a book - one hand per chapter.

Now I've got some vacation reading, well-played Lloyd.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
1 hand, 300+ posts and we've only just reached the turn with the experts' analysis still to come. This has all the makings of a book - one hand per chapter.

Now I've got some vacation reading, well-played Lloyd.

[/ QUOTE ]who are the expert panel? or is it a secret

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Well it looks like we got what we wanted. With nut flush and OESD outs the turn helps us.

We are drawing but have many outs. I think I flat call here rather than raise and see the river some what cheaply.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

First thing to ask, IMHO, is "is this a bluff or semibluff?" Both are unlikely as the board is draw heavy, two opponents are in, and our read on CO is tight. I doubt he's betting 44-88 on this scary board either, but I'll throw in 88 to represent the small chance that he does. Of course, Harrington says to always give someone 10% chance of bluffing, and though I don't think it's likely here, I'll oblige. I also think his check on the flop doesn't tell us much, as he probably expected us to bet. So, hands in CO's preflop range that are betting here are something like:

KJ(12), QJ (9), TJ (9), 99(3), TT(3), 33(3), QT(9), KT(12), 89c(1), 88(6), 9T(9)
10% chance of bluffing is taken into account by adding all combos 56 suited, and 5c6s, 5s6h, 5s6d, 5d6c, for a total of 8 bluffing hands.

Against this range, we're a little worse than a 3-2 dog. We're getting better than 2-1 to call, and since MJ's declined to bet a draw-heavy board twice, we can assume that the -EV from a raise is more than countered by implied odds from CO (and maybe him) and the extra pot odds we get if he calls.

But what about raising? Any reasonable raise here would have to be a push, so if we raise, we push. Our stack now has 10.9k, so it'll be 9400 back to CO. The pot'll have 3k + 1950 + 9.4k = t14350 in it. Let's say CO instantly folds all of his bluffs (8), 88 (6), and TK(12). We're laying him 1.53:1, so he needs to think he has 18 outs to call on a draw. His "drawing" hands have that many, so he'll fold them, or TJ(9) and 89c (1). I'll be pessimistic and assume he calls with QJ or better. That means he's folding 38/84 = ~45% of hands.

Against his calling range, we're 31/69.

So, 45% of the time, we end with t14350. 55% of the time he calls. When he calls, we end up with t0 69% of the time and t23750 31% of the time. So, our total (not net) cEV on the play is .45 * 14350 + .55*(.31*23750 + 0) = t10506.

Thus, this play is clearly -cEV given my assumptions. Given that this is a tourny and this play risks our entire stack, I think this play is -EV (if not -cEV) given any reasonable assumptions. Thus, calling is correct.