Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

In my opinion, there is no way the Giants win this game "handily". They may win, but no way is it "handily".

There is at least a little value (acknowledging that we are only 5 games in) in the fact that Dallas hasn't beaten anyone yet this year, while losing the two games it had against a "decent" team; while the Giants have a good win at Atlanta and the miracle at Phila.

No argument about the score of the Giants/Philly game not accurately reflecting the game. The Dallas loss to Philly should have been 31-24. Still a loss (but a competitive game). By the same token, the score of the Dallas-Houston game may not be a fair depiction of that game, which HOUSTON was winning at the half 6-3, in Dallas. My personal view also is that the Tennessee game was more competitive than the score (Vince Young's first game), but reasonable people might disagree about that.

All I'm really trying to say is that, if the Giants are getting more than a FG here (and they are in many places, although by now I think most of the prices are more than -110), I don't see how you don't take it if you are playing the game; and I don't see how you would want to lay more than 3 on the Dallas side, which people seem to be supporting. But whatever you decide, good luck.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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I dont see how the stats you posted reach the conclusion that the Giants win handily.

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Agreed. You should never make a decision based solely on random stats. There's more to interpret when handicapping, and I believe Dallas has played better football this year.

The Giants were hyped to be a Superbowl team by many, and they haven't shown that by far, regardless what a couple of numbers say, I'm talking about how they've looked on the field as a team.

I'm sticking with Dallas -3, I do believe it's very much more likely than NYG "winning this with ease" as so many have suggested. Guess we'll see.

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The stats he posted don't show that the NYG will win "handily."

They are, however, far from random stats. Common opponents and strenght of schedule should play a role in handicapping, and the extent of which is debatable. To ignore it is wrong, IMO.

I won't be betting this game, but I think the Giants will win.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Well said Niss.

Looks like a tough division game, with turnovers and intangibles determing the outcome.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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I dont see how the stats you posted reach the conclusion that the Giants win handily.

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From my perspective, NYG have proved that they are "for real" - they have only lost to good teams (5-0 Indy and 4-2 Seattle), and have beaten some good teams (Atlanta who are 4-2, and Philly who are 4-3).

Dallas has beaten no one (Wash, Hou, Ten), and lost to any even marginally good team they have played (Jax who are 3-3, and Philly, who are 4-3).

I don't believe in taking into account "what the score deserved to be" (as you might be tempted to in the common games vs Philly - definitely, the final result there flatters the Giants, and makes Dallas look worse than they might be). Whatever you feel, the game ended up how it did.

My (much maligned) system came up with Giants as a 9 point favorite in this game. Guess we'll see.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Everyone riding dallas needs to take into account that the Giants pass rush has become effective the past two weeks. And last week was not an easy pass rush game either against Vick. The game for dallas rides on the offensive lines shoulders. I have Giants as slight edge on this game so I will take them.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

I am wondering how often the road team in this series is ever favored, vs how many times the road team wins outright?

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Giants + under teased seems like the best bet

I don't think this game will be as high scoring as most would assume.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

I like the Giants. They're better on offense at every position except WR, and their defense, IMO, is at least a little better than most people think, especially against Drew Bledsoe, the Human Sack Machine. I think Dallas is a pretty average team overall, while the Giants are above average -- they shouldn't be giving the full 3-3.5 on the road.

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My (much maligned) system came up with Giants as a 9 point favorite in this game. Guess we'll see.

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My system (based on DVOA) says Dallas -2.5 is the right line. How does yours come up with New York -9?

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Brandon Lang and many other touts are on Dallas. The touts also seem to be leaning on the under tonight.

Personally, I think the side is a no-play, but if I had to pick one, I'd go with Dallas.

What I like is the over. So hopefully it drifts down some more.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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Everyone riding dallas needs to take into account that the Giants pass rush has become effective the past two weeks.

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This is a good point that warrants a bit of expansion. This does not seem to be a fluke, for 3 reasons:

1. The Giants have a whole bunch of new people in the secondary, and a few new LBs. It naturally takes time for a defense to "gel". Sam Madison, for example, was easily the worst defensive player for the Giants over the first 3 games. He has been one of the best the last 2 (this may be for a variety of reasons, including some that have little to do with the player himself, such as the fact that the passing offenses of their last 2 opponents are not as good as the passing offenses of their first 3).

2. Tim Lewis made "adjustments" to the defense during the bye week. These adjustments supposedly simplified the Giants schemes. He did the same thing last year, and the defense showed marked improvement immediately.

3. The Giants' defense the past two weeks has been more like the D last year -- specifically with respect to pass rush -- than the "D" (and I use that letter loosely) that showed up during the first 3.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

I think I have been talked into a Giants bet. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Giants may have made improvments but they just improved from a bad defense to a decent one

Your not going to shut down Julius Jones/Marion Barber/Witten/Glenn/Owens

Giants just need to slow them down...and hopefully Eli doesn't screw the pooch...which with the Dallas D at home is more likely to happen than not happen.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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I like the Giants. They're better on offense at every position except WR, and their defense, IMO, is at least a little better than most people think, especially against Drew Bledsoe, the Human Sack Machine. I think Dallas is a pretty average team overall, while the Giants are above average -- they shouldn't be giving the full 3-3.5 on the road.


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I think giving the Giants an edge on the Oline is debatable. Both the "sack machine" and the fact that opposing defenses know they're playing against that sack machine and blitz accordingly makes the Cowboys OL look worse than it is.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

guys,

there's more games next week.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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guys,

there's more games next week.

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Sure, but these kind of discussions are awesome IMO.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Not to mention, next week's games suck. Cincy -3.5 is my favorite game right now and I always pick against Cincy.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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I think I have been talked into a Giants bet. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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Yeah I felt pretty good about Dallas and now I'm starting to over think. At 5D they are offering NYG team total over 20 for -115, I think I might just say [censored] the overall winner and jump on this. Anyone else thinking of this play?

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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I like the Giants. They're better on offense at every position except WR, and their defense, IMO, is at least a little better than most people think, especially against Drew Bledsoe, the Human Sack Machine. I think Dallas is a pretty average team overall, while the Giants are above average -- they shouldn't be giving the full 3-3.5 on the road.


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I think giving the Giants an edge on the Oline is debatable. Both the "sack machine" and the fact that opposing defenses know they're playing against that sack machine and blitz accordingly makes the Cowboys OL look worse than it is.

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No doubt Bledsoe's proclivity for sacks makes Dallas' line looks worse than it is, but it's still not as good as the Giants' line. Here. Giants are first in Adjusted Line Yards (Dallas is 2nd, actually), 2nd in Power Rushing success (Dallas is 17th), and 9th in avoiding getting stuffed (Dallas is 27th). New York's Adjusted Sack Rate is also better, 5.8% to 7%, though that's probably the result of having Bledsoe behind center as much as anything.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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My system (based on DVOA) says Dallas -2.5 is the right line. How does yours come up with New York -9?

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My system is based on last year's performance as well as this year's, focusing on win/loss, road win/loss, margin of victory, and strength of opponent. NYG started higher ranked this year, and has widened the gap by beating some good teams, while Dallas has not improved their ranking with their results this year.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

I teased NYG +9 and total under 51

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

i'm on o43 - go me

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Dallas should win this by 7-10. TO likes Mon nite. Giants pass defense is questionable.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

I like the Giants and the under. Bledsoe throws a few INTs, gets sacked a bunch... Giants win 24-13.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

I took the Giants, the under, and the first half under. GL me.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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My (much maligned) system came up with Giants as a 9 point favorite in this game

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If the game was over now, I'd be a genius!

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

I teased it. Giants +9 over 37.5.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Not a bad start though if you are on NYG.

Think about how far ahead they'd be if Eli Manning could hit the short to medium pass with any amount of accuracy.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

GO ELI!!!!!!!!

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

<3 Bledsoe

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

lol what is road Drew doing here? Bring back home Drew.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

got the sack prop bet on lock, but so many points left on the field my over bet has no shot it seems, booo-urns

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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I took the Giants, the under, and the first half under. GL me.

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First half under was a gift.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Need 9 more Giants points to win.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Maybe I'll get lucky and Romo will throw 4 TD passes... to the Giants. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

more points left on the field, nice catch TO!

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Well GG Giants. Clearly they're the division's best team and I was way off. I've noticed my picks pan out much better when I stfu.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

1 more TD to hit my teaser over. I have a question though, is the max you can put on Pinnacle 1,000 for teasers per bet or total? Like could I make two 1,000 teaser bets? Thx

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

Damn, I had Giants -6.5 (+325) to win the second half. That two point conversion is gonna screw me.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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Well GG Giants. Clearly they're the division's best team and I was way off. I've noticed my picks pan out much better when I stfu.

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Jinx.

Re: MNF - Giants @ Boys
 

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1 more TD to hit my teaser over.

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I made the same tease, Giants and the Over. Looking good for us. I actually planned on only betting the alternate low line over but missed it, so went with the tease.